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别只盯着“美国第一”,这才是压倒一切的全球问题

Adam Lashinsky 2018年02月05日

人工智能会导致人类失去工作,应该想办法鼓励劳动者接受必要的技能培训。

在瑞士达沃斯论坛度过的最后一天,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普刚刚完成了一场全程读电子提词器的演讲,宣布美国对企业敞开怀抱,声称“美国第一不代表美国要单打独斗。”这是一场自吹自擂的演说,但既给现场曾支持希拉里·克林顿的人温柔一击,又避免了刺激财力雄厚的听众。(和世界经济论坛创始人克劳斯·施瓦布一样,特朗普在达沃斯也接受了媒体拍照,但没登上头条。)

上周四晚,特朗普与15位企业高管共进晚餐。一位在场的人士告诉我,特朗普和商界人士相处时比较放松,也更愿意倾听别人的看法。当天《财富》也举办了一场晚宴,出席人数比特朗普主持的宴会略多,大家探讨了今年达沃斯论坛上政界和企业界出席者认为更紧迫的话题:人类未来的工作。

讨论主要内容并不是人工智能支持的机器人会不会让全人类失业,因为人们已经知道、也承认人工智能会导致人类失去工作,而且应该想办法鼓励劳动者接受必要的技能培训。

本次《财富》杂志在达沃斯的晚宴规格相当高。我这桌就有世界银行行长金墉、IBM首席执行官罗睿兰、软件公司Salesforce的马克·贝尼奥夫、联合利华首席执行官保罗·波尔曼、帝斯曼集团飞克·谢白曼(帝斯曼公司名原来叫荷兰国有煤矿公司,但谢白曼喜欢解释成“做有意义的事”)。

为新型经济培养人才虽然千头万绪,但势在必行。《财富》晚宴上的讨论涉及很多方面,比如未雨绸缪,多注意培养发展中国家的孩子,指导学校教授市场上迫切需求的技能(而不是研究诗歌之类艺术),关注企业需要哪些特定技能,还要投入更多时间和资金确保具有相应技能的劳动力供应。

这些问题都很严峻。但同席高管都很乐观,让我大为震动。上周我多次感觉到出席达沃斯论坛的精英们都是乐观派。(是天生的还是后天养成的?我想我知道答案。)

当然,他们也有现实主义的一面。最现实的可能就是金墉了,他曾任常春藤盟校达特茅斯学院校长,还是出色的内科医生。他在讲话中经常提到“参考收入”,意思是随着发展中国家人民收入增加,他们会越发关心发达国家的人们收入增加了多少。对比的结果是发展中国家的民众对收入增加并不满意。对于关注全球经济和劳动力的人来说,又是一个令人担忧的挑战。(财富中文网)

译者: Pessy

审稿:夏林

Good morning one last time from Davos, where the U.S. president just finished reading a speech wholly from the teleprompter, declared America open for business, and asserted that “America first does not mean America alone.” It was a self-congratulatory speech that, but for one gentle jab at those in the room who supported Hillary Clinton, completely avoided provoking his well-heeled audience. (Trump did take a shot at the news media, as did World Economic Founder Klaus Schwab, but that won’t make headlines.)

Thursday night, as Donald Trump dined with a group of 15 business executives—I’m told by someone who was there the president was relaxed among fellow businesspeople and in listening mode—Fortune also hosted a dinner. We gathered an only-slightly-larger group to discuss one of the more pressing topics among corporate and government types this year in Davos, the future of work.

This wasn’t so much a conversation about whether robots powered by artificial intelligence will eliminate everyone’s jobs as an acknowledgement that technology will obliterate work as we know it and how to encourage the necessary “re-skilling” in response.

As happens in Davos, our’s was a high-powered gathering. At my table alone were Jim Kim, president of the World Bank, and CEOs Ginni Rometty of IBM , Marc Benioff of Salesforce , Paul Polman of Unilever , Andrew Liveris of Dow , and Feike Sijbesma of DSM. (The conglomerate’s name once was Dutch State Mines, but Sijbesma likes to say it stands for “Doing Something Meaningful.”)

Training people for the new economy is complicated and overwhelming. Our dinner conversation ranged from focusing on feeding children in developing countries as a precursor to educating them to teaching specifically employable skills (as opposed to, say, poetry) to the need for corporations who demand specific skills to do more with their time and money to ensure a supply of workers who have them.

It’s a daunting problem. At the same time, I was struck by the optimism of the group—though it occurred to me more than once this week that attendees at the forum are overwhelmingly optimists. (Nature or nurture? I think I know the answer.)

They also are realists, of course, perhaps no one more than Jim Kim, a former university president and groundbreaking physician. He speaks regularly, here for example, about the concept of “reference income,” the notion that as incomes rise in developing countries so does awareness of how much more money people in the developed world make. That leads directly to dissatisfaction, yet another challenge to worry about for those mindful of the global economy and its workforce.

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