订阅

多平台阅读

微信订阅

杂志

申请纸刊赠阅

订阅每日电邮

移动应用

专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果新品发布会让投资者沮丧

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2016年03月22日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果产品阵容的扩充和用户体验的增加,将会继续提高公司生态系统的影响力。苹果一步一步地做着这些,最终会让公司创造出下一个伟大的产品。这种模式没有变化,但我们认为这可能会让投资者沮丧。

Oppenheimer的分析师乌尔科维兹劝投资者把目光投向两年以后的未来。

Oppenheimer的分析师乌尔科维兹在上周五给客户的报告中写道:“我们担心,投资者会认为苹果(Apple)接下来的几次发布会平平无奇。”

“尽管我们希望看到苹果对各设备的‘内部功能’进行一些改进,但我们不认为苹果能再次造成去年公布Apple Watch最后细节时引发的轰动。”

他说得很有道理。对我来说,苹果即将在本周二出席的圣贝纳迪诺庭审,带来的激动恐怕更甚于传闻周一发布会要推出的产品:4英寸的iPhone,9.7英寸的iPad Pro,新的Watch表带和OS系统的升级。

所以,似乎是为了证明自己对苹果的“出色”评价绝非毫无根据,乌尔科维兹忽略了这次周一的发布会,发布了一篇报告,名为《看看我们的预言水晶》。

以下是他认为苹果未来两年会采取的政策(下文引用自这篇报告):

争夺智能手机摄像头领域的领导地位:iPhone的摄像头很好地体现了苹果利用现成配件,结合优秀的软件工程技术,从而在竞争中脱颖而出的能力。我们预计,之后推出的iPhone会有许多调整——其中360度全景视频和深度感测是最有可能出现的新功能。

Siri——苹果各设备上的人工智能助手:我们相信苹果会进一步扩大Siri的适用范围。我们认为,苹果在今年会鼓励第三方开发者以更多有意义的方式与Siri联系起来,借此应对“OK Google”和Amazon Echo。

另一项技术——虚拟现实:我们认为苹果正在根据显示技术上可能出现的变化(发光二极管)、图形处理器的改进(最近的迭代使得图形处理器性能不断翻倍)以及更加复杂的感测融合技术的引入,打造一款移动虚拟现实头盔。这几项技术让苹果的虚拟现实头盔得以利用现有的iPhone和iPad。

循序渐进的改善:我们认为苹果还可能在硬件和软件上逐渐进行一些不太重要的改善,包括防水性能的提高,电池寿命的延长,更轻薄的工业设计,新材料的使用,同时增强和扩大对家庭套件HomeKit、健康套件HealthKit、车载系统CarPlay和苹果支付Apple Pay的兼容性。

结论:我们认为苹果产品阵容的扩充和用户体验的增加,将会继续提高公司生态系统的影响力。这使得公司能吸引和留住之前从未接触过的用户。苹果一步一步地做着这些,最终会让公司创造出下一个伟大的产品。这种模式没有变化,但我们认为这可能会让投资者沮丧。

值得一提的是,乌尔科维兹预测未来时,没有提到苹果的汽车或是电视流媒体服务。

译者:严匡正

Oppenheimer’s Uerkwitz urges investors to look ahead to the next two years.

“We worry investors will find the next several Apple media events underwhelming,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz in a note to clients Friday.

“While we expect to see several ‘under the hood’ improvements across devices, we are not expecting the same exuberance as last year when Apple shared final details of the Apple Watch.”

He’s got a point. Tuesday’s San Bernardino court hearing holds more excitement for me than the rumored line-up for Monday’s “in the loop” event: 4-inch iPhone, 9.7-inch iPad Pro, new Watch bands, OS updates.

So Uerkwitz, as if to justify his “outperform” rating on Apple, cast his mind beyond Monday’s event and put out a report titled “Looking into Our Crystal Ball.”

Here’s what he sees coming from Cupertino over the next two years (I quote):

Capturing Leadership in Smartphone Cameras: The iPhone cameras best embody Apple’s ability to elevate off-the-shelf components with superior software engineering skills to differentiate themselves from competition. We believe a series of major overhauls are in line for the upcoming iPhones—we see 360 video and depth sensing as the most likely new features.

Siri—The Omnipresent AI Assistant Across All Devices: We believe Apple will continue to push wider deployment of Siri. This year, we believe Apple will encourage third-party developers to link with Siri in more meaningful ways, as a counterattack to “OK Google” and Amazon Echo.

One More Thing—VR: We believe Apple has been building up to release a mobile VR headset based on potential changes in display technology (OLED), GPU improvement (consistent doubling of performance in recent iterations), and the introduction of more sophisticated sensor fusion, all of which will allow Apple to introduce a VR headset that utilizes current iPhones or iPads.

Incremental Improvements: Other non-essential improvements we believe Apple may gradually roll out for its hardware and software are weather proofing, better battery life, lighter and thinner industrial designs, introduction of new materials, and enhancement and expanding partnerships for HomeKit, HealthKit, CarPlay, and Apple Pay

Bottom Line: We believe Apple’s broadened device line-up and improving user experience will continue to add leverage to its ecosystem, allowing the company to engage and retain users previously untouched. It does this in small steps—and ultimately enables the company to create the next big thing. We don’t see this model changing—but we do believe it could frustrate investors.

Note that when Uerkwitz looked into his crystal ball, he saw neither a car nor a streaming TV service.

我来点评

最新文章:

中国煤业大迁徙

500强情报中心

财富专栏