美国数据调查机构Asymco的贺拉斯•德迪乌长期跟踪苹果公司（Apple）不断增长的流动资产及其手机领域竞争对手不断缩水的市值，他预测称这两者不久就能旗鼓相当。

    下周将是苹果第三财政季度截止日，德迪乌确信到时候苹果所拥有的现金流、现金等价物、短期有价证券和长期有价证券的总价值将高达700 亿美元。他指出，与预测的一致，这一数字一直在持续增长。

    与此同时，苹果对手品牌的市值却一直都在缩水。四家竞争者掌握了全球75%的手机市场，总价值为660亿美元：

    • 诺基亚（Nokia） 226亿美元

    • 黑莓 138亿美元

    • 宏达电（HTC） 254亿美元

    • 摩托罗拉（Motorola Mobility） 42亿美元

    索尼（Sony），三星（Samsung）和LG占据了其余25%的手机市场。它们的价值比较难估计，但是德迪乌还是尝试估计了一下，结果如上图。

    当然，考虑到反垄断法和收购对公司股票的影响，德迪乌的假设永远不会成为现实。

    Asymco's Horace Dediu has been tracking Apple's (AAPL) growing liquid assets and the shrinking valuations of its mobile competitors, and he estimates that they soon will cross.

    Apple's third fiscal quarter closes next week, and when it does, Dediu is pretty sure that Apple will have amassed more than $70 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term marketable securities and long-term marketable securities. That figure, as he points out, has been growing predictably.

    Meanwhile, the enterprise value of Apple's competitors has been shrinking. Four of them control 75% of the global cellphone market and have a total valuation of $66 billion:

    • Nokia $22.6b

    • RIM $13.8b

    • HTC $25.4b

    • Motorola Mobility $4.2b

    The last 25% -- controlled by the cellular divisions of Sony, Samsung and LG -- are trickier to value. He takes a crack at it here. The result is the chart above.

    Of course, given antitrust concerns and what happens to a company's shares when someone makes a bid for them, Dediu's thought experiment would never actually come to pass.