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专栏 - 苹果2_0

如果让鲍尔默执掌苹果

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年08月28日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
曾经担任过微软Windows产品经理的本•汤普森说,如果微软即将离任的CEO担任苹果的掌门人,他一定会利润挂帅,不择手段地把苹果打造成一台超级高效的赚钱机器。但同时,苹果也会因此丧失安身立命的创新能力。可以说,本•汤普森一针见血地指出了微软与苹果最大的不同。

    微软CEO鲍尔默最近宣布将在一年内离职。

    本周一大量报道都在关注史蒂夫•鲍尔默离开微软(Microsoft)一事。假如只看其中一篇的话,我建议大家跳过卡拉•斯威舍大谈此事的八卦文章,因为它比微软披露这个消息的节奏更轻率。我建议大家直接上本•汤普森的博客stratechery,阅读其博文《如果让鲍尔默执掌苹果》(If Steve Ballmer ran Apple)。

    在这篇带有挑衅的博文中,前微软Windows产品经理汤普森设想,如果鲍尔默成为苹果的新任首席执行官,他将在今后五年有哪些动作,首先是推出iPhone 5C。

    鲍尔默……将推出我主张的低价iPhone,同时进军无补贴市场。在企业级市场,鲍尔默不会满足于那些自己送上门的公司客户;他还会积极争取各公司的首席信息官,同时对iPhone做出改变,以适应他们的需求。鲍尔默会扩展iPad产品线,推出多种屏幕尺寸、各种价位的版本,他还将争取让全世界每一个学区将该产品标准化,而且态度将远比现在的苹果要积极。鲍尔默将设法获得付款和身份信息,以利用iTunes以及那些与iTunes关联的信用卡。而在电脑领域,XMac甚至可能成为现实。

    当然,苹果(Apple)内部也少不了各种激励措施。销售团队将大力扩充,薪水也会直接与绩效挂钩;产品团队将疲于奔命地填补目前苹果产品线漏洞;营销团队恨不得把所有人的目光都吸引过来,从高高在上的公司首席信息官到发展中国家的普通百姓,无一遗漏。为了扩大用户群,苹果将不惜放低身段,全力迎合中国移动和NTT Docomo这类有特殊要求的运营商。如此一来,苹果的合作运营商数量将比三星多出一倍甚至两倍。

    收入和利润必将节节高升。

    汤普森最后一针见血的指出,微软与苹果的最大不同点在于,如果鲍尔默执掌苹果,苹果将再也无法推出颠覆性产品。

    汤普森认为部分原因在于克雷•克里斯藤森所提出的“创新者的窘境”——如果一家公司过于关注利润最大化,那么它将无法推出成功的新产品,因为新产品会冲击现有的利润率。而这样的公司也无法吸引并留住创新者。

    但是,汤普森指出,苹果的成功至少证明一点,利润或是激励奖金不是公司的核心价值。他写道:“设计这种事无法量化,用户体验就更不用说了。你难道能量化高兴和烦恼吗?”

    在个人消费市场,无法量化的东西才是关键所在。你得给消费者惊喜、欢乐,让他们为之欢呼雀跃。你开发的产品应当令开发人员心向往之,同时还能获得用户的信任。个人消费市场充满了无法量化的东西,微软的鲍尔默们永远无法看到这点,当然更无法领会。

    If you read only one story Monday morning about Steve Ballmer's departure from Microsoft (MSFT), skip Kara Swisher's gossipy piece about how it happened more precipitously than Microsoft let on and go straight to Ben Thompson's If Steve Ballmer ran Apple on his stratechery blog.

    In this provocative thought experiment, Thompson -- a former Microsoft Windows product manager -- imagines what Apple's new CEO would do over the next five years, starting with the rollout of the iPhone 5C:

    Ballmer .. would push out the low cost version I advocated and attack non-subsidized markets. Ballmer would do more than catch enterprise accounts that fall in his lap; he would aggressively court CIOs and make changes to the iPhone to accommodate them. Ballmer would expand the iPad range to multiple screen sizes and price points, and would push for every school district in the world to standardize on them, far more aggressively than Apple is today. Ballmer would leverage iTunes, and all those credit cards, by making a play for payments and identity. As for computers, well, the XMac might even become a reality.

    There would, of course, be handsome incentives to make this happen. Apple's sales team would be hugely expanded, and their pay directly connected to the above becoming a reality. The product teams would be pedal to the metal filling in all the holes in Apple's current lineup, and marketing would be aggressively targeting everyone from CIOs to developing nations. Apple would give both China Mobile and NTT Docomo whatever concessions necessary to gain access to their customers, and Apple's carrier base would double, perhaps even triple to Samsung's level.

    The revenue and profits would flow.

    Thompson's punchline -- which gets to the heart of the difference between Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) -- is that if Ballmer ran Apple, the company would never again ship a disruptive new product.

    Part of this he attributes to the innovator's dilemma -- Clay Christensen's idea that a company focused on maximizing profits can't pursue a successful new product because of its impact on existing profit margins. Part of it is the kind of people who are attracted to and stay with a company like that.

    But if Apple's success has proved anything, Thompson suggests, it's that measurables like profits and incentive bonuses aren't the half of it. "Things like design can't be measured," he writes, "nor can user experience. How do you price delight, or discount annoyance?"

    In the consumer market, it's the immeasurables that matter. It's the ability to surprise and delight, and create evangelists. It's about creating something that developers demand access to, and that consumers implicitly trust. The consumer market is about everything you can't measure, everything Microsoft's legion of mini-Ballmer's can't see and will never appreciate.

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