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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果设备销量今年有望超越Windows PC

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年01月16日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
微软颠峰时期,Windows PC销量曾经是Mac电脑的56倍。不过,随着采购权从首席信息官逐渐下移到亿万消费者自己手中,苹果设备的销量今年有望超越了Windows PC。而且,这种变化是不可逆的。

    图为1984年至2013年期间PC总销量与各类苹果设备销量的对比图。来源:Asymco
 

    在本文所附的图表中,微软(Microsoft)Windows PC同Mac、iPad、iPhone以及iPod touch等四类苹果(Apple)设备被硬生生放在一起进行比较。

    虽然这样的比较有些不合常规,但Asymco的贺拉斯•德迪欧本周一发布此图表是为了表达一个重要的观点。

    上世纪八、九十年代,计算平台的决策权最初掌握在企业手中,后来转移到开发商手中,随后又转移到那些借鉴已确定标准的个人手中……那时,只要说服500名(首席信息官这种)有权设定采购标准的人就能使某个平台胜出。

    如今,移动产品存在着数十亿决策者。区区500个(采购)决策不值一提。事实上,虽然苹果至少有5亿忠实、而且掏得起钱的用户,它在(华尔街)眼中仍然朝不保夕。

    归根结底,采购者和最终受益者之间的中间人消失,使得微软对于购买决策的控制权消失。这种情况不是不大可能扭转,而是根本不可能扭转。计算决策权已经转移到数十年的最边缘处。电脑不仅已经是个人使用,而且是个人拥有。

    德迪欧在图表的脚注中提到,2012年,他曾预测iOS以及OS X设备的总销量将在2013或2014年赶上Windows设备。现在看来,他没有说错。

    更新:本文之前附的是Asymco制作的另一幅图表,但部分读者认为之前的图表不好理解。点击下面的链接,可看到前后两个版本。(财富中文网)

    译者:项航      

    Oranges are being compared with Apples in the attached chart. Or rather, Microsoft (MSFT) Windows PCs with four kinds of Apple (AAPL) devices -- Macs, iPads, iPhones and iPod touches.

    But Asymco's Horace Dediu, who posted it Monday, is bending the rules to make a serious point:

    In the 1980s and 1990s computing platform decisions were made first by companies then by developers and later by individuals who took their cues from what standards were already established... A platform could win by convincing 500 individuals who had the authority (as CIOs) to impose through fiat a standard on the centers of gravity of purchasing power.

    Today, with mobile products there are billions of decision makers. 500 decisions mean nothing. In fact, Apple with at least 500 million loyal and wealthy users is considered [by Wall Street] to be in a precarious situation...

    Ultimately, it was the removal of the intermediary between buyer and beneficiary which dissolved Microsoft's power over the purchase decision. It's not just unlikely that this situation will be reversed, it's impossible. Computing decision making has moved to the furthest edge where use has been for decades. The computer has become personal not just in the sense of how it's used but in the sense of how it's owned.

    In footnote, Dediu mentions that in 2012 he predicted that iOS plus OS X would catch up to Windows in 2013 or 2014. He's not wrong yet.

    UPDATE: An earlier version of this story showed a different Asymco chart that some readers had trouble interpreting. Both versions are available at the link below.

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