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专栏 - 苹果2_0

平板市场第2把交椅争夺战

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月24日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
已购买非苹果平板电脑的消费者中,超过3/4的人甚至根本没有考虑过iPad。这对于其他平板电脑生产商来说当然是个机会。那么,到底哪家制造商有望抢走苹果iPad的生意?

数据来源:NPD,2011年1月-10月,图片来源:PED

    不知何故,调研机构NPD集团周二发布了一篇新闻稿,报道了除市场巨无霸——苹果(Apple)iPad外的平板电脑在美国的销量。

    NPD行业分析部副总裁史蒂芬•贝克称:“如果审视除苹果以外的平板电脑市场,有许多知名品牌正在争夺老二的位置。根据NPD消费者跟踪服务的数据,在已购买非苹果平板电脑的消费者中,76%的甚至根本没有考虑过iPad。这种现象表明,许多消费者正在寻找iPad的替代品,这对于其它平板电脑制造商而言无疑是好机会。”

    或许如此吧,虽然这个机会究竟有多大并无定论。

    虽然苹果并未公布美国单一市场的销售数字,不过在过去9个月,该公司总共已售出超过2,500万部iPad,销售额达到157.5亿美元。

    2011年前10个月,iPad的竞争对手在美国市场仅仅销售了120万部平板电脑,销售额为5.15亿美元。

    For reasons known only unto itself, the NPD group saw fit Tuesday to issue a press release reporting on U.S. sales of tablets excluding the market's 400-pound gorilla: Apple's (AAPL) iPad.

    "If you look at the tablet market without Apple there are a number of high-profile brands vying for that number two spot," said NPD vice president of industry analysis Stephen Baker. "According to NPD's Consumer Tracking Service, 76 percent of consumers who purchased a non-Apple tablet didn't even consider the iPad, an indication that a large group of consumers are looking for alternatives, and an opportunity for the rest of the market to grow their business."

    Well, maybe, although how big an opportunity that represents is open for debate.

    Apple doesn't break out U.S.-only sales figures, but in the last 9 months it sold more than 25 million iPads and took in $15.75 billion.

    In the first 10 months of 2011 the iPad also-rans sold a total of 1.2 million tablets in the U.S. and took in only $415 million in retail revenue.

点击可放大图片

    此外,调研机构ChangeWave在周一发布报告指出, 进入11月,在iPad之外,唯一真正引起消费者兴趣的平板电脑是亚马逊(Amazon)Kindle Fire,不过NPD的报告并未将其涵盖在内。

    ChangeWave的新闻稿补充道:“重要的是,除了(亚马逊Kindle Fire和)三星(Samsung)盖世(Galaxy)平板电脑(4%)外,没有任何一家厂商能够获得超过1%消费者的青睐。”

    雪上加霜的是,当然在苹果看来则是锦上添花,ChangeWave的调查基本是在第一波Kindle Fire测评发布之前总结的。请点击此处查看相关测评文章。

    译者:项航

    Moreover, the only tablet besides the iPad that was generating any real consumer interest in November, according to a ChangeWave survey released Monday, was Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire -- a device not included in NPD's report.

    "Importantly," the ChangeWave press release added, "with the exception of the Samsung Galaxy Tab (4%) no other manufacturer is garnering more than 1% of future tablet demand among consumers."

    Making matters worse -- or better, from Apple's point of view -- is the fact that the ChangeWave survey was largely concluded before the first wave of Kindle Fire reviews appeared. See here for how those turned out.

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