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专栏 - 苹果2_0

iPad有望成为书包终结者

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月02日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
调查显示:16%的学校技术总监预计,5年之内,每名学生都会配备平板电脑。

    图片来源:Piper Jaffray 

    无论是在苹果(Apple)零售店统计顾客人数,还是在大型卖场Mall of America里询问手机用户,也无论所作的调查是否重要,投资银行Piper Jaffray的吉恩•明斯特堪称是小型问卷调查领域的大师。

    他的最新动作是对25名教育界的技术总监进行了问卷调查,当时他们正在一间教室就集成技术举行会议。明斯特在周一致客户的报告中写道:“虽然调查样本很小,但他们代表了美国教育界IT领域的决策层。”

    明斯特有何发现?具体如下:

    • 所有学校都在部署或测试iPad。没有人部署或测试Android平板电脑。

    • 他们的学校中,平均每10名学生配备有1台电脑。

    • 将近一半人(12)认为,最终目标是为每位学生配备1台电脑。有两位技术总监的学校已经实现这一目标。

    • 超过三分之一的人(9)计划将为每名学生配备1台平板电脑。其中有一位技术总监所在的学校已做到这点。

    不过,考虑到美国学校面临的诸多难题,以此得出教育改革的宏观愿景未免有些牵强。(明斯特引用了苹果前零售业务主管罗恩•约翰逊的话,现在的学生可能是“最后一代背书包的学生”。)

    教育界对iPad的偏爱完全压倒谷歌(Google)Android平板电脑,反映出苹果巨大的先发优势,在这点上,明斯特的看法也许是对的。他写道:

    “我们在教育领域还发现一个趋势(同样也存在于企业领域):学生们(或雇员们)都很熟悉苹果设备,他们的需求导致所在机构选择提供苹果设备。”

    以下是明斯特调查结果详细情况:

    Whether counting heads at the Apple Store or buttonholing cell phone users at the Mall of America, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster is the master of the small survey that may or may not be significant.

    His latest: A survey of 25 educational technology directors at a conference on integrating technology in the classroom. "While our sample is small," he writes in a note to clients issued Monday, "so is the population of IT decision makers in the education field in the US."

    And what did he discover? Among his findings:

    • 100% were testing or deploying iPads in their schools. 0% were testing or deploying Android tablets

    • Their schools currently have an average of one computer for every 10 students

    • Nearly half (12) expect to eventually deploy one computer per child; two of their schools already do

    • More than a third (9) expect to deploy one tablet per child; one of them already does

    Given the huge problems facing America's schools, it's a slender thread on which to base a vision of broad educational reform. (Munster quotes outgoing Apple retail chief Ron Johnson, who has suggested that the current crop of students might be "the last generation with backpacks.")

    But Munster is probably correct that the overwhelming preference for iPads over tablets running Google's (GOOG) Android reflects the power of Apple's (AAPL) first mover advantage. He writes:

    "We also see a trend in education (which is mirrored in the enterprise) that familiarity with Apple devices among students (or employees) is causing a demand pull within institutions to also provide Apple devices."

    Below: The details of Munster's survey results.

    图片来源:Piper Jaffray

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