苹果（Apple）正面临着市值跳水的窘境，苹果股价从去年9月至今已下跌了35%。众多卖方分析师纷纷献计献策，现在甚至有人建议苹果推出廉价iPhone。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）公司的凯蒂•休伯蒂对中国这一全球最大的智能手机市场进行了分析，并给大家算了一笔账。

    周二，她在给客户的一封信里提出了下面几个观点，令我耳目一新：

    • 人们大多认为，中国的智能手机只会越来越便宜。与此相反，她援引一些研究结果，表明去年中国智能手机的平均售价趋于稳定。同时随着中国用户开始购买品质更好的智能手机，售价实际上已开始走高。

    • 苹果公司可以推出一款售价2,000元人民币（330美元）的迷你iPhone，这样就能和联想（Lenovo）、华为（Huawei）、中兴（ZTE）和酷派（Coolpad）的旗舰产品相抗衡了。

    • 就算利润率更低（比如40%），并且替代率为1/3（即全价iPhone的客户流失三分之一），低价iPhone也能提高苹果的营收和毛利润（见上表）。

    • 推出迷你iPhone后，加上中国今年或明年颁发LTE执照，就能最终说服拥有7亿用户的中国移动（China Mobile）和苹果签约。

    • 如果上述情况都变成现实，休伯蒂估计苹果在中国智能手机市场上已跌至10%的份额将会提高三倍，达到近30%。

    当然，这得取决于苹果是否能设法用更便宜的零部件、更慢的处理器、分辨率更低的屏幕、以及也许是塑料机身来造出一部330美元的iPhone。而用蒂姆•库克上周在高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）一次会议上的话说，它决不能是个“低劣产品”。

    译者：清远

    Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math.

    She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new:

    • Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last year and has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones.

    • That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad.

    • That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Apple's revenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above).

    • That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple.

    • If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apple's addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%.

    This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, that isn't, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, "a crappy product."