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投资理财 - 市场走向

从棉花到煤炭:10种大宗商品价格大幅波动

Kevin Kaiser, Hedgeye 2011年03月04日

地缘政治风险加剧、宽松的货币政策加之新兴市场增长逐渐放缓,已造成部分大宗商品的价格在2011年剧烈波动。以下是10种值得关注的商品。

棉花
今年迄今价格变化幅度: 33.9.%

    继2月17日达到140年来最高位之后,棉花价格可能已经企稳。不过,这对于服装生产商也许鲜有慰藉作用,即便他们仍要应付萧条的消费境况,但也不得不涨价。较之去年,棉花价格仍上涨了130%,这也给新兴市场带来了不良影响。

    上周,印度服装出口促进委员会(AEPC)宣布,就出口量而言,日渐飙升的棉花价格可能会令印度今年的服装出口至少萎缩15%。

车打奶酪
今年迄今价格变化幅度: 47.7%

    多种因素已造成奶酪价格在短期内进一步飙升。首先,牛饲料(玉米、燕麦)成本升高已对终端产品造成影响。

    其次,诱人的奶牛屠宰价格似乎鼓励人们更多地将奶牛从牛群中筛选出来。

    第三,由于不利的天气状况给牧场造成负面影响,占全球乳制品贸易量40%的澳大利亚和新西兰已经下调了2011年牛奶产量预测。

可可
今年迄今价格变化幅度: 19.2%

    在重重政治冲突之下,科特迪瓦(旧称“象牙海岸”)总统阿拉萨内•瓦塔拉已将该国的可可出口禁令延长至2011年3月15日。这个西非国家是世界最大的可可生产国,约占全球供应量的40%。

    因此,可可价格达到32年来最高位,这将令今年春天的部分复活节礼品篮非常昂贵。

布伦特原油
今年迄今价格变化幅度: 18.3%

    由于俄克拉荷马州库欣市的石油供应过剩已使西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)指数落后于其他轻质、低硫等级石油,因此(至少就目前而言)布伦特原油似乎比WTI更能反映全球石油供需情况。

    由于利比亚国内骚乱,加之人们担心这种状况会蔓延,市场对今后的石油供应感到担忧,因此布伦特原油价格现在已达到2008年9月以来的最高水平。目前,中东地区生产的石油占全球石油产量57%。

谷物
今年迄今价格变化幅度: 7.5%

    美国农业部数据显示,由于生产商无法种植足够的谷物以紧跟消耗步伐,全球谷物库存量目前处于37年来最低水平。

    上一季的全球谷物收获量为21.8亿公吨,同比下降2.5%。据美国农业部估算,今年全球将消耗22.4亿公吨谷物。


今年迄今价格变化幅度: 0.4%

    对于全球经济增长而言,铜价疲软并不是一个好兆头。伦敦金属交易所记录的铜库存量目前达到2010年8月以来最高水平,而上海期货交易所监测的库存水平近期则跳升至9个月以来最高位,达到161,062吨。

黄金
今年迄今价格变化幅度: -0.7%

    关于这种黄澄澄金属的泡沫破灭了吗?也许还没有。

    通常,当实际利率为正且不断上升之时,黄金的表现却逊人一筹——这正是今年1月份黄金走势为20年来同月最差的原因。

    但当地缘政治风险升级时,黄金却表现良好,因此这种避险资产在过去5天内上涨了4%。

小麦
今年迄今价格变化幅度: -1.2%

    中东-北非地区买下了全球谷物装运量的32%,而埃及是全球最大的小麦出口国。这一地区的暴力冲突和骚乱将抑制对软性商品的需求,因此玉米、小麦和大豆的价格上周均出现下跌。

    就供应面而言,印度于上周宣布,由于该国本季谷物产量可能创下历史最高水平,印度可能允许小麦出口。

天然气
今年迄今价格变化幅度: -9%

    由于天然气需求旺季接近尾声,天然气价格目前徘徊在4美元/千立方英尺以下。今年的冬季极寒使美国天然气库存量较5年平均水平下降3%,但交易员充满信心,认为一旦下降季节结束,供应量将重新飙升。

    必和必拓(BHP Billiton)近期从Chesapeake Energy公司购得阿肯色州Fayetteville页岩气资产,计划使该页岩气项目的产量比目前水平提高两倍,此举证实了上述观点。

煤炭
今年迄今价格变化幅度: -8.9%

    中国、美国和印度是煤炭消耗量最大的三个国家。印度和中国的经济增长已经逐渐放缓,我们认为美国也将紧随其后。

    煤炭价格今年至今下跌9%,就这个领先指标来看,美国经济不容乐观。

Cotton
Year-to-date change: 33.9.%

    Cotton prices may have stabilized after hitting a 140-year high on February 17th. That may be little consolation to apparel producers, who have been forced to raise prices even as they're still coping with the sluggish consumer. Cotton is still up 130% over the last year, which is also hurting emerging markets.

    Last week the Apparel Exports Promotions Council of India announced soaring cotton prices are likely to crimp India's apparel exports by at least 15% in volume terms this year.

Cheddar cheese
Year-to-date change: 47.7%

    Several factors have rocketed the price of cheese higher in short order. First, higher feed costs for cattle (corn, oats) have made their way to the end product.

    Second, attractive slaughter cow prices appear to be encouraging much heavier culling of cows from the herd.

    And third, Australia and New Zealand, which account for 40% of the world's dairy trade, have scaled back milk production forecasts for 2011 due to adverse weather negatively impacting pastures.

Cocoa
Year-to-date change: 19.2%

    Alassan Ouattara, President of the Ivory Coast, has extended the country's ban on cocoa exports until March 15, 2011 amid political strife. The West African nation is the world's largest cocoa producer, accounting for about 40% of the global supply.

    As a result, cocoa prices are at a 32-year high, which should make for some very expensive Easter baskets this spring.

Brent Crude Oil
Year-to-date change: 18.3%

    It appears that (at least for now) Brent crude is more indicative of global supply and demand for oil than is West Texas Intermediate, as the glut of supply in Cushing, OK has caused WTI to lag other light, sweet grades.

    Brent crude is now at its highest level since September 2008 as violence in Libya and the fear of contagion has the market worried about future supply. Currently, the Middle East produces 57% of the world's oil.

Corn
Year-to-date change: 7.5%

    The US Department of Agriculture data shows that global corn inventories are at a 37-year low as producers are unable to grow enough grain to keep pace with consumption.

    The global grain harvest for the past season was 2.18 billion metric tons, down 2.5% year-over-year. The USDA estimates that the world will consume 2.24 billion metric tons of corn this year.

Copper
Year-to-date change: 0.4%

    Weakness in copper is not a good sign for global growth. Copper stockpiles tallied by the London Metal Exchange are at the highest level since August 2010, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently jumped to a nine-month high of 161,062 tons.

Gold
Year-to-date change: -0.7%

    Has the bubble burst for the yellow metal? Perhaps not yet.

    Gold underperforms when real interest rates are positive and rising -- that's why gold had its worst January in twenty years.

    However, gold performs well when geopolitical risks escalate, which is why this safe haven is up 4% in the last five days.

Wheat
Year-to-date change: -1.2%

    The Middle East-North Africa region buys 32% of global grain shipments and Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer. Violence and riots in the area will curb demand for soft commodities, which is why corn, wheat, and soy were down last week.

    On the supply side, India announced last week that it may permit wheat exports as the country may harvest a record crop this season.

Natural Gas
Year-to-date change: -9%

    As the peak demand season for natural gas comes to a close, natural gas is stuck under $4/Mcf. An extreme winter has US gas inventories 3% below the 5-year average, yet traders are confident that supply will come roaring back once the drawdown season ends.

    Supporting this, BHP Billiton plans to triple output from current levels in the Fayetteville shale in Arkansas, the assets that it recently acquired from Chesapeake Energy.

Coal
Year-to-date change: -8.9%

    China, the US, and India are the top three consumers of coal. Growth is already slowing in India and China, and we don't think that the US is far behind.

    Coal, which is down 9% year-to-date, is not a bullish leading indicator for economic strength in the US.

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