资深人士预言风险投资黄金时代即将到来

    考夫曼基金会（Kauffman Foundation）最近宣称，风投模式已死。合广投资（Union Square）的费雷德•威尔逊也说，风投模式可供使用的资金太多，因此无法成功。还有人选取了超过25个例子来证明风投模式已经破产。罗森投资公司（Sevin Rosen）在上世纪九十年代以个人电脑和电信硬件投资著称，但它在2006年放弃了一只新基金，退还投资，标志着这一死亡倒计时的开始。

    过去十年的平均风投回报确实很糟。康桥咨询公司（Cambridge Associates）2010年12月截止的10年累计美国风投回报指数变为负值（每年-2.0%），成为当时的头条新闻。该指数在2011年12月截止的10年间又猛增到每年3.3%，同时期纳斯达克指数平均回报每年2.9%。但是，考虑到风投投资的流动性不佳，因为投资者应该得到比公开市场投资高出3%-5%的溢价。

    首先，我的一点看法：这些都是马后炮，提供有益信息但没有预测力。在“非理性繁荣”爆发的1998-2000年，超过2,000亿美元的资本涌入美国风投市场，此前该市场每年不过吸收50-100亿美元。这笔钱导致市场上资金严重供过于求，经过很久才逐渐消失。

    The venture capital model is dead, proclaimed the Kauffman Foundation recently. Too much available money for the VC model to succeed added Union Square's Fred Wilson. Another details 25+ stories on why the VC model is broken. Sevin Rosen, a firm known for PC and telecom hardware investments in the 1990s, started this death watch in 2006, when it aborted closing a new fund.

    Average VC returns for the last ten years do stink. Cambridge Associates made headlines when its 10-year cumulative U.S. VC return index went negative at (2.0%)/year in December 2010. The index popped up to 3.3%/year for the decade through December 2011. Over the same period the NASDAQ returned 2.9%/year. But, given the illiquid nature of VC investments, investors deserve a 3% - 5% premium, at least, over public markets.

    First, a bit of perspective: These are rear-view-mirror analyses, informative but not predictive. In the '98-'00 burst of "irrational exuberance," over $200 billion of capital flooded into the U.S. venture market, which had previously absorbed $5-$10 billion per year. This money put a huge supply overhang on the market that has taken time to disappear.