一群聪明又有经验的专业投资人士达成的共识为什么总是不对呢？答案很简单：投资合伙企业是趋同思维的完美温床。维基百科（Wikipedia）将趋同思维定义为：“一种发生在群体内部的心理现象……为了尽量避免冲突，群体成员没有对其他人的想法和观点进行批判性评估就达成了共识。”

    著名的趋同思维专家欧文•詹尼斯很好地阐述了风投合伙企业为什么会助长趋同思维的原因。他说，一些背景因素容易诱发趋同思维，包括：

    1. 群体具有很强的凝聚力

    2. 群体与外界相对隔绝

    3. 领导有失公正

    4. 缺乏有章可循的系统性规范

    5. 成员社会背景和意识形态的同质化

    风投合伙企业往往由凝聚力强、相对封闭的同质性人群构成——这正是趋同思维的理想温床。

    如何能避免趋同思维？只要自问两个问题，并尽可能不偏袒：

    How can it be that when a group of intelligent, seasoned investment professionals agree – they are often wrong? The answer is simple: Investment partnerships are the perfect breeding ground for groupthink. Groupthink, according to Wikipedia, is: "a psychological phenomenon that occurs within groups of people…. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative ideas and viewpoints."

    The reason venture partnerships foster groupthink is best articulated by Irving Janis, a pre-eminent researcher on groupthink. He suggests that certain contextual ingredients make groupthink more likely including:

    1. High Group Cohesiveness

    2. Group Insulation

    3. Lack of Impartial Leadership

    4. Lack of Norms Requiring Methodological Procedures

    5. Homogeneity of Members' Social Background and Ideology

    Venture partnerships are often cohesive, insulated, and homogeneous groups – a perfect breeding ground for groupthink.

    How do you protect against groupthink? I think you simply ask yourself two questions trying to be as impartial as possible: