华尔街分析师对苹果（Apple）iPhone上季度销量的预测与实际销量相差在200万部以内（实际销量是3,510万部）的人我一只手就能数得过来。

    由于在圣诞节后，威瑞森（Verizon）与美国电话电报公司（AT&T）的iPhone激活量会出现“可预见的”下降，所以绝大部分分析师的注意力都放在了这个问题上，以至于他们都漏掉了iPhone 4S在中国发售这一事件的重大意义。中国是世界最大的手机市场，iPhone 4S恰到好处地挑在农历新年上市，而这一时段正是中国最为狂热的送礼季。

    （参见贺拉斯•德迪欧在其个人博客Asymco上的文章，他半开玩笑地解释说：“因为绕太阳公转，所以地球的轴心线与其运行轨道是倾斜的。”）（德迪欧意在指出全球很多国家的重大节日都在12月到1月间，不仅仅是美国圣诞节。——译注）

    这一点也许能解释，为什么至少有两位分析师在周一的报告中都强调了中国对于苹果未来iPhone销量的重要性。

    上文的图表是咨询公司Auriga的凯文•德发布的，他此前预测2012年第二财季，iPhone销量为2,800万部，结果比实际数字少了大约700万。他现在预测：中国三大运营商每月新增1,000到1,200万3G用户；其中绝大部分是iPhone潜在用户。

    另一位分析师也不甘示弱，德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯•维特莫尔将其报告定名为《iPhone在中国刚刚起步》。维特莫尔在上财季的预测最不靠谱，当时他预测的数字仅为2,600万部。

    维特莫尔写道：“我们认为，在2012年第一季度，苹果在中国联通（China Unicom）和中国电信（China Telecom）的混合3G市场中占据了不到15%的份额。我们预计，在接下来数年，受益于两大运营商3G用户的强劲增长，苹果份额将获得稳步提升。如果苹果在2013年底能在3G市场中实现20-25%的渗透率，那么我们预计iPhone在中国的销量或将达到2,500万（2012年）和3,500万（2013年）。如果苹果能和中国移动（China Mobile）展开合作，那么iPhone销量必将进一步增长。”

    的确如此。

    最新消息：维特莫尔在周一下午的一封电子邮件中表示，尽管自己预测苹果第二财季将售出2,600万部iPhone，但他在4月23日的一份报告中包含了下面这句话：

    “我们认为自己对iPhone 2,600万部的预测过于保守，真实销量应在3,300万到3,400万之间。”

    越来越多的苹果分析师正在采用这一做法。他们发布一个预测销量，然后表示该数字可能过低，以此规风险。不过，对我们而言，我们只能采用公开发布的数字，除非它们被正式修订。

    译者：项航

    I can count on one hand the number of Wall Street analysts whose estimates of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales last quarter came within 2 million units of the correct answer (35.1 million).

    Most of them were so distracted by the predictable fall-off in Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) activations after Christmas that they missed the significance of the launch of the iPhone 4S in China just in time for Chinese New Year -- the biggest holiday gift-buying season in the world's biggest mobile phone market.

    (See Asymco's Horace Dediu's only slightly tongue-in-cheek primer on how Earth's axis is tilted relative to the orbital plane it follows around the Sun.)

    This may explain why at least two analysts issued notes Monday highlighting the importance of China to Apple's future iPhone sales.

    The chart above was posted by Auriga's Kevin Dede, whose estimate of Q2 iPhone sales was 28 million units, roughly 7 million short. He now estimates that between them, China's three largest carriers are adding 10 to 12 million new 3G subscribers per month, most of them potential iPhone customers.

    Not to be outdone, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore, whose iPhone estimate of 26 million units was the worst we saw last quarter, issued a note entitled "iPhone is just getting started in China."

    "In 1Q," he writes, "we estimate Apple has captured less than 15% share of China Unicom and China Telecom's combined 3G subscriber base. Over the next few years, we expect Apple to benefit from strong 3G sub growth at these two partners while continuing its path of share gains. If Apple reaches 20-25% penetration of this subscriber base by the end of 2013, we estimate iPhone unit sales in China would approach ~25M units in 2012 and ~35M units in 2013. Any benefit from a future partnership with China Mobile would be additive to these estimates."

    Indeed.

    UPDATE: In an e-mail sent Monday afternoon, Whitmore notes that although his Q2 model called for Apple to sell 26 million iPhones, he issued a note on April 23 that contained this sentence:

    "We believe our expectation of 26.0M iPhones will prove too conservative and we believe units will be in the 33-34M range."

    This is an increasingly common practice among Apple analysts. They hedge a published unit sales estimate by suggesting that it may be too low. For our purposes, however, we have to stick with the published estimate until it is formally revised.