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专栏 - 苹果2_0

减产传言重创苹果股价

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月11日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
iPhone 4S销量下滑的传言“大错特错”。不过,iPad的销量倒可能下滑了。

    最新消息:正像一些读者指出的,由于周三欧洲的一些不利消息,整个大盘都在下跌,而苹果股价也在随之下挫。截至收盘,苹果股价跌幅(2.7%)要小于纳斯达克(3.88%)。

    周三,台北《电子时报》(DigiTimes)报道,传统意义上,假期季度应是苹果销售最旺的时节,但苹果已经“下调”该季度iPhone和iPad的零部件订单。受此消息影响,苹果股价开盘即下跌9.23美元(2.3%)。

    《电子时报》的凯奇•曹和史蒂芬•沈称:“根据《工商时报》(Commercial Times)中文版的消息,苹果极有可能下调第四季度来自相关供应商的iPhone和iPad的出货量,降幅可能高达10-15%。”

    不过,许多分析师随后迅速做出回击。他们指出,任何关于iPhone 4S销量下滑的谣言都是“大错特错”。

    加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的麦克•阿布兰斯基称:“这条报道与目前的现象相矛盾。现在看来,iPhone 4S在全球多家运营商和多个国家的销量持续火爆。”他认为所谓下调零部件订单——如果真有的话,也是“苹果经常订购了过多的零部件。”

    投资银行Piper Jaffray的吉恩•明斯特表现得更为坚定。他在周三致客户的一份报告中称:“我们认为最近有关iPhone 4S减产的传闻通通大错特错。”明斯特还指出,他的同事在周一打电话给30家苹果零售店,57%的店铺表示iPhone 4S已经售罄,其它则表示仅剩有限型号的库存。

    另一方面,证券公司Ticonderoga的布莱恩•怀特一直在关注亚洲供应链的“风吹草动”。他指出,从9月到10月,苹果在台湾的某些重要零部件供应商的销售额下滑了22%。这也许印证了苹果订单减少的说法。不过,怀特认为10月份的“急剧下滑”是由于苹果赶在iPhone 4S发布前,于9月份进行了大量零部件订购,这一举动最终改变了苹果的订单月环比数据。

    证券公司Rodman & Renshaw的阿肖克•库玛称,iPad 2第四季度的产量或将下滑100-200万部,低于华尔街此前1,400-1,500万部的预期。

    不过库玛并未发现iPhone产量下滑,他指出《电子时报》的报道可能将iPad的供应链与iPhone搞混淆了。

    最新消息:瑞银集团(USB)的梅纳德•尤姆也注意到了谣言,他的看法与众人一致:“在2012年第一季度可能推出新款iPhone之前,我们认为订单的任何变化更可能涉及iPad,而不是iPhone。”

    译者:项航

    UPDATE: As several readers pointed out, Apple's share price was also hit, along with the rest of the market, by the news out of Europe Wednesday, and by the end of the day had suffered less than the NASDAQ, which fell 3.88% to Apple's 2.7%.]

    Apple (AAPL) shares opened down $9.23 (2.3%) following a report Wednesday in Taipei-based DigiTimes that the company had "slashe[d]" iPhone and iPad component orders for the holiday quarter, traditionally Apple's biggest.

    "According to a Chinese-language Commercial Times report," DigiTimes' Cage Chao and Steve Shen write, "Apple is likely to adjust downward its shipments of iPhones and iPads from related suppliers by 10-15% in the fourth quarter."

    Some analysts were quick to dismiss as "off base" any rumors of a slowdown in iPhone 4S sales.

    "The report is at odds with what appears to be continued strong iPhone 4S sellthrough at multiple carriers/countries globally," wrote RBC's Mike Abramsky. He attributed a component cutback -- if there is one -- to "typical Apple over-ordering."

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster was even more adamant. "We believe recent chatter around iPhone 4S production cuts is off base," he told clients in a note issued Wednesday. He notes that when his team called 30 Apple stores on Monday, 57% were completely sold out of the iPhone 4S and the others all had stockouts of one model or another.

    On the other hand, Ticonderoga's Brian White, who monitors an Asian supply chain "barometer," reported a 22% drop in part sales between September and October for some key Taiwanese Apple component suppliers. That would support reports of a cut in Apple orders. White, however, attributes October's "big miss" to an unusual bump in Apple's part orders in September in advance of the iPhone 4S launch, which would have skewed the month-to-month comparison.

    And Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar reported that production volumes for the iPad 2 in the December quarter seemed to be coming in 1 to 2 million units below the Street's consensus of 14 to 15 million.

    Kumar, however, saw no slowdown in iPhone production, which suggests that the DigiTimes report may have conflated the iPad's supply chain with the iPhone's.

    UPDATE: UBS' Maynard Um has looked at the rumors and reached the same conclusion: "We believe any order adjustments are more likely to be around iPad rather than iPhone ahead of a likely new launch in 1Q12."

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