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专栏 - 苹果2_0

富士康爆炸案对苹果期权的Max Pain价格有何影响

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年05月25日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
这次事件为我们提供了一份期权市场对突发性事件如何反应的案例研究。

爆炸发生前、后苹果期权的Max Pain价格。图片来源:BSL

    我们曾就期权买卖如何影响苹果(Apple)股价写过很多文章。因此,我们觉得如果看看有一天苹果股价反过来推动期权市场——所谓的Max Pain价格,即期权卖家利润最大、买家损失最大的执行价——的情况,一定很有启发意义。

    自从去年7月苹果的一周期权开始交易以来,几乎每个周五苹果股价都收于或接近Max Pain价格,如果上周五没有中国iPad 工厂爆炸这样的意外消息影响,可能也会这样。

    上面两张图源自读者密克•布莱基的一张幻灯片演示稿。在现实生活身为火箭科学家兼资深电脑用户的布莱基一直密切跟踪Max Pain价格的变动。图一是上周五开盘前的截屏,Max Pain价格为340美元。苹果股票开盘报339.56美元,日间交易区间不超过1美元,直到中国工厂爆炸消息传出。图二是收盘后的截屏,Max Pain价格已降至335美元。苹果股价收于335.22美元。

    欲知更多信息,可参阅布莱基的《Fast Look at Weekly Options》,可点击这里

    We've written a lot lately about how traders buying and selling options seem to be driving Apple's (AAPL) share price (see here, here and here.) So we thought it might be instructive to look at what happened on a day when Apple's share price took over and drove the options market -- specifically, the so-called Max Pain price point where options writers make the most profit and options buyers suffer the biggest losses.

    Apple's shares have closed at or near Max Pain nearly every Friday since weekly option trading in Apple began last July, and they might have done so again last Friday if unexpected news -- in the form of an explosion in a Chinese iPad factory -- hadn't intervened.

    The charts above are from a slide show put together by reader Mick Blackledge, a real-life rocket scientist and veteran computer user who's been following the Max Pain story closely. In the first chart, a snapshot taken before Friday's opening, Max Pain stood at $340. Apple opened at $339.56 and traded within a $1 range until news of the explosion in China crossed the wires. In the second, taken after the closing bell, Max Pain has shifted to $335. Apple closed at $335.22.

    For more detail, see Blackledge's "Fast Look at Weekly Options" here.

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