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专栏 - 苹果2_0

业界热议iPhone 5中国首发销量破纪录

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
iPhone 5上市首个周末销量创纪录,三天总计卖出了200万部。此前普遍不看好iPhone 5的分析人士纷纷改变基调,称苹果最新款手机的热卖预示着苹果在中国新年的表现将十分强劲。

    咨询公司Sterne Agee的吴肖:一致同意以上关于iPhone的预测。“如此强劲的销售数字应该有助于平息投资者的担忧。相应的iPhone 4S销售数字没有透露,因此无从比较,但可以知道的是中国联通(China Unicom)的预购订单量增加了50%,达到300,000部。我们无意修改上述关于iPhone的一致预测,即第四季度销量将达到4,750万部。我们仍然认为,iPhone 5是一次重大升级,将驱动一个强劲的产品周期。

    证券公司Atlantic Equities的詹姆斯·科德威尔:iPhone 5登陆中国首战告捷。iPhone 5登陆中国首个周末销量即突破200万部。相比之下,据IDC估算,苹果在2012财年总共向中国大陆发货1,770万部iPhone(同期向整个大中华区发货2,740万部iPhone),也就是说,iPhone首发周末的发货量超过去年总销量的10%。此外,可能还与iPhone 5美国首发时的销量相当。苹果称iPhone 5最初在九国首发时,发货量超过500万部,而据我们估算,其中大概有一半的销量是在美国。诚然,美国的销售数字可能受到了供应有限的影响,而且以上都是渠道销售数字这一事实也意味着我们必须谨慎对待这些数字,但我们仍然认为,最初的中国发货量接近苹果最大的市场——美国的发货量,这个消息属利好。

    巴克莱银行(Barclay)的本·雷特兹:前所未有的波动似乎将导致第一季度收益指引大幅下调——对了,中国市场表现很不错。“近日来舆论一致看衰iPhone 5在中国的首发,但这似乎是杞人忧天了,因为绝大部分分析都只是纸上谈兵。事实上,苹果刚刚宣布,iPhone 5在中国大陆前三天销量已突破200万部。这个数字大大超出了我们的预期,尤其考虑到投资者曾普遍对iPhone在新兴市场上市太晚持悲观看法(尽管我们仍不清楚这200多万部iPhone 5中究竟有多少已从零售渠道售出)。iPhone 5大热中国意味着在竞争激烈、iOS 6表现不佳以及宏观经济疲软的情况下,我们仍然有希望非常惊喜地看到,iPhone(所有类型)在整个12月份季度的销量有望突破5,000万部。我们认为苹果股价已接近触底,不过,我们承认该公司正受到利润率、地图、新兴市场、竞争和执行力等难题困扰。很明显,苹果应该马上行动,消除大家的疑虑,而iPhone 5走俏中国市场无疑是个良好的开端。苹果将于明年1月公布季度财报,而投资者似乎都不大看好其未来营收(舆论普遍预测,苹果2013年第二财季的每股盈利不会增长)。苹果也许需要新一波的新品上市和技术创新,以恢复投资者信心,同时推动自己进入新的增长期。”

    Topeka证券的布莱恩·怀特:随着农历蛇年新年来到,苹果在中国势不可挡。“苹果于上周五(12月14日)在中国发布iPhone 5。由于这款手机实在乏善可陈,越来越多的人对其在中国市场的表现持怀疑态度。显然,现实情况让他们大跌眼镜,苹果iPhone 5销量喜人,而且该公司首次发表官方公告,公布了iPhone 5在中国上市后的销量。中国农历新年是明年2月10日,而购物旺季将于明年1月开始,苹果已为中国消费者准备了两大世界上最热销的产品(iPhone 5和iPad mini)。我们此前曾指出,中国对iPhone 5的需求将暴涨,因为我们相信iPhone 4和iPhone 4S用户会纷纷升级手机。上周末iPhone 5的热销已经证明了我们的观点。为什么会这样?关键原因在于地位。中国人向世界展示了一种新现象:在中国,拥有最新最棒的iPhone是有地位的象征。”

    Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu: Remain Comfortable with Above Consensus iPhone Forecast. "This is a strong number and should help quell investor concerns. The number of corresponding iPhone 4S sold was not disclosed but to put this in context, China Unicom pre-orders are up 50% to 300,000. We remain comfortable with our above consensus iPhone forecast looking for 47.5 million units for the December quarter. We continue to believe iPhone 5 is a significant update positioned to drive a powerful product cycle."

    Atlantic Equities' James Cordwell: Strong start for iPhone 5 in China. "To put the 2m figure in context, IDC estimates that Apple shipped 17.7m units to mainland China in FY12 (and 27.4m into Greater China), meaning launch weekend shipments were over 10% of last year's total volumes. In addition, the volume is probably comparable to that achieved over the same period in the US. Apple stated it shipped over 5m iPhones during the initial nine country launch of the iPhone 5, with the US probably representing about half of this volume, by our estimates. Admittedly the US figure might have been hit by supply constraints and the fact that all these figures are based on sell-in means they have to be treated with a little caution, but we still view it as positive that initial Chinese shipments were close to those in Apple's biggest geography."

    Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Unprecedented Volatility Seems to be Pricing in a Major March Quarter Guide Down - Oh, and China's Pretty Good. "Recent pessimism around the iPhone 5 launch in China seems  overdone since most of the activity seems to be online. In fact, Apple just announced that sales of the iPhone 5 over its first three days in China topped 2 million units - much better than our expectations - especially given negative investor sentiment about emerging markets sales of iPhones of late (although we are still unclear how much of the 2 million plus is sell-through). That said, we would still be surprised to see overall December iPhone (all types) sales well over 50 million given tougher competition, some of the concerns around iOS 6, and macro pressures... For Apple we believe the sell-off is nearing a bottom but we acknowledge the fears around margins, maps, emerging markets, competition and execution. The company clearly needs to ease these concerns in the near future - and the announcement around China iPhone 5 sales was a nice start. Investors seem to be pricing in very weak guidance when the company reports in January (consensus F2Q estimates are now calling for flat EPS y/y). It may take another round of new products and innovations to regain investor confidence and help drive another run"

    Topeka's Brian White: China Can't Shake Apple Fever as We Approach the Year of the Snake. "Recall, Apple launched the iPhone 5 in China on Friday (12/14) and given the lackluster lines, there was growing concern around demand for this new iPhone. Clearly, this view turned out to be incorrect as this represents a big print for Apple and the first time the Company ever issued a post-launch press release for iPhone sales in China. With the Chinese New Year beginning on February 10 and shopping season starting in January, Apple has the two hottest products (i.e., iPhone 5 and iPad mini) in the world available for the Chinese consumers... We have previously indicated that we expected a big uptick in China demand with the iPhone 5 as we believe both iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S owners will upgrade. The strong iPhone 5 sales this weekend support our view. The key reason is status. In our view, a new form factor shows the world that you have the latest and greatest iPhone, a sign of status in China."

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