最近我和一些专家探讨了新兴市场，谈话重点是消费者的行为——目前这是一个重要问题，原因在于，在许多新兴市场，中产阶级在不断壮大，而且中国政府的政策旨在将这个全球第二大经济体的增长基础从投资和出口转向消费。但眼下出现了几个新趋势，其中一些出人意料。了解这些趋势对投资者和生意人来说至关重要。

    • 随着收入由低到高，消费者的支出会首先用于摄取热量，这很自然。随后，在人均年收入达到1500美元左右时，他们就会把支出用于更多地从蛋白质中摄取热量。接下来，他们很快就会开始把钱用在熟悉的消费品上，比如个人护理产品，甚至是较大的物品，特别是空调。10年来，中国的人均空调保有量直线上升。但对手机的渴望经常会让这种趋势在刚刚出现时就受到影响。和我会面的专家们指出，许多新兴市场消费者都会为了通讯而放弃营养。Facebook创始人马克•扎克伯格的看法是，互通信息是人们的权力。他当然会这么说，但也许会有很多人认同他的观点。

    • 消费者想要更好的出行条件，但这方面的趋势不像我们所想的那么明显。在印度，一家四口同骑一辆摩托车不是什么不寻常的现象，所以我们认为他们会想要一辆轿车。他们确实是这么想的——直到有车的人太多时，人们就会想要摩托车，以便绕开堵在路上的轿车。

    • 随着经济成熟，一个特别明显的趋势是，人们非常想得到当地的高档酒。越南的竹管酒、菲律宾的椰酒和中国的白酒——当人们（好吧，准确说是男人们）的口袋里有了一点儿可支配收入的时候，他们显然觉得非常有必要在买酒方面比以前多花点钱。

    • 但政府可以遏止某种趋势。中国的奢侈品市场曾经飞速增长，直到国家主席习近平表示奢侈铺张不好，特别是政府官员。多年来一直很红火的中国奢侈品市场去年基本上在原地踏步。

    • 以前消费者购买的许多产品现在都可以分享，或者作为服务来消费。在农村贫困地区，大家会共用一部手机。不像固定电话，共享手机很容易。通过类似于Zipcar的租车服务，城镇地区的消费者可以只在自己需要的时候用车。这样，在迈向繁荣的过程中，他们消费大宗产品的时间会远早于以往。

    • 我们都知道，新兴市场消费者将重组世界经济秩序。但如果西方消费者想当然地以为自己明白具体的过程，就会碰到麻烦。一定要关注现实发生的趋势。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    As I was talking recently with a group of experts on emerging markets, we focused on consumer behavior -- an important issue now as many of those markets build growing middle classes, and Chinese government policy aims to shift the world's second-largest economy from being investment- and export-based to being consumer-based. A few trends, some surprising, emerged as vital for investors and business people to understand:

    • As incomes rise from low levels, consumers first spend money on more calories, naturally enough, and then, somewhere around $1,500 of annual per capita income, they spend in order to get more of those calories from protein. Soon after that they start spending on familiar consumer goods, such as personal care products and even on larger capital goods, notably air conditioners; the number of air conditioners per capita in China has rocketed in the past decade. But this early progression is often disrupted by a desire for a cell phone. The experts said that many emerging-market consumers will sacrifice nutrition for connection. Facebook's (FB) Mark Zuckerberg argues that connectivity is a human right. Of course he would say that, but his position may well become widely shared.

    • Consumers want better transportation, but the progression isn't as obvious as we may think. In India it isn't unusual to see a family of four on a motor scooter, so we expect them to want a car. Which they do -- until too many people get cars, and then people want scooters in order to get around the cars that are stuck in traffic.

    • A remarkably consistent trend as economies mature is a strong desire for a premium version of the local hooch. Ruou in Vietnam, Lambanog in the Philippines, the infamous Baijiu in China -- when people (okay, men) get a little disposable income in their pockets, they apparently feel a powerful need to pay more for booze than they used to.

    • But governments can stop trends. The growth of the luxury goods market in China was stupendous until President Xi Jinping decreed that ostentation is now uncool, especially among government officials. After years of booming, the luxury goods market was virtually flat in China last year.

    • Many products that consumers used to buy can now be shared or consumed as services. In poor rural villages, groups of people will jointly get a cell phone, which is easily shared, unlike a landline phone. Urban consumers employ Zipcar-like services to use a car only when they need it. As a result, these people can consume major products much earlier in their rise to prosperity than previously.

    • We all know that emerging market consumers will reorder the world economy. But we Western consumers will get into trouble if we assume we know how it will happen. The real trends demand attention.