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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果营收低于预期,股票盘后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
Mac电脑与iPad的销量均创历史记录,但iPhone手机的销量却并不令人满意。

    关于iPhone手机降价的问题:库克称,“我们之所以降低iPhone手机的价格,是因为我们希望更多的消费者能够用上iPhone手机。”他提到了后付费市场。同时表示,iPhone在预付费市场同样占有优势。我们会双管齐下。

    关于组件定价与一体成型外壳的后续问题:库克称,公司目前正在研究一体成型外壳项目,并且在目标中也有所反映。NAND闪存、动态随机存储器(DRAM)和LCD的定价都非常合理。从供应商方面来看,目前市场利好。

    关于iPad的销售与新市场:库克称,iPad在90个国家销售。我们在全球拥有约40,000个销售点。iPod的销售点为50,000个,而iPhone则多达120,000个。尽管iPhone的销售显然在放缓,但iPad销量却增长迅速。本季度,iPad达到了供需平衡,并且一直持续到季度末。至于我刚刚提到过的其他国家,我们已经展开行动。但有部分国家存在贸易保护主义,对未在该国生产的产品施加限制。在中国,从商店销售到广告宣传,我们正竭尽全力推动业务发展。但我们不会一刀切,而是在其他国家我们可能不会这么尽全力。

    作为CEO,是否考虑过派发股息或回购股票?是否考虑过相残效应(cannibalization)?库克:目前确实存在相残效应。有些人宁愿选择iPad,而不是Mac。但与此相比,放弃Windows PC购买iPad的人更多。所以,我相信这样的相残效应还会继续存在。关于现金:我们不会因为手里有了现金就大手大脚。我们不会用这些现金做愚蠢的事情。我们收购了几家公司,购买知识产权,进行生产投资,建立商店。但我对现金并不迷信。长期来看,这是董事会的责任,我们会继续讨论如何妥善使用现金。奥本海默指出,大部分现金都来自海外市场。

    问题:回购股票是否意味着你们已经无法通过创新来创造价值?库克称:我们有不可思议的产品线。它们都非常卓越。现金始终是热点问题——我们将坚持做对苹果公司(而不是投资者)最有益的事情。

    库克谈多达15亿的手持设备市场:我们对这个市场非常关注。

    关于“多余的一周”:这真的是线性安排吗?第14周结束时恰逢新年,这对苹果非常重要,但并非是最重要的时期。

    关于日本市场:与其他地区相比,收入与售出设备数量之间的差异在日本市场更大。去年,iPhone 4在日本上市后,这一差额大幅扩大。而另一方面,Mac产品在日本市场却为公司带来了较多的收入。

    关于iPad价格问题:库克没有正面回应,而是反复强调,他认为平板电脑市场存在巨大的机遇,并称苹果正在准备推出不可思议的新产品(估计是iPad 3)。

    电话会议到此结束。网络广播回放可在两周内拨打电话888-203-1112收听;确认代码为:2922403。

    译者:阿龙/汪皓

    Question about price reductions on iPhones. Cook: "We did it because we wanted to make the iPhone more accessible to a broader market." Mentions post-pay market. It also has advantages in the pre-pay markets. We did it for both markets.

    Follow up on component pricing and unibody casing. Cook: Currently investigating the casing issue, already priced into our guidance. NAND, DRAM and LCDs pricing looks very favorable. Generally a very positive market from supply point of view.

    Question about iPad distribution rollout and new markets. Cook: We are in 90 countries with iPad. We have about 40,000 points of sale around the world. 50,000 on iPod, 120,000 for iPhone. With the iPhone numbers, it's crystal clear there was a slowdown. That is not the case with iPad. Somewhere in the quarter we achieved a supply-demand balance with iPad and stayed there for the rest of the quarter. In terms of other countries, we have already started placing efforts in the countries I mentioned. There are some countries that have protectionist structures for products that aren't built at least in part there. In China we did everything we know how to do, from stores to advertising. We won't be doing all of that in the countries I named, but we'll do portions of it.

    Question about thoughts dividends or share buybacks, now that you are CEO? And what about PC cannibalization. Cook: I do believe we are seeing cannibalization. Some people are buying an iPad rather than a Mac. But more people are buying an iPad rather than an Windows PC. With cannibalization like this, I hope it continues. Regarding cash: Cash not burning a hole in our pocket. We're not the kind of people to do silly things with it. We've acquired several companies, bough intellectual property, invested in production, built out stores. But I'm not religious about cash. It's a topic for the board on an ongoing basis and we will continue to discuss it. Oppenhiemer points out that most of that cash is overseas.

    Question: Is buying back shares a philosophical white flag that you can't create value through innovation. Cook: We have a pipeline that is unbelievable. I view them to be totally distinct things. The cash is always a topic -- we will always do what is in Apple's (i.e. not investors) best interest.

    Cook talks about the size of the 1.5 billion handset market. We are very focused on that.

    Question about the extra week. Is it truly linear? 14th week ends New Years Day, a big day for Apple, but not the biggest.

    Question about Japan. Disparity between revenue vs. units larger than other regions. A huge bump last year from iPhone 4 launch in Japan, so a tough compare. On the other had gained a lot on the Mac side in Japan.

    Question about iPad in terms of price of the device. Cook ducks. Reiterates that he sees the tablet market as a huge opportunity and repeats claim that Apple has fantastic things in the pipeline (presumably the iPad 3).

    That's a wrap. A replay of the webcast will be available for two weeks at replay 888-203-1112; passcode 2922403.

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