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专栏 - 财富书签

普通投资者如何打赢华尔街

Scott Cendrowski 2012年05月11日

《财富》书签(Weekly Read)专栏专门刊载《财富》杂志(Fortune)编辑团队的书评,解读商界及其他领域的新书。我们每周都会选登一篇新的评论。
无论牛市还是熊市,普通投资者真的能旱涝保收吗?听听史蒂芬•西尔斯在《不屈不挠的投资者》中给出的建议。

    假如你从未读过投资类书籍。你既不遵从投资大师彼得•林奇的致胜华尔街建议,对网络上的各色快速致富计划敬而远之,也把三姑六婆劝你读读理财专家苏茜•欧曼的建议抛在一边,你也最后,从来没看过近些年出版的、形形色色的危机投资书籍。

    既然这些年来都没看过,那么为什么今天要买一本有关投资的书呢?首先,股市可以把巨额财富化为乌有。然后,当很多人(包括你在内)离场观望后,股市又出现了大涨。但同时也有麻烦。无论是401(k)养老金计划还是个人退休账户(IRA),如今大多数美国人都需要通过某种方式自行管理退休资产。你自己可能也早就已经承认了:是时候提高投资技巧了。

    史蒂芬•西尔斯的《不屈不挠的投资者》(The Indomitable Investor)可以祝你一臂之力。身为《巴伦周刊》(Barron's)编辑的西尔斯在书中努力阐明投资者应如何避开华尔街数不胜数的陷阱,无论牛市还是熊市,都能赚到钱。开篇,西尔斯就揭示了一个惊人的事实,如果投资者能明白这个道理,就会比现在富有10倍。“糟糕的投资者考虑怎么赚钱,”西尔斯写道。“出色的投资者考虑怎么不亏钱。”

    想一想现实生活中的案例。沃伦•巴菲特这位过去100年最成功的投资者不是靠每天在奥马哈坐在彭博(Bloomberg)终端前执行交易而致富。他成为世界上最富有的人是通过购买低价股票,如果形势变糟,他也有回旋余地。在市场惨淡的年月里,巴菲特也没有落败,他的财富年复一年地呈现复合增长。巴菲特常常调侃复合增长的重要性。他的第一投资准则是什么?不要亏钱。第二准则呢?别忘了第一条。

    不幸的是,西尔斯浪费了这个漂亮的开场白。继第一章后,《不屈不挠的投资者》给出的建议开始自相矛盾,甚至可疑,包括强调了一些普通投资者本应避免的典型华尔街理念。他提供的建议来自贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)前董事长艾斯•格林伯格,后者一贯坚持卖出亏损股——没有任何借口。

     普通投资者应该总是清仓下跌股吗?当然不是。好公司的股票在长期上涨过程中也会因为各种各样的原因下跌。另外,普通投资者也无力承担像华尔街交易员那样不断换股的交易成本。

    Let's say you've never read a book on investing. You avoided Peter Lynch's advice on how to get one up on Wall Street, dodged all the Internet get-rich-quick schemes, brushed off your in-laws' efforts to get you to read Suze Orman, and finally steered clear of the various "crisis investing" titles that have appeared in the past few years.

    If you've held off all these years, why buy an investing book today? For starters, stock markets obliterated billions of dollars of your money. Then they skyrocketed while many people -- probably including you -- sat on the sidelines. But there's also the inconvenient fact that most Americans are now on the hook for managing their own retirement assets in some form or another -- either in a 401(k) or IRA. You may have even already admitted it to yourself: It's time for you become a better investor.

    Steven Sears' The Indomitable Investor offers an enticing premise. The author, a Barron's editor, promises to explain how investors can avoid Wall Street's countless pitfalls and build wealth in good times and bad. Sears begins with an awesome truth that would make every investor 10 times richer if they only knew it. "Bad investors think of ways to make money," Sears writes. "Good investors think of ways to not lose money."

    Think of it in practice. Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of the last 100 years, didn't get rich executing trades each day from behind a Bloomberg terminal in Omaha. Instead, he became one of the world's richest men by buying low-priced stocks that gave him a margin of error if things went wrong. Buffett didn't blow up during disappointing years, either, which means his wealth compounded year after year after year. Buffett often jokes about the importance of compounding. His first rule of investing? Don't lose money. The second rule? Don't forget rule No. 1.

    Unfortunately, Sears squanders this brilliant starting point. After the first chapter, The Indomitable Investor grows a tangle of conflicting advice and dubious tips that emphasize typical Wall Street ideas for stock trading, which are exactly what civilian investors should avoid. He offers advice from former Bear Stearns Chairman Ace Greenberg, who always sells losing stocks -- no excuses.

    Should you always get rid of fallen stocks? Of course not. Stocks of good companies dip for all sorts of reasons on their way to long-term gains. Plus, Main Street investors can't afford the trading costs of churning through stocks like Wall Street traders. 

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