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特朗普将遭弹劾已成定局?彩民这么想

Lucinda Shen 2017年05月23日

彩民们差不多已经肯定,特朗普总统要回到他金碧辉煌的大楼里专心做生意去了。

 

据英国博彩公司立博集团(Ladbrokes)政治博彩业务主管马修•沙迪克介绍,立博网站的最新下注情况表明,彩民们认为特朗普坚持不到第一个任期结束的可能性为60%。而去年11月美国大选刚刚结束时,这个数字为25%。

代表必发(Betfair)博彩网站的李•普莱斯写道:“实际上几乎没有人为特朗普不被弹劾下注——总的下注人数真的是屈指可数。”

与此同时,这几天“弹劾”一词越发引人关注,原因是对特朗普开除联邦调查局局长詹姆斯•科米是出于何种动机的质疑声一浪高过一浪。

然而,就算特朗普真的遭到弹劾,现在或许已经不值得为此下注了。

如果在11月份大选结束后立即下注,赌特朗普会在首个任期内被弹劾;再让我们假设,这位投注者是特斯拉汽车的粉丝,而且一直在为备受期待的特斯拉Model 3攒钱。这款车报价35000美元,而这位彩民当时只需下2200美元的注,就能挣到全部购车款。也就是说,押1美元就能赢回16美元,只是这位投注者只能在特朗普真的被弹劾后才能拿到这笔彩金。

现在的彩金则要少得多。如果上面那位投注者决定押特朗普遭弹劾,那么要想赢一辆Model 3,就得下35000美元的注。简而言之就是押1美元得1美元。

就连和莫妮卡•莱温斯基的丑闻闹的最凶的时候,彩民们也不认为比尔•克林顿有可能遭到弹劾。当时的赔率是1赔6。

不过,不能真的基于博彩市场来判断弹劾的可能性。

沙迪克说,在立博网站上下注的大多数彩民都不是美国人,而且大多数下注者都是博彩业余爱好者。

他指出:“把现任总统赶下台的传闻很多。[彩民们]对最新消息的反应可能过头了。”

此外,博彩网站体现出的弹劾可能性各不相同。在Predict-It(predictit.org)上下注的彩民认为弹劾特朗普的几率为30%,远低于其他博彩网站。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审稿:夏林

Based on the most recent influx of bets placed on U.K.-based Ladbrokes, users seem to see a 60% chance that Trump will not last his first term in office, according to Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting over at Ladbrokes. That's up from 25% immediately following the November elections.

" There’s virtually no one betting on him to not be impeached – in total, literally a single figure amount, " wrote Lee Price, a representative for Betfair.

That comes as the term "impeachment" has grown in notoriety over the past few days, as speculations over Trump's motivations for firing once-FBI Director James Comey continue to heat up.

But getting in on the bets now might not be worth it — even if the president is impeached.

If right after the November elections, a bettor decided to bet on Trump's impeachment within the first term. And say the bettor was a fan of Tesla, and had been saving up for the car maker's highly anticipated mass market Model 3 vehicle, quoted at $35,000 a piece. The bettor would have needed to put in just $2,200 to make the Model 3's worth back in full — or about $16 for every $1 bet — though he or she would only reap those winnings if Trump were indeed impeached.

The bet though is far less sweet now. If the same bettor decided to stake his or her funds on Trump's impeachment, the bettor would need to put in $35,000 on Betfair to earn back the Model 3's payment in full. In short, $1 for $1.

Even at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, bettors didn't think President Bill Clinton was as likely to be impeached. At that time, a $1 bet would reap $6 in return.

But how likely an impeachment is can't really be judge based on the betting markets.

Most bettors are Ladbrokes are not from the U.S. Moreover, most are amateur hobbyists, said Shaddick.

"There's been a lot of talk of removing the sitting president," Shaddick said. "[Bettors] are likely overreacting to the latest piece of news. "

Moreover, the odds vary from betting site to betting site, with bettors on Predict-It seeing a much lower, 30% chance of impeachment.

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