手里还有不少好东西，苹果对未来

不久前，苹果公司公布，过去两个季度中第二次出现硬件销量下滑。看到iPhone、iPad和Mac电脑销售额全面下降，大家可能会认为苹果或许陷入了恐慌。实际情况绝非如此。尽管硬件销售额减少，但硬件和服务共同让苹果拿出了强劲的季度业绩，实现收入420亿美元，净利润78亿美元。同时，该公司还有近2500亿美元现金，可用于研发、产品和公司收购以及其他资本支出项目。

不过，iPhone销售额连续第二个季度下降让人担心。要注意的一点是，在过去的这个季度中，所有厂商的个人电脑、平板电脑和智能手机销售额均出现了滑坡。但金融和行业分析师对iPhone销售额的下降非常关注。

iPhone仍是苹果的最大收入来源。该公司2016财年第三季度收入为424亿美元，其中240亿来自iPhone。令人惊奇的是，服务成为第二大收入来源，实现销售额近60亿美元，上升了19%。接下来是Mac电脑和iPad，收入分别为52亿和49亿美元。其他产品（包括Apple TV和Apple Watch）实现收入22亿美元。苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在最近的两次业绩发布电话会议上都着重指出了Apple Services在苹果总收入中的作用，并将这项业务称为苹果的持续增长引擎。

上季度，服务占苹果总收入的14%，高于一年前的10%。iPhone一直是苹果唯一的主导型产品，约占收入的三分之二（12个月来，服务实现收入230亿美元，仅上季度就带来收入60亿）。如今，服务已占销售额的很大一部分。库克对分析师表示，他预计服务业务“明年的规模将达到《财富》100强公司的水平”。

许多观察人士都认为iPhone的销售额已经见顶。过去两个季度iPhone销售额均告下跌，而且外界也不再像过去那样频繁上调iPhone销售额预期。我不知道真实情况是否如此。虽然传闻称今年秋季亮相的新iPhone在设计上并无巨大创新，但大家仍可期待的是，它会有更好的屏幕、更好的摄像头、更快的处理器以及可能更多的内存。同时，大家甚至有可能惊讶地发现，新iPhone具备几个现有型号没有的新功能。如果这些新功能有吸引力，数百万电信服务协议到期的消费者也许会打算升级自己的手机。不过，大量小道消息称苹果希望等到2017年秋季，也就是iPhone问世10周年之际再推出全新产品。如果是这样的话，这款全新设计的产品就有可能像某些人说的那样再次为iPhone的增长带来一个“超级周期”。

两年前推出iPhone 6时苹果就经历了一个超级周期。之前的六年里，苹果坚持采用3.5英寸和4英寸屏幕， 5英寸和5.5英寸屏幕的iPhone最终问世后，该产品的销售和需求直线上升。iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus已经上市整整两年。而在2015年第四季度，iPhone发货量达到7400万部，给苹果带来了创纪录的利润以及创纪录的销量。

无论能否开启新的超级周期，苹果都会继续改进iPhone，这一点毫无疑问。每年，数百万新老用户都会购买iPhone，从而扩大苹果的整个用户群——这个群体有可能使用苹果正在增长的服务业务。同时，还有一个因素也有利于苹果的未来。

每天，人们都会越来越多地使用iPhone，他们使用苹果app和服务的时间也在延长。苹果对未来持乐观态度而且知道自己的服务业务绝对会增长，这就是原因之一。苹果知道，只要用了iPhone，人们就会被苹果的app和服务生态系统牢牢拴住。

如今，iPhone已售出逾10亿部，iPad和Mac电脑也有数亿用户。有了如此巨大的业务空间，有了被苹果生态系统拴住的消费者以及相互协作的业务，人们就更有可能购买更多苹果提供的服务。

此外，其他产品也有可能帮苹果实现增长，并且提高它的硬件和服务业绩。Apple TV仍在改进之中，Apple Watch也是如此。另外还有传闻中的汽车项目。库克还表示，苹果的许多新产品甚至还不曾有人写到过。苹果公司没有理由恐慌，相反，今后五年它会表现的相当稳定，甚至会再次实现迅猛增长。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：詹妮

Apple last week reported the second decline in hardware unit sales in the last two quarters. With sales down on iPhones, iPads and Macs, you would think that Apple might be in a panic. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Even with that decline in hardware sales, with combined hardware and services Apple  still posted a strong quarter, with $42 billion in revenue and $7.8 billion in new income. It also has close to $250 billion in the bank for use on R&D, company and product acquisitions and other capital expenditures.

But the fact that iPhone sales were down for two quarters in a row is cause for concern. Keep in mind sales of PCs, tablets and smartphones were down for everybody in this last quarter. Still, Apple’s lower iPhone sales are being watched by financial and industry analysts very closely.

The iPhone is still Apple’s biggest source of revenue, making up $24 billion of the $42.4 billion for the third fiscal 2016 quarter. But amazingly, services has nabbed second place, rising 19% to nearly $6 billion in sales, followed by Mac computers at $5.2 billion, the iPad at $4.9 billion and “other” (which includes Apple TV and the Apple Watch) at $2.2 billion. In the last two earnings calls, Apple CEO Tim Cook put a major emphasis on the role of Apple Services in Apple’s overall revenue, saying that Services continue to be a growth engine for the firm.

Services in the latest quarter represented 14% of Apple’s total revenue, up from 10% a year ago. This has been a company dominated by one product—the iPhone—which has represented about two-thirds of revenues. (In the last 12 months, Services have generated $23 billion; Apple made $6 billion in revenue just this last quarter.) But now Services is such a huge chunk of sales, Cook told analysts that he expects the division to “be the size of a Fortune 100 company next year.”

Many observers have suggested that iPhone sales have peaked. Sales for iPhones have fallen in the last two quarters and people are not upgrading as frequently as in the past. I am not sure that is true. While rumors suggest that the new iPhone coming out this fall may not have a significant new design, you can still expect it to have a better screen, better camera, faster processor and possibly more memory and we could even be surprised to see a couple of new features that are not in current models. Also, there are millions whose current carrier contracts expire and may still want to upgrade if this new iPhone has the kind of new features that are a draw. However, there is a lot of scuttlebutt about Apple wanting to wait until the fall of 2017 to launch a completely new iPhone design that would mark the 10th anniversary of the iPhone. If so, a completely new design of the iPhone could drive what some are calling a “super cycle” of iPhone growth again.

Apple last saw a super cycle when it introduced the iPhone 6 two years ago. After keeping screen sizes around 3.5 inches and 4 inches for 6 years, Apple finally introduced an iPhone in 5 inch and 5.5-inch form factors, and sales and demand for iPhones skyrocketed. By the end of the second full year of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus being on the market, that holiday quarter of 2015 saw Apple shipping 74 million iPhones which gave the company record profits as well as record unit sales.

Regardless of whether Apple can spur a new super cycle or not, there is no doubt that Apple will continue to advance the iPhone. Each year millions of current and new users will still buy iPhones, adding to the overall base of users who can tap into Apple’s growing services business. But there is one other factor that also bodes well for Apple’s future.

People are also using iPhones more and more each day and staying longer when using Apple’s apps and services. This is one of the reasons Apple is bullish on the future and knows that the services business will only grow. It knows that once you have an iPhone you become hooked on Apple’s ecosystem of apps and services.

Apple has now sold over 1 billion iPhones and has hundreds of millions of users of iPads and Macs. With a universe that large, when people are tied to an Apple ecosystem where everything works together, they are more likely to buy more things that are part of Apple’s Services offerings.

Apple also has other products that could still help it grow as well as help boost its hardware and services earnings. Apple TV is still a work in progress, as is the Apple Watch. There’s also the rumored car project. Add to that the fact that Cook says there are many new products in the pipeline that people have not even written about, and you have an Apple that has reason not be in a panic, but rather is looking at quite steady if not spectacular new growth in the next five years.