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专栏 - 苹果2_0

华尔街90天内调高苹果收益估值24.4%

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年03月31日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
即使每股高达600美元,但苹果公司的股价似乎依然不正常。

    苹果公司(Apple)的第二财季截止到周六,虽然其股价的锐气在周五早上遭到市场打压(苹果股价在早上十点左右回落到600美元以下),但华尔街仍然看好这家由蒂姆•库克执掌的公司。

    我们如何得出这一判断?因为根据我们的观察,过去的90天里,分析师对苹果公司第二财季收益的估值调高了逾24%。分析人士对其每股收益的估值从3个月前的7.86美元调高至了如今的9.78美元(然而,在我们的独立分析师小组看来,这个数据依然偏低。他们一致认为,苹果第二财季的每股收益将超过12.50美元)。

    相比之下,华尔街在同一时期对于包括亚马逊(Amazon)到谷歌(Google)在内的其他技术股的收益估值却一直在下降。他们对亚马逊公司每股收益的估值下调得尤为剧烈,在过去3个月间下调了80%以上。

    然而,在古怪的股市世界里,亚马逊公司依然被授予近150倍的历史市盈率(苹果公司的历史市盈率仅为17倍),意味着市场认为亚马逊公司的价值比苹果公司高出8倍以上。见下图。

    译者:任文科

    Apple's (AAPL) second fiscal quarter ends Saturday, and although the market spent Friday morning knocking the stuffing out of its share price (Apple fell back below $600 in mid-morning trading), Wall Street remains bullish on Tim Cook's company.

    How do we know? We've watched the analysts' Q2 estimates for Apple climb more than 24% in the past 90 days -- from an EPS of $7.86 three months ago to $9.78 today. (Even that's low, according to our panel of independent analysts; their consensus is calling for Q2 earnings of more than $12.50.)

    By contrast, the Street's estimates for the rest of the stocks in the tech sector -- from Amazon (AMZN) to Google (GOOG) -- have been falling over the same period. Amazon's EPS estimates have been particularly hard hit, down more than 80% over the the past three months.

    In the bizzarro world of the equities market, however, Amazon is still rewarded with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 150 to Apple's 17, meaning AMZN is perceived as more than eight times more valuable than AAPL. See chart below.

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