美国风险投资协会（National Venture Capital Association）和汤森路透（Thomson Reuters）日前公布的数据显示，去年风投通过并购方式只出售了388家公司。这是2009年以来的最低水平，较2012年下降了近23%。

    听起来很糟糕。但事实或许并非如此。

    IPO市场走势强劲之时，比如就像2013年，风投资本家们通常都不愿通过出售来退出势头最好的公司。当然会有例外，比如轻博客Tumblr作价11亿美元卖给了雅虎（Yahoo）。但大多数优秀的公司要么IPO，申请IPO，要么预计在未来1、2年内将进行IPO（比如，AirBNB，Box，Dropbox，Square，Spotify，等等）。

    这意味着大多数并购标的要么是中不溜的公司，以低于面值价格出售，要么是运营不善，以白菜价出售。为什么这些交易只有25-35%公布了交易额？这就是原因。没人愿意公布投资（或收购）一家公司的价钱可能还不如我已有七年车龄的丰田普瑞斯（Toyota Prius）。

    但如果风投出售的公司数量少于过去多年，可能事实上意味着风投的回报得到了提高。特别是，如果公布交易的平均交易额仍相对健康（在1.61亿美元左右）。不然，就是我的反直觉中有什么漏洞？（财富中文网）           

    Venture capitalists sold only 388 companies via mergers or acquisitions last year, according to data released this morning by the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters. It is the lowest such total since 2009, and nearly a 23% decline from 2012.

    Sounds pretty bad. But it probably isn't.

    When the IPO market is strong, as it was in 2013, venture capitalists are typically loathe to exit their best companies via trade sales. Sure there are exceptions -- Tumblr to Yahoo (YHOO) for $1.1 billion, for example -- but most of the upper crust either went public, filed to go public or is expecting to go public within the next year or two (think AirBNB, Box, Dropbox, Square, Spotify, etc.).

    What that means is that most of the M&A targets either are middling companies being dumped around par, or failed companies being sold for scrap. That's why only 25-35% of these deals ever have their values disclosed -- no one wants to publicize having funded (or bought) a company that is now worth less than my seven-year-old Toyota Prius.

    So if VCs are selling fewer companies than in years past, then it may actually mean the VCs are generating higher returns. Particularly if the average value of disclosed deals remains relatively healthy (which it was, at around $161 million). Or is there a flaw in my counterintuition?