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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果分析师热议三星Galaxy S4

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
三星Galaxy S4粉墨登场,来势汹汹。但大多数苹果分析师都认为,这款产品只能称得上是改进,而不能说是革命性的突破。它还不足以改变目前智能手机市场的竞争格局,苹果仍将占据这个市场的主导地位。

    瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse)库布林德•格切:Galaxy S4:一部令人印象深刻的手机。“我们认为,S4手机将推动三星在高端智能手机市场继续增长,出货量预计将从2012年的1.15亿部增加到2013年的1.8亿部,而三星的生产计划则是2亿部。结合苹果的增长,我们仍然要强调,高端智能手机市场将达到前所未有的规模,2013年年比增长34%,将达到约4亿部。三星最新高端手机Galaxy S4的面世必将使竞争进一步加剧,同时还将带来产品转型,在短期内将给苹果带来风险。而从长期来看,我们仍认为,在高端智能手机市场持续增长的大背景下,凭借运营商扩张(我们预计将达到6,500万)所带来的增量机会和生态系统优势,iPhone手机仍属于成长型业务(我们预计,2013年与2014年,iPhone手机出货量将分别达到1.58亿部和1.94亿部,占全球总量的16%)。”

    投资公司Topeka布莱恩•怀特:这的确是一次进步,但却不足以改变游戏规则。“S4在速度上要快于iPhone,但不论重量或是体积,S4均不如iPhone精致。近期,苹果股票下跌时,许多分析师和媒体对苹果落井下石,纷纷声称三星‘在创新上正在超越’苹果。对此,我们非常震惊。有人或许认为三星终将在手机市场打败苹果。我们认为,这种观点完全是无稽之谈。拿三星与苹果的智能手机市场份额进行对比,就像拿苹果与橘子进行比较一样,两者完全没有可比性。根据互联网数据中心(IDC)提供的2012年第4季度的手机市场报告,三星手机出货量年比增长了12.3%,而苹果则增长了29.2%。”

    金融服务公司Stifel阿伦•雷克斯:三星提高了押在智能手机产品上的赌注。“我们认为,S4的屏幕、摄像头、软件和其他几种独特性能提高了押在智能手机产品上的赌注。iPhone 5与Galaxy S4参数对比如下:

    • iPhone 5的屏幕分辨率为1136 X 640像素,326 ppi。而S4的屏幕分辨率为1920 X 1080像素,441 ppi。

    • iPhone 5的屏幕为4寸,S4则为5寸屏。

    • iPhone使用1.3 GHz双核处理器,S4则使用1.9 GHz四核或1.6GHz八核处理器。

    • iPhone摄像头仅为800万像素,S4则为1,300万像素。

    • 最后,iPhone 5重3.95盎司,而S4重4.59盎司。”(财富中文网)

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: Galaxy S4: An impressive device. "We believe the S4 device will continue to drive growth for Samsung in the high-end of the smartphone market from ~115mn devices in 2012 to ~180mn devices in 2013 with build plans as high as 200mn units. Combining this with Apple's growth, we continue to highlight that the high-end of the smartphone market should grow to unprecedented levels, and will likely grow 34% yoy to nearly 400mn units in 2013... The addition of Galaxy S4 to Samsung's high-end portfolio certainly presents risks to Apple in the near term owing to increasing competition and product transition. Long term, we still believe iPhone remains a growth business (our iPhone estimates are 158mn/194mn in CY13/CY14, implying global share of 16%) driven by continued growth in the high-end of smartphone market, incremental opportunity from carrier expansion (we estimate 65mn) and ecosystem advantage."

    Topeka's Brian White: A Refresh, but NOT a Game Changer. "The S 4 is faster but still heavier, fatter and less refined than the iPhone 5... We are amazed by how analysts and the media have turned on Apple during the recent stock downdraft with statements that Samsung is "out-innovating" Apple. One would believe that Samsung is crushing Apple in the mobile phone market. We believe this is complete nonsense. We believe the smartphone market share comparison between Samsung and Apple is like comparing apples with oranges. When analyzing the mobile phone market in 4Q12 as reported by IDC, Samsung grew its mobile phone unit shipments by 12.3% YoY vs. 29.2% for Apple."

    Stifel's Aaron Rakers: Samsung Ups the Smartphone Ante. "We believe that the display, the camera, the software and several unique features ups the ante in the smartphone market... Comparing the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S4 specs:

    • The iPhone 5 has a screen resolution of 1136 X 640 pixels and 326 ppi. The S4 has a screen resolution of 1920 X 1080 pixels and 441 ppi.

    • The screen size of the iPhone 5 is 4 inches compared to 5 inches for the S4.

    • The iPhone uses a 1.3 GHz dual-core processor compared to a 1.9 GHz quad-core or 1.6 GHz octa-core processor for the S4.

    • The iPhone only has a 8 MP camera versus 13 MP for the S4.

    • Finally, the iPhone 5 weighs 3.95 ounces versus 4.59 ounces for the S4."

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