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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果是昙花一现还是商界常青树?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月29日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果会昙花一现,还是会跻身少数伟大的公司,成为一个时代的代表?

上图所示为美国历史上市值(以2012年美元计算)登顶的部分公司。从左至右依次为IBM, 菲利普•莫里斯烟草公司、沃尔玛、通用电气、微软、思科、埃克森美孚及苹果来源:《纽约时报》。

    数周来,投资者、分析师和商业历史学者们一直“挣扎”于苹果(Apple)的最新财报。他们都试图解开一个谜题:一家巨无霸企业(市值4,871亿美元)为什么还能像新创企业一样继续保持飞速成长(苹果第一季度营收同比增长115.7%)。

    去年11月,苹果果断抛开埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil),登上世界市值最高公司的宝座。标准普尔分析师霍华德•希尔沃布拉特称,苹果是自1926年以来,第11家有幸坐上这一宝座的公司。

    希尔沃布拉特的本能反应和许多跟进苹果的分析师一样:将苹果看成一个特例、一个暂时扭曲了现有金融模式的异类。所以他在巴伦周刊(Barron's)的数据表中,选择将苹果排除在外:

    • 去年,标准普尔500指数上涨1.55%,不过去掉苹果后,涨幅仅为0.47%。

    • 从年初至今,标准普尔500指数上涨了8.24%,但去掉苹果后,涨幅仅为7.7%。

    • 从2007年10月至今,标准普尔500科技股指数上涨了9.81%,但在去掉苹果后,竟然下跌了4.1%。

    希尔沃布拉特的观点是:如果剔除苹果,整个经济复苏实际并不乐观。

    不过,如果希尔沃布拉特之流反过来想想呢?苹果,也许并不是个例外,它可能预示着商业世界一个新王朝的开始。

    上周,科技博客Asymco的作者贺拉斯•德迪欧在《关键路径》(The Critical Path)播客上发布了新内容,其中三分之二的篇幅都在谈论上述问题。

    德迪欧表示,之前的市场领导者,比如通用汽车(GM)和IBM,没有弥补经济体中其它(公司)的不足。他们是他们那个时代的增长引擎,他们重塑了我们对营销和生产率的看法,改变了整个行业的业务流程。他说,苹果正在发挥类似的影响……

    苹果正在告诉整个世界,怎样才能打造一家出色的公司,而且苹果用了一种引人注目、甚至是令人眩目的方式来做这件事。

    一旦他们衰退,我们会回到老样子,这话说来轻松。但我们再也回不去了。

    苹果今天教给我们的东西,几年内人人都会学到手。这些东西包括我提到的制造方面,生态系统方面,品牌方面,创新方面,以及自我吞噬的过程……

    苹果并不是规则之外的特例,它是在重新定义规则。

    这个论点很吸引人,值得全面跟进。读者朋友可以登录丹•本杰明的5by5播客网络,收听他的观点。《关键路径》,第26集:时代精神——从41:15秒开始。

    译者: 项航

    Investors, analysts and business historians have been struggling in the weeks since Apple's (AAPL) most recent earnings report to make sense of this corporate oddity: a mega-cap company ($487.1 billion) that grows like a start-up (first quarter earnings up 115.7%).

    Since November, when it pulled decisively away from Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple has been the world's biggest company by market capitalization -- only the 11th since 1926 to achieve the top spot, according to Howard Silverblatt of Standard & Poor's.

    Silverblatt's first instinct -- like that of many analysts who follow the company -- is to treat Apple as an exception, an anomaly that has temporarily distorted their financial models. So he pulls Apple out of his spreadsheets to point out via Barron's that:

    • The S&P 500 is up 1.55% over the last year, but would only be up 0.47% without Apple.

    • The S&P 500 is up 8.24% year-to-date, but would be up 7.7% without it.

    • The S&P 500 technology sector is up 9.81% since October 2007, but without Apple it is actually down 4.1%.

    Silverblatt's point is that without Apple, the economic recovery wouldn't look so rosy.

    But what if Silverblatt and the others have it backward? What if Apple, rather than being the exception, is the rule that defines a new era in business?

    That's the question Asymco's Horace Dediu tackles about two thirds of the way through last week's episode of his The Critical Path podcast.

    Previous market leaders, like GM (GM) and IBM (IBM), he argues, were not there to make up for the deficiencies of the rest of the economy. They were the engines of growth for their era, redefining our ideas about marketing and productivity and changing business processes across whole industries. Similarly, he says...

    Apple is teaching the world how to be a good company, and they're doing it in a spectacular way -- it's almost blinding.

    It's easy to say well, once they fade, we'll go back. But we'll never go back.

    What Apple teaches us today, everyone will do the same thing in a few years. And that includes what I talked about in terms of manufacturing, in terms of ecosystems, in terms of brands, in terms of innovation and the process of self-cannibalization...

    It's not that Apple is the exception to the rule, it's that Apple is redefining what the rule is.

    It's a fascinating argument, worth following in full. You can get it on Dan Benjamin's 5by5 podcast network -- The Critical Path, Episode 26: Zeitgeist -- starting at the 41:15 mark.

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