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印度将成世界最重要经济体

Christ Matthews 2017年11月09日

中国作为全球最令人兴奋的经济体的日子或许已经不多了。

这归根结底是个人口红利的问题。由于中国的计划生育政策,中国的劳动力基数已经开始缩减,而其邻国印度的劳动力基数却正以惊人的速度增加。

据安永会计事务所称,到2020年,印度的劳动力大军就将达到9亿之多。而号称拥有世界第三大劳动力人口的美国,其劳动人口总数也就不到1.6亿人。

学过一点经济学的人都知道,经济增长归根结底取决于资本(如工厂和计算机系统)和劳动力,因此劳动力的增加无疑对经济有着巨大的推动作用。但与此同时,印度政府也必须为劳动人口提供有效的培训,并且建设必要的基础设施,以促进经济增长。比如CNNMoney指出:

“据安永会计事务所称,目前只有2%的印度工人接受过正式的技能培训,而在英国、德国和韩国,这个比例分别高达68%、75%和96%。

印度的各行各业都存在这个问题。据英国皇家特许测量师学会估计,2010年印度需要近400万名土木工程师,而满足技能要求的只有50.9万人。到2020年,印度对土木工程师的缺口将达到460万人,而印度只能供给77.8万人。

在建筑师领域也存在同样的缺口。到2020年,印度将需要43.7万名建筑师,而印度只能提供其中的17%。

如果印度能成功地将其庞大的人力资源转化成具有生产力的工人,那它将很快取代中国,成为另一个让美国经济观察家又敬又怕的经济体。(财富中文网)

译者:贾政景

That’s because while China’s workforce has already begun to shrink, in part as a result of the country’s one-child policy, its neighbor to the West, India, is growing its workforce at a breakneck pace.

According to Ernst and Young, the Indian workforce will grow to 900 million strong by 2020. To put that in perspective, the American workforce, which is the third largest in the world, comes in at just under 160 million people.

Because economic growth results from the combination of capital goods, like factories and computer systems, with labor, a growing labor force can be a huge boon for an economy. At the same time, the Indian government must also train its workforce effectively and build the necessary infrastructure to help its economy flourish. According to CNNMoney:

Currently only 2% of India’s workers have received formal skills training, according to Ernst & Young. That compares with 68% in the U.K., 75% in Germany and 96% in South Korea.

It’s a problem spread across industries. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors estimates that in 2010, India needed nearly 4 million civil engineers, but only 509,000 professionals had the right skills for the jobs. By 2020, India will have only 778,000 civil engineers for 4.6 million slots.

There is a similar gap among architects. India will have only 17% of the 427,000 professionals it needs in 2020.

If India can successfully transform its human resources into productive workers, you can expect it to quickly replace China as the economy that both inspires fear and respect among American economy watchers.

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