by Patricia Sellers

    Have we really hit bottom? Sandra Horbach, who heads the consumer and retail group at private equity giant Carlyle Group, says we have.

    Horbach and I chatted on stage this morning at the Women’s Alternative Investment Summit down on Wall Street. “Trailblazers Discuss the State of the Market,” the organizers called our session, suggesting that we both have survived cycles and seen a lot. Yes, we have. Horbach, who started her career at Morgan Stanley (MS), spent 18 years at Forstmann Little before moving to Carlyle in 2005. (Meantime, I’ve been at Fortune for 25 years.)

    At Carlyle, where she oversees a portfolio that includes Dunkin’ Donuts, Horbach operates out of an office right next to one of the all-time maestros of managing through tough times: Lou Gerstner, who turned around IBM (IBM) after stints atop RJR Nabisco (RAI) and American Express (AXP). “There are good-time CEOs and bad-time CEOs,” Gerstner has told Horbach many times–and yes, she heeds his advice.

    As a senior advisor at Carlyle, Gerstner was gloomy and cautious earlier than most investors, Horbach explained. And in line with his thinking, Horbach’s consumer/retail group has bought no companies–zero–in the past couple of years. While credit was tight and asset values were tumbling, “bad-time CEOs” ruled the roost. Or at least these sorts of take-no-prisoner cost-cutters were favored to run Carlyle’s portfolio companies.

    But about six months ago, Horbach says, Gerstner and a few others at the firm began urging a shift from defense to offense–to look for growth and start doing deals again. So, yes, the “good-time CEO” is back in vogue. Though, importantly, a new breed will be in demand. That is, CEOs who understand how to build the top line and do add-on acquisitions. Horbach predicts that we’re in for a “revenue-less recovery.”