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商业 - 科技

为何英特尔的股价能创18年新高?

AARON PRESSMAN 2018年01月31日

一些好消息让分析师调高了对英特尔的股价预测。

英特尔(Intel)原本势头大好,在竞争中高歌猛进,在服务器和数据中心使用的芯片销量上占据领先地位,直到本月早些时候有关“幽灵”(Spectre)和“熔断”(Meltdown)安全漏洞的新闻浮出水面。

在人们眼中,这些漏洞对英特尔的危害更甚于它们对超微半导体公司(Advanced Micro Devices)和英伟达(Nvidia)的影响,投资者为此感到恐慌。1月2日,英特尔的股价还在46.85美元,翌日安全问题爆出,股价迅速跳水,一周时间就跌至42.50美元,跌幅达9%。

自那以后,英特尔的股价开始缓慢回升。上周四,公司发布了成绩斐然的第四季度财报,并做出了一系列保证和承诺,于是华尔街表示既往不咎。周五上午,英特尔股价猛涨9%,达到49.41美元。这是2000年互联网泡沫破灭以来公司股价的新高。等到当日收盘时,股价涨幅已经达到11%,报50.08美元。而公众对于英特尔未来销售的乐观态度也让其竞争对手沾了些光,AMD和英伟达的股价也分别上涨了4%和3%。

公司的第一个承诺直接来自首席执行官科再奇,他在与分析师的电话中向投资者保证,修复安全漏洞是当务之急。他表示:“我们一直把安全性放在首要地位,这次的事件进一步增强了我们开发全球最安全产品的使命感。这将是一段漫长持久的路程,但我们决心致力于此,我对未来迎接挑战充满信心。”

迄今为止,英特尔在处理安全问题上成败参半,一些补丁会降低性能,另一些补丁则导致了电脑崩溃,不得不移除。不过对投资者来说,关键在于科再奇表示公司目前没有发现任何销量受损的迹象,因此也不会调低销售额预期。他对分析师表示:“我们有一个预测,新年的头几周里我们会仔细验证,目前还不需要真正调整它。”他说,修复漏洞也不会对开销或产品成本产生“重大影响”。

英特尔解释了最近对企业的减税将如何提高公司今年的利润,这成为了第二个有用的数据点。更低的税费将让英特尔2018年的每股收入增加28美分,首席财务官鲍勃·斯旺称,调整后利润将达到每股3.55美元。他表示,公司收入预计将增加4%(不包括拆分的McAfee部门),达到650亿美元。这还是在英特尔的PC芯片业务持续萎缩的情况下实现的,不过斯旺也表示,服务器和数据中心使用的芯片销售额预计将会有“百分之十几”的增长率。

这些好消息让一些分析师调高了对英特尔的股价预测。伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的斯塔西·拉斯贡是著名的看跌者,他把自己的预测值从34美元上调到了38美元。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的约瑟夫·摩尔对英特尔也不太热情,他把预测值从39美元上调至43美元。而瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的韦杰·拉克什则推荐购买英特尔股票,他把股价预测从47美元上调到了52美元。(财富中文网)

(更新:本文更新于1月26日,文中采用了当日的收盘价。)

译者:严匡正

 

Intel was on a roll, powering past the competition to sell more chips for servers and data centers, until news of the Spectre and Meltdown security attacks surfaced earlier this month.

The weaknesses, which were seen as hurting Intel more than competitors Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia, spooked investors. Intel’s stock price dropped rapidly from $46.85 on January 2, the day before the first security issues hit, to as low as $42.50 a week later, a 9% decline.

The stock had been recovering somewhat since then, but after a series of reassurances, promises and good results in Thursday’s fourth quarter earnings release, Wall Street says all is forgiven. Intel shares jumped as much as 9% to a high of $49.41 on Friday morning. That’s the highest price since before the Internet bubble popped back in 2000. By the end of the day, the stock had gained 11% and closed at $50.08. The positive sentiments about future sales extended to Intel’s competitors, as shares of AMD (AMD, +4.19%) gained 4% and Nvidia (NVDA, +2.92%) rose 3%.

The first promise came right up front from Intel CEO Brian Krzanich on a call with analysts, as he assured investors that correcting the security flaws was a top priority. “Security has always been a priority for us and these events reinforce our continuous mission to develop the world’s most secured products,” he said. “This will be an ongoing journey, but we’re committed to the task and I’m confident we’re up to the challenge.”

Intel has had mixed success addressing the security issues so far, with some patches slowing performance and another that had to be withdrawn after causing PC crashes. But critically for investors, Krzanich said the company hasn’t seen any impact on sales and wouldn’t be reducing its sales forecast as a result. “We had a forecast we checked in as we go through the first few weeks of the year and it hasn’t really changed that as we looked at it,” he told the analysts. Fixing the flaws won’t have a “material impact” on spending or product costs, either, he said.

The second helpful data point came as Intel explained how the recent corporate tax cuts would bolster its bottom line this year. Lower taxes will add 28 cents per share to Intel’s earnings in 2018, leading to $3.55 per share in adjusted profits CFO Bob Swan said. Revenue is forecast to grow 4% (excluding the divested McAfee unit) to $65 billion, he said. That will happen even as Intel’s PC chip business continues to shrink, but sales of chips for servers and data centers are expected to increase at a percentage rate in the “mid teens,” Swan said.

The good news prompted several analysts to raise their price targets on Intel (INTC, +10.51%). Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein Research, a noted bear on the stock, pushed his target up to $38 from $34. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore, who also has been less-than-enthusiastic about Intel, hiked his target to $43 from $39. And Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho Securities, who actually recommends buying Intel shares, raised his target to $52 from $47.

(Update: This story was updated on January 26 with closing stock prices.)

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