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专栏 - 苹果2_0

移动江湖三国大战的逻辑怪圈

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月18日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果为什么左右为难?无论是推廉价手机、还是高价手机都会受到责难?相反,谷歌和三星的安卓设备却左右逢源,大卖特卖?分析人士认为,深层次的原因是因为市场和消费者已经陷入了一个逻辑怪圈。

    
乔布斯的力场反转

    华尔街为什么不看好苹果公司(Apple)?本•巴加林在上周的《时代》杂志(Time)科技版上就这个问题撰文阐述了他的“现实扭曲力场”理论,被很多苹果观察家(包括笔者)广泛引述。AppleInsider网站长期撰稿人丹尼尔•伊兰•迪尔格心直口快,他对这个话题的兴趣比任何人都大,他甚至还在个人博客Roughly Drafted Magazine上发表了文章以示支持。

    巴加林的理论是,史蒂夫•乔布斯扭转乾坤的魔力已经被人逆转了。巴加林认为,如今华尔街和媒体界普遍认为,苹果的主要问题是无法迅速生产出足够多的智能手机和平板电脑来满足市场的大量需求,苹果劫数难逃。

    迪尔格进一步完善了巴加林的理论,提出了他眼中的全新逆转力量的源泉所在——他把它称为“灵活的自适应逻辑(flexibly adaptive logic)。”(即后文所说的“逻辑缺陷”——译注)

    他写道:“逻辑缺陷(flawgic)并不是硬件或软件的问题,而是在人们的日常交流中,以口碑传播的方式,像病毒一样迅速蔓延,最终深深植根到公众心目中。”

    例如:

    “不论苹果要发布一款价格50美元的廉价款iPhone,还是一款价格2,000美元的豪华款iPhone,都会遭到严厉的批评。廉价款会被数落为粗制滥造;而豪华款则会由于高昂的价格遭到嘲笑。

    “由于这种逻辑缺陷,即使低端的安卓产品从各个方面来看都很糟糕,还是被誉为走亲民路线的销量王。它还为谷歌(Google)提供了双重帮助:使从谷歌眼镜到Chromebook Pixel这样整体价值低劣、价格却贵得离谱的设备免遭诟病,还让这些设备大卖特卖变得可能。”他说,逻辑缺陷就是这么强大。

    谈到逻辑缺陷这种基因如何传给三星(Samsung)时,迪尔格更是亮出了鲜明的观点。逻辑缺陷让三星敢于在联邦法院上一脸严肃地争辩称,它自己——而非苹果——才是专利侵权的受害者。

    迪尔格说:“这就好比一个强奸犯说,发生性行为违背了他本人的意愿。放任这位女士与其他无辜的强奸犯发生强制性行为之前,请把她关起来。另外,我能不能起诉她,要求损害赔偿?因为我觉得我的性器官受到了损伤。”

    这种非凡的、全新的“灵活的自适应逻辑”对谷歌安卓系统的支撑更是有过之而无不及。(财富中文网)

    译者:严匡正

    Ben Bajarin's "reality distortion" theory about why Wall Street doesn't get Apple (AAPL) -- first published in Time Magazine's Techland last week -- has been widely picked up by numerous Apple watchers (including this one). But nobody has had more fun with it than Daniel Eran Dilger, a regular (and relatively straightforward) contributor to AppleInsider who likes to let it fly on Roughly Drafted Magazine, his personal blog.

    Bajarin's theory was that the magic by which Steve Jobs could spin almost anything his way has been reversed; now the perception on the Street and in the media is that Apple -- whose main problem, according to Bajarin, is that it can't make smartphones and tablets fast enough to meet demand -- is doomed.

    Dilger has refined Bajarin's theory and identified what he believes to be the source of the new distortive power. He calls it "flexibly adaptive logic."

    "Flawgic," he writes, "is neither hardware nor software; it's installed directly into public mindshare via a virus spread by talking heads."

    For example:

    "If Apple were to release a cheap iPhone that cost $50 or a luxury one that cost $2000, it would receive intense scrutiny in either direction. The cheap version would be derided as flawed and worthless, while the expensive version would be laughed at for being ludicrously priced.

    "Flawgic allows low end Android products to be hailed as volume sales generators, even if they are terrible products in every way. But it also does double-duty in allowing Google's insanely priced devices, from Glass to Chromebook Pixel, to escape criticism of their inherently poor overall value or the likelihood of their ever selling in meaningful volumes."

    Flawgic is that powerful, he says.

    Dilger really hits his stride when he talks about how the Flawgic gene was passed to Samsung, allowing it to argue with a straight face in federal court that it -- not Apple -- was the patent infringement victim.

    "It's like a rapist saying he had penetrated against his own will," writes Dilger, "and please lock this woman up before she is allowed to have forcible sex with other innocent rapists. And can I sue her for damages? I think I hurt my penis."

    There's more of the same at Google's Android powered by remarkable new "flexibly adaptive logic"

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