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专栏 - 苹果2_0

iPhone 5C首发当晚不用抢

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年09月17日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
上周五,iPhone 5C首发当晚并没有重现去年iPhone5首发时出现过的断货盛况。相反,各个颜色、各个型号的库存都相当充足。到底是因为市场需求不够强劲,还是因为供货充足?答案只有苹果自己清楚。不过,去年iPhone 5上市次日,苹果股票大涨;今年iPhone 5c首发次日,苹果股票却迅速掉头向下。

苹果商店iPhone 5c订购服务界面。

    刚开始,感觉似曾相识。

    和去年一样,我定了个凌晨3点(美国东部时间,是太平洋时间的午夜)的闹钟。醒来后,我打开Mac电脑、登陆苹果网店,只见该网站上赫然用10种语言放着“我们会尽快恢复服务”这样的标志。

    这种情况持续了近15分钟——就跟去年一样。当时,iPhone 5的订单太多,以至于苹果(Apple)的服务器不堪重负。

    但与去年不同的是,我最终通过Mac预订了一台我妻子挑选的白色iPhone 5C。我已经成功付款,送货日期定在9月20日。太棒了!要知道,去年我只有通过iPhone上的苹果商店才能成功下单。

    去年iPhone 5上市时,苹果库存在一小时内就销售一空——华尔街据此推算称iPhone 5的潜在购买者数量极多。所以,第二天早上股市9点半开盘后,苹果的股票立刻像坐火箭般地暴涨到了696.98美元的新高。短短两天之内,苹果市值就增加了409.8亿美元。

    三天后,苹果宣布在24小时内售出创纪录的200万部iPhone 5,是一年前iPhone 4S首发量的整整两倍。

    今年的情况则有些不同。开卖一小时后,iPhone 5C的库存仍然充足。即便四小时后,即美国东部时间早上9点,笔者正在写这篇文章时,用户依旧可以轻松地订购到16GB和32GB版iPhone 5C。所有颜色,所有美国运营商制式的版本苹果都承诺将在9月20日周五前发货。

    At first it felt like deja vu all over again.

    Just like last year, I set my alarm Friday morning for 3 a.m. Eastern (midnight Pacific), woke my Mac and went to the Apple Store, where the "We'll be back" sign was flashing in 10 different languages.

    This went on for nearly 15 minutes -- just like last year, when orders for the iPhone 5 were so heavy Apple's (AAPL) servers couldn't keep up.

    But unlike last year, when the only way I could make a purchase was through the iPhone Apple Store, I eventually connected on my Mac and pre-ordered the white iPhone 5C my wife had selected. Payment was taken and delivery set for Sept. 20, thank you very much.

    Last year Apple ran through its supplies of the iPhone 5 in less than an hour -- which Wall Street took as a sign of enormous pent-up demand. When the stock market opened at 9:30 a.m., Apple's shares rocketed to a new record high of $696.98, adding $40.98 billion to the company's market cap in the space of two days.

    Three days later, Apple announced that it had sold a record 2 million iPhones in 24 hours, double the record set one year earlier by the iPhone 4S.

    This year, by contrast, there were still plenty of iPhone 5Cs in stock an hour later. Also four hours later. And as I write this, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern, you can still pre-order a 16GB or 32GB iPhone 5C in any of five colors and on any of four U.S. carriers' networks and be guaranteed delivery by Friday 9/20.

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