美国软件工程师神秘消失之谜

    美国缺软件工程师吗？其实不缺。

    尽管硅谷巨头们纷纷要求美国政府修改移民政策，允许他们聘请外国电脑专家来填补软件工程师职位的缺口，但一家硅谷公司的数据统计却显示，或许并没有这个必要。

    位于加州的Bright.com公司利用大数据分析法把求职者与招聘者进行了配对，然后在上个月发布了一份报告。报告显示，认为美国本土缺乏高水平软件工程师的说法可能根本站不住脚。根据这家公司的统计，对美国H-1B工作签证需求量最大的前十类工作中，只有三类缺乏合格的本国求职者前来应聘。

    Bright.com公司首席科学家大卫•哈德泰克认为：“有人认为我们需要更多的外国科技工作者，但这种看法并不正确。我们在雇佣外国求职者时应该更有针对性。”

    要注意的是，每当有人利用数据证明有争议的政策问题时，总会引起一些人的怀疑。因为我们很容易过度关注某些方面的数据分析以证明某人的观点，从而忽视了其它可能导致更多问题的因素。

    有鉴于此，Bright特别小心地避免了一些陷阱，而且使它的数据适用于更宏观的层面。这家公司首先研究了美国的签证的申请数据，然后把企业招聘所用的工作描述进行了修改，把它写得更宽泛了一些（因为对于一家公司来说，把工作描述写得非常详细是很普遍的现象，导致通常只有临时工才能满足这些苛刻的要求。）然后它再利用自己独有的Bright Sccore系统，把教育背景和求职者对职位的符合程度考虑进去，然后把这些工作描述与45天内美国的100万名活跃求职者（来自2000万人的样本库）进行了配对。

    分析结果并不令人吃惊，但是颇有些让人苦恼。对H-1B签证需求量最大的岗位是电脑系统分析师。虽然Bright公司认为，对于这个职业，很少有美国求职者算得上合格，但是与软件工程师等职业相比，它毕竟是一个相对低薪的工作，而且只需要一个两年制的学历。要知道，H-1B项目主要目的是为了招揽高技术人才。

    对于电脑编程师、软件开发人员和电气工程师等高薪岗位，每有一个外国人申请一次这些岗位的H-1B签证，就有一个以上的美国求职者也符合岗位要求。而对于每一个金融分析师的H-1B签证来说，则有12名美国求职者符合同等要求。

    这个结果可能会激起某些人的排外主义情绪，不过在这些分析结果的背后隐藏着复杂的现象。如果你问纽约或硅谷的科技公司，找编程工作的求职者是否符合要求，他们的第一个反应就是：“如果你知道哪个美国人正在找这种工作，请你告诉我。”

    哈德泰克说：“必须要和两个世界对话，一个是硅谷，一个是硅谷以外的美国其它地方。旧金山湾区的确存在科技人员短缺的问题。” 

    he U.S. has an engineering shortage, right? Well, not exactly, no.

    While the titans of Silicon Valley are calling for immigration reform that will allow them to nab foreign computer gurus to fill open engineering jobs, one of their own has crunched the numbers and discovered that may not be necessary.

    Bright.com, a California-based company that uses big data analysis to pair jobseekers with employers, released a report last month that showed that the supposed dearth of high-skilled engineers in the United States may be fiction after all. In fact, Bright's analysis reveals that for the top 10 jobs where H-1B visas are requested, only three do not currently have enough qualified American jobseekers to satisfy demand.

    "The main conclusion that we need more foreign tech workers is not true," says David Hardtke, Bright's chief scientist. "We need to be more targeted in our use of this program."

    To be sure, using data to argue about contentious policy issues should always prompt skepticism. It's too easy to focus on particular aspects of any data analysis to prove one's point and overlook those items that may raise more questions.

    Bright took great care to avoid several pitfalls and make its data applicable on a large scale. It looked at H-1B applications and rewrote company's job descriptions to make them more generic (it is common for a company to write a job description so specific that only one temporary worker fits the qualifications). Using the company's proprietary Bright Score, which takes into account education and fit as well as proximity to the job, the data crunchers then compared the job descriptions with 1 million active U.S.-based jobseekers (out of a total pool of about 20 million) over 45 days

    What they found was both troubling yet unsurprising. The most requested position when applying for an H-1B is computer systems analyst. Although Bright determined that this position has few qualified American candidates, it is also a lower-paying job compared to jobs like software engineer and requires only a two-year degree. The H-1B program is designed to recruit high-skilled workers.

    For higher paying jobs, like computer programmer, software developer, and electronics engineer, Bright found more than one domestic job candidate for every H-1B application. And for financial analysts, the company found 12 local candidates for every visa application.

    That evidence seems enough to get xenophobes up in arms, but these analyses are complicated. Ask tech companies in New York City or Silicon Valley if the pool of applicants for programmers is meeting their needs, and their first question will be, "Why? Please tell me you know someone who is looking for a job."

    "You have to talk about two worlds: Silicon Valley and the rest of America," Hardtke says. "There is, indeed, a shortage of tech workers in the Bay Area.".