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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果2季度业绩大超预期,但iPad销量除外

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年04月22日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
1,865万台iPhone手机和376万台Mac电脑推动苹果公司2季度销售额增长83%,利润增长95%。

图片来源:Google Finance

    苹果公司(Apple)本周三如期公布了创纪录的第二季度业绩,所有数据都超越了公司指导值和华尔街的预测,但iPad销售除外。

    “伴随着季度营收增长83%,利润增长95%,我们正在全速前进,”史蒂夫•乔布斯在一份准备好的声明中表示,“今年余下时间我们将继续全面推进创新。”声明只字未提那些iPad数据。

    华尔街原本预计iPad销量会达到630万台,明显高于苹果公司此次公布的469万台。但鉴于长长的等待购买名单和运输延迟,2季度iPad销量低于预期显然是供应所致,而非需求问题。

    “我们生产的所有iPad 2都已售出,”苹果首席财务官彼得•奥本海默在分析师电话会议上表示。苹果首席营运官蒂姆•库克称这是“非常严重的订单积压”(mother of all backlogs)。

    苹果股价继周三收盘上涨4.55美元后,在盘后交易中再涨近14美元。

    细看来自季报电话会议的数据和细节:

    • 销售额: 246.7亿美元,同比增长82.8%

    • 利润: 59.9亿美元,增长95%

    • 每股收益: 6.4美元,增长92%

    • iPhone销量: 1,865万台,增长113% (!)

    • 美国iPhone销量增长155%,部分得益于Verizon;大中华区增长250%

    • iPad销量: 469万台,低于1季度的733万台

    • iPad销售流通:510万台,原因是库存下降

    • Mac销量: 376万台,增长28%。亚太地区Mac销量增长76%

    • iPod销量: 902万台,下降17%。超过50%为iPod touch

    • iTunes商店: 销售额14亿美元

    • 毛利润率: 41.4%,指导值为38.5%

    • 苹果直营店: 客流量7,110万人次,增长50%

    • 直营店销售额: 31.9亿美元,增长90%

    • 现金和可售证券: 658亿美元,高于1季度的597亿美元

    • 3季度营业收入指导值: 230亿美元

    • 3季度每股收益指导值: 5.03美元

    • 3季度毛利润率指导值: 38%

    分析师们提出的第一个问题是日本大地震对苹果公司供应链的影响。首席营运官蒂姆•库克表示,2季度苹果未感到有何影响,3季度估计也不会有“重大”影响,但6月份以后可能存在风险。“如果有什么事情导致状况恶化,会让我担心。”

    库克对苹果公司电脑销量的增长尤感兴奋,特别是在IDC上周公布整体个人电脑市场销量下滑3%的情况下。这是Mac电脑连续第二十个季度销量表现强于同类电脑。“我们似乎是这个领域内唯一生产创新产品的人,”库克表示。

    此外,库克还批评了Android手机,将苹果的一体化模式与谷歌(Google)的分散化模式进行了有失偏颇的比较。他说,用户们喜欢苹果全盘负责iPhone体验,分散化模式是将用户变成系统整合者,“而我知道很少有客户希望成为系统整合者”。

    当被问到乔布斯何时能重返工作岗位,库克出言谨慎。他说,“我们定期与他碰头”,乔布斯仍在参与公司的战略决策,“我知道他确实希望尽早回来。”

    至于本周早些时候苹果公司提起的三星(Samsung)知识产权诉讼案,库克表示三星仍是一家重要的供应商,但苹果公司感到三星移动部门已“越过了界线”。由于无法协商解决这个问题,苹果公司决定诉至法庭。

    Macworld网站已发布经过编辑的此次电话会议纪录,具体可点击这里。Seeking Alpha应会发布有关内容。两周内你还能在苹果公司网站上聆听音频网播,具体可点击这里

    As expected, Apple (AAPL) reported record second quarter earnings Wednesday, blowing past its own guidance and Wall Street's expectations in everything but iPad sales.

    "With quarterly revenue growth of 83 percent and profit growth of 95 percent, we're firing on all cylinders," said Steve Jobs in a prepared statement that said nothing about those iPad numbers. "We will continue to innovate on all fronts throughout the remainder of the year."

    Wall Street had been expecting iPad sales on the order of 6.3 million units, considerably more than the 4.69 million Apple reported. But given the long lines and shipping delays, the shortfall was clearly due to supply issues, not demand.

    "We sold every iPad 2 we could make," said CFO Peter Oppenheimer in the conference call with analysts. COO Tim Cook described the situation as "the mother of all backlogs."

    Apple shares, which closed up $4.55, rose nearly $14 more in after-hours trading.

    Below the fold: The numbers and details from the earnings call.

    • Sales: $24.67 billion, up 82.8% year over year

    • Profits: $5.99 billion, up 95%

    • EPS: $6.4, up 92%

    • iPhone: 18.65 million units, up 113% (!)

    • U.S. iPhone sales were up 155%, thanks in part to Verizon; Greater China up 250%

    • iPad: 4.69 million units, compared with 7.33 million in Q1.

    • iPad sell-through was 5.1 million units, given the decline in inventory

    • Mac: 3.76 million units, up 28%. Asia-Pacific Mac sales up 76%.

    • iPod: 9.02 million units, down 17%. More than 50% iPod touch

    • iTunes store: Sales of $1.4 billion

    • Gross margin: 41.4%, compared with guidance of 38.5%

    • Apple stores: 71.1 million visitors, up 50%

    • Store sales: $3.19 billion, up 90%

    • Cash and marketable securities: $65.8 billion, up from 59.7 in Q1

    • Revenue guidance for Q3: $23 billion

    • EPS guidance for Q3: $5.03

    • Gross margin guidance for Q3: 38%

    The first question from analysts addressed the impact of the Japanese earthquakes on the company's supply chain. According to COO Tim Cook, Apple experienced no impact in Q2 and anticipated no "material" impact for Q3, although he said there are risks beyond June. "I would worry if something happened and things took a turn for the worse."

    Cook was particularly enthusiastic about the growth in Apple's computer sales, especially in the face of the 3% decline in the broader PC market reported last week by IDC. This is the 20th quarter in a row that the Mac has outperformed its competitors. "We seem to be the only guys building innovative products in that space," Cook said.

    He also took a swipe at the Android phones, comparing Apple's "integrated" approach unfavorably to Google's "fragmented" approach. Users appreciate that Apple takes full responsibility for the iPhone experience, according to Cook. The fragmented approach, he said, turns customers into systems integrators. "And I know very few customers who want to be a systems integrator."

    Asked when Steve Jobs would return, Cook spoke carefully. "We do see him on a regular basis," he said, and Jobs continues to be involved in strategic decisions. "I know that he wants to be back as soon as he can."

    With regards the intellectual property lawsuit Apple filed against Samsung earlier this week, Cook said that Samsung remains a valuable supplier, but that Apple felt its mobile division had "crossed the line." After failing to resolve the issues, Apple decided to leave them to the courts.

    Macworld has posted an edited transcript of the conference call here. Seeking Alpha's should be available later this evening. You can hear Apple's audio webcast here for the next two weeks.

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