虽然输掉了和王健林的赌局，但马云对零售业的颠覆不会停止

6月16日亚马逊宣布收购全食超市，对于电子商务的这次“示警”，人们已经期待了好几年。不过，这笔价值137亿美元的交易仍在美国造成了巨大影响，它代表着已经把整个零售行业闹了个底朝天的数字颠覆下一阶段的动向。但中国没出现这样的情况，因为这种革新早已在中国出现。我们的考察表明，有许多相关教训有待其他人学习，而且要快速学习。

2012年底，两家最成功的中国企业就国内零售行业的未来公开打赌。在电视观众面前，以购物中心为根基的地产行家王健林跟处于上升态势的电商巨擘阿里巴巴首席执行官马云打赌说，网上购物绝不会取代实体店。王健林还打赌说，10年内在线消费占零售总额的比重仍不会超过50%，赌注是1亿元人民币（当时约合1600万美元）。

五年后，要赢下赌局的似乎还是王健林。没错，中国三大数字巨头，也就是百度、阿里巴巴和腾讯（合称BAT），已经开始侵蚀实体店的市场份额。在中国国家防火墙阻拦了外部竞争的情况下，这些科技颠覆者在10年间由默默无闻变为行业主导。阿里巴巴和腾讯以电商为重点，百度则主宰了搜索市场。如今，它们均跻身中国最有价值的五大品牌之列，合计品牌价值接近2000亿美元。

没错，在线销售占中国零售总额的比重仍只有15%，虽远高于2012年，但很难算得上巨变。尽管存在“末日预言”，但中国的实体零售并未走上消亡之路。购物者仍需要实体店，仍需要在这里感触商品、社交和问问题，进而获得网购无法复制的经验。那么，零售商和地产公司该长出一口气了吗？

实际情况证明他们不该，而且看到其中缘由的业内人士寥寥无几。

中国零售业的真正威胁或许不是网购，而是中国电商巨擘越来越有可能把注意力转向改善实体零售上。

手握储备资金，持有的消费者数据体量巨大而且不断增长，这让阿里巴巴和腾讯既有能力又有动力来重新定义传统的实体店购物。当他们这样做时，零售生态系统的现有成员，包括仓储型超市、购物中心、房地产中介和开发商，也许都将面对前所未有的颠覆。

这就是四个月来亿康先达走访零售房地产龙头高管以及业内人士得出的主要结论。我们的解读是，线上到线下（O2O）革命带来的冲击被远远低估，而且几乎会实实在在地打传统零售企业一个措手不及。

要摆脱这种狭隘思维，零售商和开发商必须立即“换挡”，不光是战略上，还要从人才角度进行战术调整。迫切需要的是拥有强大数字技能的经理和高管，他们要明白转型的范畴和规模，从而弥补目前大型零售企业的一大空白。没有这些关键人员，今后传统零售商就很难蓬勃发展。有些公司或许根本就生存不下去。

已经出现的“新零售”模式

阿里巴巴的马云从2016年开始倡导“新零售”概念，用他的话来说就是“在一条价值链上对线上、线下、物流以及数据的整合”。考虑到阿里巴巴已经占中国零售总额（包括75%的在线销售）的十分之一以上，年收入增幅高达50%，这番话的意义着实难以估量。

阿里巴巴已经在迅速采取行动——在一年多一点儿的时间里，该公司已经从开设第一家实体店发展到了斥资26亿美元收购大型百货连锁银泰商业。而这还仅仅是个开始。

今年2月，阿里巴巴宣布和百联集团建立战略合作关系。百联是国有企业，拥有超市、购物中心和连锁百货商场，在上海和东部沿海地区有大量未充分利用的零售场所。双方将共享线下零售分支机构、销售规划能力以及物流和技术。他们已经开始共同设计新的零售店，并将大数据和人工智能纳入零售技术的开发之中。

阿里巴巴还收购了百联旗下联华超市18%的股份，后者拥有约3600家超市和连锁店，业务遍及全国，其中包括知名的“华联”品牌。通过运用大数据，阿里巴巴志在重塑零售行业，也就是结合线上与线下，从而打造新的单一渠道O2O体验。这种体验似乎会让电商对抗实体店的观念显得过时，甚至是完全无足轻重。传统零售店的支点会让阿里巴巴和其他数字颠覆者积累更为精细的消费者行为数据，从而通过有利的反馈来巩固他们的在线领域主导地位。

阿里巴巴首席执行官张勇曾对记者表示：“我们希望看到化学反应。如果可以培育出别人从未见过的商业模式，那我们就走上了正确的道路。”对此，一家仓储型零售商的CEO评论说：“它正在改变整个格局……这是个你必须应对的现实。”一家国有开发商的高管具有前瞻性思维，他在接受我们采访时指出，传统零售商迫切需要找到合作途径，“实体商业想和腾讯等互联网企业合作的原因是如果自行其是，我们就注定会失败”。

如果得到正确执行，阿里巴巴的“新零售”愿景不仅打算重塑国内购物领域，还会让中国在零售创新方面一跃超过美国和欧洲。中国已经在融合社交媒体、网络搜索和电商方面走在了前面，腾讯等社交平台已经实现支付和购物功能的无缝衔接，把所有这些都放在一个有围墙的花园中。

就在亚马逊通过Amazon Go等业务在美国试水实体销售之际，阿里巴巴的规模和发展速度已经达到了前所未有的水平。阿里巴巴和腾讯等公司共同进入实体零售领域可能会让目前电商对零售的颠覆显得微不足道。在中国，这些巨头处于准受保护状态，跨国公司则无法立足，这更让此种趋势变得显而易见。

鸵鸟心态

如果阿里巴巴把注意力转向房地产，能够获得优质资产并通过以数据为核心的方式设计出自己独有的实体购物体验，传统开发商就会消失。随着阿里巴巴和腾讯用自己的算法来确立针对目标人群的最佳店铺组合方式，商业地产中介可能会发现自己正在被迅速边缘化。随着互联网企业通过大数据和机器学习让店内体验变得更为个性化而且更加便利，传统零售企业的购物者或许会迅速流失。与此同时，如果购物中心从销售场所转型为网上销售的体验式展厅，基于店内销售额分成的整个业主-商户模式就有可能改写，它所颠覆的就不仅仅是实体店或者零售连锁企业，而是中国的整个零售房地产行业。

对于这些生死攸关的问题，传统零售商迄今为止的普遍反应仍局限于略感不安到毫不在乎之间。在电商的步步紧逼下，一些开发商发现销售额不断滑坡后已经积极采取了措施，将购物中心重新打造成更接近“体验中心”的场所，后者不光是销售商品，还供人们浏览、闲逛并进行尝试。其他开发商则加大了在奢侈品市场的投入，实际情况证明这在一定程度可以抵御来自网络的冲击。然而，几乎没有开发商采取真正必要的措施，以便在这个线上-线下快速融合的世界保持竞争力。考虑此类融合对人才的战略性影响的开发商更是少之又少。

我们的许多采访对象似乎都对不断迫近的危机掉以轻心，其中包括大陆、新加坡和香港龙头房地产开发公司的高层。他们把在线零售商市场份额有限以及争取顾客的高成本视为电商威胁不大的证据。人们总会需要实体店以及实体店购物体验无可取代的想法令人感到欣慰，而许多对此念念不忘的人都低估了今后线下领域面临的潜在颠覆。一位房地产咨询公司高层告诉我们：“零售业已经度过了最艰难时刻。网购什么的也消停了一些。”国内大卖场龙头之一的一位主要负责人甚至坚持说：“说到底，我相信在线零售绝对无法自行盈利。”

零售业的对策

中国传统零售商怎样才能避免被今天的颠覆者吞噬呢？对整个行业的观察让我们了解到了哪些办法也许有用，哪些可能不会奏效。

王健林的大连万达集团显露出了零售业界的傲慢，这有些警戒意味。10年来，这家房地产开发公司实现了高速扩展，在国内各地建起了数百家整齐划一的百货商场和购物中心，随后又迅速关闭了几百家。在自身规模和可观机构资源的鼓舞下，万达基本上不把电商革命放在眼里。它觉得消费者离不开自己，因而未能通过改造自己的店铺或使其个性化来提升客流。万达的购物者成批流失，都转移到了更高档的购物场所或在线零售商那里。

其他开发商，特别是东部沿海拥有高档物业的那些，则更积极地把旗下购物中心改造成更具“体验性”的场所。他们的思路是为消费者提供一个实体空间，以便他们进行线上不可能完成的事，从到餐馆吃饭、观看现场表演，到和其他购物者交际，再到在展厅内尝试最新产品。一家大型国有开发商的一位高管甚至预计：“在未来，‘某某购物中心’也许会去掉购物这两个字，因为人们到这里是为了交际、开心和娱乐，不一定要买东西。”

顾客忠诚度项目，包括为到店顾客提供积分和消费返还，也成了让人们进入实体店而不是在线购物的手段。凯德集团的“凯德购物星”就是一例，这是该公司覆盖整个亚洲的跨店面、跨购物中心无卡奖励活动。

在零售竞争加剧情况下的生存和发展也许要依靠来自酒店业的经验。这就要求零售商认识到消费者购买的不仅仅是商品，还包括有特色、有品牌的体验。最好的酒店通过独特的风格和服务来获得忠实顾客，他们第一次和客人打交道就能体现出这一点，与之相同的是，进取型购物中心必须更好地定义并提供超越其他任何店铺的品牌化体验。在这方面，嘉里集团和新鸿基等国际性开发商行动较快，已经把酒店元素融入了他们的物业管理方法中。门房式服务，再加上对所有跟消费者互动的环节进行以消费体验为重点的培训，使得他们的店面受到人们的青睐。正如香港一家大型高档购物中心开发商所说：“你需要人们在购物中心消磨时光。购物经历本身并不是那么重要。”

数据很重要

没错，光凭这些措施来削弱颠覆者的力量和优势也许效果甚微。最终形成差距的是数据，而不是就餐方面的选择或奖励积分。

就捕捉消费者信息并将其用于打造个性化的流畅购物体验而言，从实体店起步的零售商往往远远落后于网店。但进取型零售商正在迅速升级。在亚洲和欧洲拥有逾1.3万家保健和美容商店的屈臣氏集团最近表示，将投入7000万美元，以便将企业数据平台纳入自身运营体系。该平台将为整个屈臣氏提供统一的消费者数据并通过机器学习来处理大数据并改善消费体验。

和在线零售商进行创造性合作从而共享数据和技术也有可能带来成果……至少理论上如此。问题来自于大多数合作的不对称性——电商巨头的目标是资源和数据，他们往往掌握所有的筹码。这让传统零售商处于被动位置，毫无能力，缺乏意愿，或者对合作伙伴过于小心。一家高档购物中心开发商解释说：“当然，他们[阿里巴巴]总是承诺也可以跟我们分享一些东西，但到了最后他们也许不会这样做。”

举例来说，阿里巴巴最近接触了国内一家大型连锁大卖场经营商，商讨数据共享事宜。阿里巴巴打算提供某个规划中大卖场周边五公里范围内的详细购物行为，从性别到季节性偏好，无所不包。作为交换，阿里巴巴要求大卖场方面拿出他们的一部分消费者数据来进行分享。后者拒绝了此事，原因是该公司CEO无法衡量付出和所得是否匹配。

通过自己支持的生鲜电商盒马鲜生，阿里巴巴已经在展示此类线上-线下混合体的真正潜力。盒马鲜生已经在上海和北京开了近10家店。在这里，购物者看到的是从100个国家和地区精挑细选的3000种商品，而且以高档饮食为重点。消费者可以用手机app在线下单，五公里以内30分钟送达。他们还可以在店内购物，从而真正诠释阿里巴巴的O2O愿景。数字价格标签实时更新，购物者可以扫描条形码，通过盒马app进行支付，所购商品免费送货。为突出“体验”元素，盒马鲜生还会专门组织消费者活动，甚至设立了开放式厨房，可现场烹饪人们购买的食材。

同时，手机app会详细记录购物者的全部行为，如所购商品和店内行进路线。这些数据甚至有可能比每单价值等传统行为指标更有价值。通过借线上技术在线下收集和应用大数据，阿里巴巴最终可以简化并定制购物体验，从而获得相对于传统零售商的竞争优势，而且这种优势只会继续扩大。

领导零售革命

电商的发展已经让一些零售商无法继续自满下去。进取型零售商正在聘请具备数字能力、经历丰富、对新点子持开放态度而且有着较高战略定位的领导者。在亿康先达，我们认为培育和留住数字人才的最重要因素是企业文化。公司及其负责人应有意识地建立鼓励试验、学习、速度和适应性的文化。

在传统下线企业中，形成适于数字时代的文化并不容易。这需要以消费者为中心，开放、合作、持续学习以及“快速试错”的意愿，还需要高层既看到潜在威胁，也看到明确威胁，就算这会让他们深感不安。这样的数字人才一定要能就公司的经营模式提出疑问并展开辩论，并且激发创造性思维，从而和纯粹的科技公司携手开展创造与合作。

能对这种自下而上的数字思维进行充分整合，或者说把恰当的科技交到恰当的管理者手中的公司将在今后几年繁荣发展。相反，零售生态系统中诸多一成不变地从事经营活动的参与者或许会发现去中介化趋势在自己身上体现的越来越明显。王健林那个著名的“中国零售行业未来”赌局才过了五年，实际情况证明在线零售商和实体店的真正争夺根本还没有开始。相反，目前展开争夺的是旧零售和新零售。这次，王健林以及他代表的传统零售模式的运气也许就会耗尽。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

The June 16 announcement that Amazon was buying Whole Foods was the e-commerce shot across the bow that everyone has anticipated for years. Still, the $13.7 billion deal came as a huge shock in the United States; it represented the next stage of the digital disruption that has upended all of retail. But it didn't in China, where this revolution is well underway. Our work there shows that there are many relevant lessons that others need to learn—and learn fast.

In late 2012, two of China’s most successful entrepreneurs made a very public bet on the country’s retail future. In front of a TV audience, Wang Jianlin, the real-estate maven who built his fortune in shopping malls, wagered Jack Ma, president of ascendant e-commerce giant Alibaba, that online shopping would never replace physical stores. Putting up 100 million RMB (about $16 million at the time) of his own cash, Wang bet that in 10 years online consumption would still account for less than half of all retail.

Five years out, it seems the good money is still on Wang. Yes, China’s big three digital titans—Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT for short)—have eroded brick-and-mortar market share. Protected behind the Great Firewall from outside competition, these tech disruptors— Alibaba and Tencent focus primarily on e-commerce, while Baidu dominates search—have rocketed over the last decade from obscurity to dominance. They now rank among China’s top 5 most valuable brands , with a collective brand value approaching $200 billion.

Yet, online sales in China still account for just 15% of all retail , a significant bump from 2012 but hardly a sea change. Despite doomsday warnings, retail in China is not dying. Shoppers continue to demand physical stores—to touch and feel, socialize, ask questions, and have an experience that can’t be replicated online. Is it time for retailers and real estate players to breathe a sigh of relief?

No, it turns out—and for reasons that few insiders see coming.

The true threat to retail in China may not be online shopping. It’s the increasing likelihood that the country’s e-commerce giants will turn their attention to doing bricks-and-mortar—better.

Armed with capital reserves, government protections and growing troves of consumer data , Alibaba and Tencent have both the means and the motive to redefine traditional in-store shopping. And when they do, existing players in the retail ecosystem—from big box retailers to malls, real estate agencies and developers—may face unprecedented disruption.

This was the primary conclusion from extended interviews Egon Zehnder conducted with leading retail real estate executives and industry insiders over the past four months. Our takeaway: the impact of the online-to-offline (or “O2O”) revolution is being highly underestimated and stands to take legacy retailers almost completely by surprise.

To overcome this blinkered thinking, retailers and developers must immediately change gears—strategically, but also, critically, from a talent perspective. Urgently needed are managers and executives with a strong digital skill set—an understanding of the scope and scale of transformation that’s sorely lacking among today’s retail giants. Without these key people, traditional players will find it challenging to thrive in the years ahead. Some may not survive at all.

The “New Retail” model that’s already here

Starting in 2016, Alibaba’s Jack Ma advocated the concept of “New Retail”—in his words, “the integration of online, offline, logistics and data across a single value chain.” Considering that Alibaba already accounts for more than one-tenth of China’s total retail sales (including 75% of online sales), with revenues surging at an astounding 50% annual clip, the implications of this overture are hard to overstate.

Already, the company is moving fast: In little over a year , Alibaba has gone from

opening its first physical store to acquiring a major department store chain, Intime Retail, for $2.6 billion. Yet this is just the beginning.

In February, Alibaba announced a strategic alliance with Bailian Group, the state-owned supermarket, mall and department store chain, which boasts massive amounts of underused retail space in Shanghai and on the eastern seaboard. The new partners will share offline retail branches, merchandising capability, logistics and technology. They are already designing new retail outlets together and developing retail technologies incorporating big data and artificial intelligence.

Alibaba has also acquired an 18% stake in Bailian’s Lianhua division—some 3,600 supermarkets and chain stores spread across the country, including the well-known Hualian brand. By enlisting big data, Alibaba aspires to do nothing less than reinvent retail—merging online and offline to form a new unichannel “O2O” experience where the notion of ecommerce versus brick-and-mortar seems quaint, if not wholly irrelevant. A pivot to the traditional retail space will enable Alibaba and other digital disruptors to accumulate even more fine-grained data on consumer behavior, which reinforces their online dominance in a positive feedback loop.

“We hope to see chemical reactions. If we can incubate a type of business model that others have never seen, then we are on the right track,” Daniel Zhang, Alibaba’s CEO, explained to a reporter. Commenting on this, the CEO of one big-box retailer said, “It is changing the whole landscape … It’s a reality which you have to deal with.” Another forward-thinking executive at a state developer who we interviewed pointed out the urgent need for legacy retailers to find ways to cooperate, noting “The reason why brick-and-mortar commerce would want to cooperate with Internet players like Tencent is that standing alone they’re doomed to fail.”

Executed properly, Alibaba’s “New Retail” vision promises not just to remake shopping inside the country, but to leapfrog China ahead of the U.S. and Europe in terms of retail innovation. China is already at the vanguard when it comes to blurring lines between social media, search and e-commerce, with social platforms like Tencent integrating seamless payment and shopping functions, all inside one walled garden.

While Amazon is making tentative inroads into brick-and-mortar in the U.S. through Amazon Go and other offerings, Alibaba’s scale and speed is without precedent. A concerted foray by the likes of Alibaba and Tencent into brick-and-mortar could make the current retail disruptions caused by ecommerce look trifling by comparison. In China, the giants’ quasi-protected status and the inability of international players to gain a foothold only accentuates this trend.

Heads in the sand

If Alibaba turns its attention to real estate—and is able to gain access to prime assets and design its own unique physical shopping experience using a data-centered approach—traditional developers will be displaced. As it and Tencent harness their own algorithms to identify the perfect blend of stores for their target demographic, commercial real estate agencies could quickly find themselves marginalized. With online players applying big data and machine learning to make in-store experiences more personalized and more convenient, legacy retailers may quickly hemorrhage shoppers. Meanwhile, if malls transition from points of sale to experiential showrooms for sales made online, the whole owner-tenant model—based on a percentage of in-store sales—could be rewritten, disrupting not just individual stores or chains, but the entire retail real estate industry in China.

So far, the prevailing response from legacy retailers to these existential questions has ranged from mild trepidation to outright indifference. Some developers, seeing declining sales in the face of e-commerce encroachment, have worked actively to retrofit their malls more as “experiential centers”—places to browse, linger and try on, not merely to shop. Others are doubling down on the luxury market, which has proved to some degree resistant to online encroachment. Few, however are taking the hard steps needed to stay competitive in a world where online and offline are fast converging. And fewer still are considering the strategic talent implications of this convergence.

Many of our interviewees, including executives from leading real estate and development companies in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, seemed complacent about the looming crisis. They point to the limited market share of online players, as well as the high cost of customer acquisition, as evidence of the finite threat posed by e-commerce. Clinging to the comforting idea that people will always need stores and nothing will replace the physical experience of shopping, many underestimate the potential for further offline disruption. “The worst time for retail is over. The online thing is also a bit over,” one real estate consultancy executive told us. A leading executive at one of China’s largest hypermarkets went so far as to insist, “I am convinced that in the end, online will never be feasible on its own to make any profit.”

A response for retail

How can China’s retail incumbents avoid being devoured by today’s disruptors? A look across the industry offers some insight on which solutions may work and which definitely will not.

Wang Jianlin’s own Dalian Wanda Group offers a cautionary tale of retail hubris. After opening hundreds of cookie-cutter department stores and malls around the country in a frenzy of expansion over the last decade, the property developer has closed hundreds in quick succession. Buoyed by its size and considerable institutional resources, Wanda largely ignored the online commerce revolution. Assuming that its consumers were a captive audience, the developer failed to upgrade or customize its properties to drive traffic. Shoppers bolted en masse—moving on to more upscale settings or online alternatives.

Other developers, especially those behind high-end properties on the eastern seaboard, have moved more aggressively to transform their malls into more“experiential” centers. The underlying rationale is to provide consumers with a physical space where they can do all the things impossible online—from eating in restaurants and seeing live entertainment to socializing with fellow shoppers and trying out the latest products in a showroom setting. One senior executive from a large state-owned developer has gone so far as to suggest, “Perhaps in the future, the word "shopping" could be removed from the name “shopping mall,” as people will come to the malls for socializing, for fun, for entertainment—not necessarily for shopping.”

Loyalty programs, which reward in-store customers with points and rebates, are also being embraced as ways to get shoppers to buy in malls, rather than online. Examples include Capitaland’s Capitstar initiative , a multi-store, multi-mall cardless reward program rolled out across Asia.

Surviving and thriving in the face of increased retail competition may depend on taking a cue from the hospitality sector. This requires acknowledging that customers shop not merely for a product but for a distinct and branded experience. Just as the best hotels create loyalty with a unique style and service offering evident from the very first guest interaction, so must progressive malls better define and deliver a branded experience that transcends any one store. In this respect, international developers such as the Kerry Group and Sun Hung Kai are more quickly moving to incorporate a hospitality element to their property management approach. Concierge-like services and customer experience-focused training for every customer interaction point make their properties preferred venues. As noted by a major high-end mall developer based in Hong Kong, “You need to have people to come to spend time in the mall. It’s not so much about just the transactional experience.”

Data makes the difference

Yet, these steps alone may do little to mitigate the power and advantages of the disruptors. Ultimately, data—not dining options or bonus points—will make the difference.

Brick-and-mortar-first retailers have traditionally lagged far behind online counterparts when it comes to capturing and applying consumer information to create personalized and streamlined shopping experiences. But progressive retailers are quickly leveling up. The A.S. Watson group, which boasts more than 13,000 health and beauty stores across Asia and Europe, recently committed $70 million to integrate an enterprise data platform into its operations. The system provides unified customer data across the organization and uses machine learning to process big data and enhance customer experiences.

Creative partnerships to share data and technology with online players can also yield results … at least, in theory. Problems arise because of the asymmetrical nature of most relationships: e-commerce giants, armed with resources and data, often hold all the cards. This can leave traditional retailers in a vulnerable position; unable, unwilling or too cautious to partner. As one high-end mall developer explained, “Of course, they [Alibaba] will always promise they will share back something else, but in the end maybe they won’t do it.”

A large hypermarket chain in China, for instance, was recently approached by Alibaba about a data-sharing scheme. Alibaba offered to provide detailed buying behavior about customers in a 5-kilometer radius of a planned hypermarket—everything from gender to seasonal preferences. In exchange, the hypermarket was asked to share aspects of its own customer database. It declined the offer, because the CEO couldn’t assess whether what it was giving up was worth what it would get.

Alibaba is already showing the real potential of this kind of online-offline hybrid with HEMA, the new Alibaba-backed grocery store, which already has nearly 10 locations in Shanghai and Beijing. Inside, shoppers find a carefully curated selection of 3,000 products from 100 countries, with an emphasis on high-end dining. Consumers can order online through their mobile app and get delivery within 30 minutes, within a 5-kilometer radius. Or, in a true expression of the O2O vision, they can shop in-store. Digital price tags are updated in real time, and shoppers can scan bar codes, pay via the HEMA app and have purchases delivered for free. To emphasize the “experiential” element, HEMA stores also organize special customer events and even offer a dedicated “food booth” zone where shoppers can have their groceries cooked for them.

Meanwhile, detailed shopping behavior , on everything from purchases to movement around the store, is captured via the mobile app. This data gold may be even more valuable than traditional performance indicators like value per order. By bringing online technology for the collection and application of big data into the offline world, Alibaba can ultimately simplify and personalize the shopping experience—creating a competitive edge over traditional retailers which will only intensify.

Leadership in the retail revolution

The growth of e-commerce has already jolted some players out of complacency. Progressive retailers are recruiting leaders boasting digital savviness, breadth of exposure, openness to new ideas and higher strategic orientation. At Egon Zehnder, we believe that the most important factor in nurturing and retaining digital talent is organizational culture. Companies and their leaders should consciously build cultures that encourage experimentation and learning, speed and adaptability.

In a traditional offline business, shaping a digitally-ready culture is no small task. It requires customer focus, openness, collaboration, constant learning and the willingness to “fail fast”. It also requires executives to accept both latent and visible threats, even if they cause profound discomfort. This digital talent must be able to question and debate the company’s business model and empower consideration of creative ways to co-create and cooperate with pure-play technology players.

Players who can fully integrate this bottom-up digital ethos—using the right technology in the hands of the right leadership—will thrive in the years ahead. By contrast, the great many players in the retail ecosystem who stick to business as usual may find themselves increasingly disintermediated. A mere five years after Wang Jianlin placed his famous bet on China’s retail future, it turns out the real battle isn’t between online and brick-and-mortar at all. Instead, it’s between old retail and New Retail. And this time around, the luck of Wang—and the legacy retail model he embodies—may be running out.