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投资理财

巴菲特警告:看似安全的债券或许暗藏危机

彭博社 2018年03月07日

巴菲特指出债券存在风险,并强调坚守简单的投资策略至关重要。

有时最好的经验值得反复重申。

身价亿万的投资家沃伦·巴菲特星期六发布了众所瞩目的致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)股东年度信。他再次指出,把钱花在资本经营者收取的手续费上是一种浪费。他特别指出债权的风险性,并强调坚守简单的投资策略至关重要,远胜于追逐收益。

“业绩有好有坏,”巴菲特写道:“但手续费永远不变。”

今年的信明显短于往年。作为伯克希尔的董事长兼首席执行官,他在信中阐释了人们应当从他和Protege Partners所做的慈善赌约中应当获取的投资经验。巴菲特跟这家资产管理公司进行对赌,后者挑选了一组它认为未来十年业绩能够超过标普500指数的对冲基金。12月31日,赌约到期,指数基金轻松获胜。

巴菲特鼓励投资者们坚持投资股票,即使股票短期内风险较高。

“对于那些投资养老基金,大学受捐赠基金和储蓄基金等的长期投资者来说,以投资组合中债券与股票的比率来衡量其投资‘风险’可谓大错特错,”巴菲特写道:“很多时候,投资组合中的优质债券风险也相应较高。”

他在信中以较大篇幅阐述了伯克希尔2017年的业绩,近期美国税改让公司获得巨大收益,不过这家总部位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的大型企业在保险业务上出现了罕见的承保亏损。

他还讨论了寻找大规模收购所面临的挑战。伯克希尔的现金储备充裕,可巴菲特表示,他去年意欲收购的大多数企业都过于昂贵。这位87岁的投资家一再重申,尽管他“感觉比任何时候都好”,但公司确实正在寻找继任者。

“我们的董事知道我的推荐人选,”他写道:“所有候选人目前都在伯克希尔工作,或者可以加入伯克希尔,我对他们都充满信心。”(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

Sometimes the best lessons are worth repeating.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett used his widely-read annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders on Saturday to again call out the wasteful fees that many money managers charge. He highlighted the risk of bonds and emphasized the importance of sticking with a simple investment strategy, rather than chasing returns.

“Performance comes, performance goes,” Buffett wrote. “Fees never falter.”

The letter, which was notably shorter than in years past, meditated on the investing lessons that the Berkshire chairman and chief executive officer thinks people should take away from his charitable bet against Protege Partners. Buffett challenged the asset manager to pick a group of hedge funds that it thought would beat an S&P 500 Index fund over 10 years. When the wager concluded on Dec. 31, the index fund had won easily.

Buffett urged investors to stick with stocks even though they can be riskier in the short-term.

“It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons — among them, pension funds, college endowments and savings-minded individuals — to measure their investment ‘risk’ by their portfolio’s ratio of bonds to stocks,” Buffett wrote. “Often, high-grade bonds in an investment portfolio increase its risk.”

He also spent much of the letter explaining Berkshire’s results for 2017, which were aided by a huge gain on the recent U.S. tax overhaul. The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate’s insurance businesses, however, posted a rare underwriting loss.

He also discussed some of the challenges to finding large acquisitions. Cash has been piling up at Berkshire, but Buffett said most of the businesses he looked to buy last year were too expensive. The 87-year old reiterated that while he’s “never felt better,” the company has a succession plan in the works.

“Our directors know my recommendations,” he wrote. “All candidates currently work for or are available to Berkshire and are people in whom I have total confidence.”

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