据调研公司高德纳（Gartner）称，全球PC出货量上季度下降了10.9％，是该行业连续第五个季度下行。而据IDC公司称，全球PC出货量与去年同期相比下降了11.4％，本次衰退期之长，已创下行业历史之最。

    两家调研公司一致认为，PC销量下滑最主要的原因是，曾经的个人电脑买家现在纷纷转而购买平板电脑。

    苹果公司（Apple）在这方面的境况比其大多数竞争对手都要好。苹果公司销量下滑的幅度低于行业平均水平.据预测，苹果在美国的销量下降幅度在0.5%（IDC给出的数据）到4.3%（高德纳给出的数据）之间。此外，苹果仍是全球最畅销的两款平板电脑——iPad与迷你iPad——的制造商。

    我们为此调查了一些分析师，他们给出的预测不如IDC和高德纳的乐观，但也算不错了。

    我们迄今收到了44位分析师——其中27位为华尔街专业人士，另外17位是业余爱好者——做出的预测，他们对2013年第三财季Mac销量预测的平均值为383万部，比去年同期的402万部减少了5％。

    不过，有六名分析师（其中五人是专业人士）认为，苹果Mac的销量可能实际上同比略有上升。

    巴克莱资本公司（Barclay Capital）本•雷泽斯预测的Mac销量最高，为426万部，最低的销量预测则出自独立苹果分析师组织Braeburn Group的保罗•雷纳。

    苹果公司将于7月23日公布2013年第三财季的营收状况。届时我们将发现谁的预测误差最小。

    下表中是各位分析师给出的Mac销量预测，蓝色的是专业分析师，绿色的是独立分析师。同往常一样，感谢 Posts at Eventide网站的罗伯特•保罗•雷涛汇总Braeburn Group组织各位独立分析师的预测数字。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments fell 10.9% last quarter, the industry's fifth consecutive quarter of decline. According to IDC, shipments are down 11.4% year over year, capping the industry's longest slowdown ever.

    The main thing that's hurting PC sales, both research firms agree, is that customers who used to buy PCs are buying tablet computers instead.

    In that regard, Apple (AAPL) is better off than most of its competitors. Not only were its sales hurt less than the industry average -- off somewhere between 0.5% (IDC) and 4.3% (Gartner) in the U.S. -- but Apple still makes the world's No. 2 and No. 1 best-selling tablets: The iPad and the iPad mini.

    In that context, the estimates coming in from our survey of analysts look worse than IDC's and Gartner's, but not as bad as they might.

    Among the 44 we've heard from so far -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 17 amateurs -- the average estimate of Mac unit sales in fiscal Q3 2013 is 3.83 million, down 5% from the 4.02 million Apple sold in the same quarter last year.

    But half a dozen analysts -- five of them pros -- think Apple's Mac sales may have actually gone up a bit year over year.

    The top estimates of 4.26 million Macs was submitted by Barclay Capital's Ben Reitzes. The low, 3.4 million, came from Paul Reina, an independent analyst from the Braeburn Group.

    We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q3 2013 earnings on July 23.

    Below: The individual analyst's estimates -- pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.