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专栏 - 苹果2_0

中国PC市场争夺战:苹果欢乐,联想堪忧

 Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月15日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
调查数据显示,尽管只有7%的中国消费者有能力购买Mac,但他们仍将Mac视为最中意的电脑品牌。苹果的份额有望从目前的5%上升到21%,毫无争议地成为中国PC市场未来几年最大的赢家;而本土的联想则沦为最大的输家,未来继续购买的意愿预计将大幅下滑。

    点击放大

    市场调研及咨询机构IDC称今年8月,中国超越美国,正式成为世界第一大个人电脑消费市场。

    上周三,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)公布了一份调查结果,显示苹果(Apple)有望力压其它PC制造商,成为中国市场的最大赢家。

    摩根士丹利的凯蒂•休伯蒂总结了调研团队Alphawise对中国16个城市、1,553名消费者的专业调查数据,并发布报告指出:

    • 目前中国消费者在电脑上的平均开支为600美元(与美国持平)。

    • 半数受访者计划在两年内购置新机并准备多花6%的资金。

    • 受访者将苹果视为最中意的PC品牌,遥遥领先于其它国际和中国本土PC品牌——其中包括位于北京的联想(Lenovo)。

    • 问及下一台PC选择哪个品牌时,21%的中国消费者选择了苹果。

    • 虽然只有7%的受访者表示愿意花费超过1,000美元购置电脑,但休伯蒂表示,随着中国消费者日渐富裕,这种情况应该会发生改变。

    根据调查结果,中国市场最大的赢家和输家分别如下:

    输家:联想。31%的受访者拥有联想PC,但仅有23%的人计划继续购置。

    赢家:苹果。目前仅有5%的受访者拥有,但21%的人有购置意愿。

    赢家:惠普(Hewlett-Packard)。11%的受访者拥有,13%的人有购置意愿。

    没输也没赢:戴尔(Dell)。(拥有率和未来购买意愿都)稳定在6%。

    中国企业市场的形势则大不一样。调查结果认为戴尔和苹果处于有利地位,而惠普则颇为不妙。具体数据如下图所示:

    译者:项航

    In August, according to IDC, China overtook the U.S. as the world's largest consumer of personal computers.

    On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley issued the results of a survey suggesting that Apple (AAPL) is the best positioned of all PC manufacturers to capitalize on the boom.

    Summarizing the results of a proprietary Alphawise survey of 1,553 consumers in 16 Chinese cities, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty reports:

    • Chinese consumers currently spend an average of $600 for their computers (same as Americans)

    • Half plan to buy a new computer within the next two years, and they expect to spend 6% more for it

    • They rate Apple as the most desirable PC brand, well ahead of other international and domestic PC makers -- including Beijing-based Lenovo

    • Asked which brand of computer their next PC would be, 21% of Chinese consumer chose Apple

    • Only 7% say they are willing to spend more than $1,000 for a computer, but as the Chinese consumers grow more affluent, writes Huberty, that should change

    Based on the survey results, the biggest winners and losers in the Chinese consumer market are:

    Loser:Lenovo. 31% own a Lenovo PC, but only 23% plan to buy another.

    Winner:Apple. 5% currently own, 21% hope to buy one

    Winner:Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). 11% own, 13% hope to buy

    Neutral:Dell (DELL). Holding steady at 6%

    The enterprise market in China is a different story. There the survey results favor Dell and Apple, while indicating trouble ahead for HP. See the chart below.

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