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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果营收低于预期,股票盘后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
Mac电脑与iPad的销量均创历史记录,但iPhone手机的销量却并不令人满意。

    苹果公司(Apple)周二公布的第四财季财报并未让投资者满意。虽然公司该季度的表现轻松超过营收目标,但却远未达到分析师和投资者的预期,导致公司股票在盘后交易出现下挫。

    在市场的期待中,苹果公司股票当日收盘价上涨至422.24美元,创历史记录,但盘后交易中每股却一度下跌超过28美元(6.7%)。

    尤其是iPhone手机的销量远低于预期。在与分析人士召开的电话会议中,苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆•库克与首席财务官彼得•奥本海默将销量下滑归于两个原因:1)零售合作伙伴在之前几个季度建立的iPhone 4库存出现不足;2)特别是在本财季后半段,关于新款iPhone手机的“谣言铺天盖地”,使市面上现有iPhone手机的销售放缓。

    分析人士的预期与公司的表现为何会存在如此巨大的差距?咨询公司Bullish Cross的安迪•扎克认为,原因是苹果公司在6月份所在的第二财季的营收超出目标22%,远远超过15% -18%的平均水平。而本财季营收仅超出目标13%,这使得大部分分析师,尤其是看涨的独立分析师们倍感失落。

    具体财报数据如下:

    销售额:282.7亿美元,同比上涨28%

    利润:66.2亿美元,上涨53.6%

    每股利润:7.05美元,上涨34.2%

    iPhone销量:1,707万台,上涨21%

    本财季下半部分,因消费者等待iPhone 4S手机,导致iPhone手机销量下跌

    在亚太地区,iPhone手机销量翻了一番以上

    iPad销量:1,112万台,上涨166%,创下最新季度记录

    Mac:489万台,上涨26%,创下最新季度记录

    在亚太地区,Mac销量上涨了61%

    iPod销量:662万台,下降27%。其中iPod touch占销量的1/2强

    零售:截至财季末,苹果零售商店总计数量为365家

    每店营收:1,070万美元,低于上一季度的1,180万美元

    毛利润率:40.3%

    现金与有价证券:816亿美元

    现金增值:本财季54亿美元

    营业收入目标:370亿美元

    每股利润目标:9.30美元

    毛利润率目标:40%

    对于本季度的收入情况,公司首席执行官蒂姆•库克称自己非常“激动”,而首席运营官彼得•奥本海默也表示“非常高兴”。公司该季度的表现创下9月份新高,但华尔街的投资者希望苹果公司能够创下前所未有的历史记录,很遗憾,苹果并未达到这个预期。苹果公司的表现一直都超出投资者的预期,因此此次“退步”确实极为罕见。

    点击查看新闻稿。

    以下为财报电话会议的内容摘要:

    关于让笔者迷惑不已的iPhone手机库存水平问题:库克信心满满地称,本季度iPhone手机销量将创历史新高。6月份那个季度,iPhone手机销量下降的情况并没有外界担忧的那么严重,但本季度末,iPhone手机的销售却遭到重创。

    Apple (AAPL) reported disappointing results for its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday. Although it handily beat its guidance, it fell far short of the expectations of analysts and investors, who punished the stock in after-hours trading

    Apple shares, which had closed the day at a record $422.24 amid hopes for an upside surprise, fell at one point more than $28 (6.7%) in after-hours trading.

    iPhones, in particular, came in considerably lower than expected. In a conference call with analysts, CEO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer attributed this to two factors: 1) The draw down in their retail partners' iPhone 4 inventory that had been built-up in the previous quarters and 2) the effect of "pervasive rumors" of a new iPhone, particularly in the second half of the quarter, which slowed sales considerably.

    As for how the analysts' expectations could have been so ahead of the company's performance, Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky attributes it to the fact that Apple beat its guidance by 22% in the June quarter -- far more than the usual 15%-18% beat. This quarter, the company beat its guidance by only 13%, leaving most analysts -- and especially the more bullish independents -- out on a limb.

    The numbers:

    Sales: $28.27 billion, up 28% year over year

    Profits: $6.62 billion, up 53.6%

    EPS: $7.05, up 34.2%

    iPhone: 17.07 million units, up 21%.

    iPhone sales declined in 2nd part of quarter as customers anticipated the iPhone 4S

    iPhone sales more than doubled in Asia-Pacific

    iPad: 11.12 million units, up 166%, a new quarterly record

    Mac: 4.89 million units, up 26%, a new all-time quarterly record

    Mac sales up 61% in Asia-Pacific.

    iPod: 6.62 million units, down 27%. iPod touch more than 1/2 of sales

    Retail: Ended quarter with 365 Apple stores

    Revenue per store: $10.7 million per store, down from $11.8 million

    Gross margin: 40.3%

    Cash and marketable securities: $81.6 billion

    Cash generation: $5.4 billion in the quarter

    Revenue guidance: $37 billion

    EPS guidance: $9.30

    Gross margin guidance: 40%

    CEO Tim Cook pronounced himself "thrilled" and COO Peter Oppenheimer "extremely pleased," with revenue that was, after all, a record for September. But Wall Street had been looking for an all-time record, and that they did not get. It was a rare setback from a company that usually beats expectations.

    Press release here.

    Notes from earnings call below the fold.

    Talk about iPhone inventory levels that lost me. Cook confident he will set an all-time record iPhone sales this quarter. The decline in iPhone sales in the June quarter wasn't as bad as they feared, but hit hard at the end of the September quarter.

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