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专栏 - Allan Sloan

谁当选能给美股带来利好

Allan Sloan 2012年09月21日

艾伦·斯隆(Allan Sloan)为《财富》杂志高级编辑。出生于纽约布鲁克林,1966年毕业于布鲁克林学院,次年毕业于哥伦比亚大学新闻学院研究生院。他是金融领域的资深记者,2008年以“"House of Junk”一文第七次获得财经新闻界最高荣誉杰洛德-罗布奖(Gerald Loeb Award)。
表面看来,华尔街似乎更喜欢共和党总统?别急着下结论。看看历史,答案没那么简单。

     这些天,我常被问到的一个问题是,米特•罗姆尼和巴拉克•奥巴马两个人谁获胜对美国股市更有利。对此,最老实的回答是“我真的不知道”。任何一位合格且不带偏见的市场分析师都会告诉你,美国和世界经济的状况以及人们的信心是主要因素,美国总统对这些因素的影响力远不如大多数人想象得那样大。

    以乔治•W.•布什为例。他是共和党人,推崇自由市场,对吧?照理,这样他任职期间美国股市应该繁荣发展才对。而且,他还以帮助投资者和美国经济的名义,将投资所得税降到了现代历史以来的最低水平。可是……股票投资者根本没遇上什么黄金时代,股市在他任期内表现得一塌糊涂。投资咨询公司Wilshire Associates为我搜集的数据显示,在布什两届任期内,美国股市下跌了25.1%。如果只是以历史平均水平,布什在任八年的股市总回报——资本增值加上股息再投资——也能超过翻番。

    但最终,投资者亏损了四分之一。

    你猜怎么着?首届任期内股市表现最好的是巴拉克•奥巴马(至少迄今的数据如此)。奥巴马上任以来痛斥华尔街,指责他们损害美国企业界的利益,并推动上调富人的投资所得税税率。但截至今年9月中旬,奥巴马上任以来美国股市的累计回报率达到了95.9%。

    One of the questions I get asked these days is whether a win by Mitt Romney or by Barack Obama would be better for the stock market. To which the only honest answer is "I have no earthly idea." Any competent and dispassionate market analyst will tell you that the financial and psychological states of the U.S. and world economies are the major factors, and that the President's influence on these matters is far less than most people think it is.

    Case in point: George W. Bush. He was a Republican, a free-market guy, right? Stocks, according to the conventional wisdom, should have boomed during his reign. After all, he dropped taxes on investment income to their lowest point in modern history in the name of helping investors and the economy. Well … oops! Rather than being a golden age for stock investors, his tenure was a disaster. The U.S. market lost 25.1% during his two terms, according to statistics assembled for me by Wilshire Associates. Had historical averages held, the market's total return -- capital gains plus reinvested dividends -- would have more than doubled investors' money during the eight years that Bush was in office.

    Instead, investors ended up with a quarter less than they started with.

    And guess what? The best first-term presidential market (at least so far) has come during the administration of … Barack Obama, who has been reviled on Wall Street for allegedly crippling corporate America with insults and regulation, and who has pushed through higher taxes on investment income of upper-echelon households. Yet stocks produced a whopping 95.9% total return from Obama's Inauguration through Fortune's mid-September presstime.

    当我请Wilshire计算每届总统任期的股市回报率时,我根本没有料到奥巴马会排在第一。我们的统计始于罗纳德•里根,是因为Wilshire是从1980年推出Wilshire 5000指数起开始跟踪每日的市场回报率。因此,1981年就职的里根是出现在我们名单中的首位总统。(全部数据见上表。)

    如果投资者预想的朋友——乔治•W.•布什是里根以来任期内股市表现最差的总统,哪位总统的任期内股市表现最好?不,不是启动减税狂欢的里根,而是在首届任期内大幅加税的比尔•克林顿。

    想想吧。股市在两届民主党总统任期中表现出色,而三位共和党总统任期内的表现则垫底。

    Finding Obama at the top isn't what I expected to see when I asked Wilshire to calculate returns by presidential administrations for me. We started with Ronald Reagan because Wilshire didn't begin tracking daily market returns with its Wilshire 5000 index until 1980. That's why Reagan, who took office in 1981, is the first President on our list. (You can find all the numbers in the table to the left.)

    If George W. Bush, the investors' supposed friend, produced the worst return of any President starting with Reagan, whose administration showed the best return? No, not Reagan, beloved in some places (and notorious in others) for kicking off our orgy of tax cuts. It was Bill Clinton, who pushed through a hefty tax increase during his first term.

    Think about it. Under two Democratic Presidents, stocks have shown the best return, while three Republicans bring up the rear.

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