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商业 - 科技

苹果业绩疲软压给库克五大难题

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2016年01月27日

苹果面临的大问题,并不是2016年第一季度能否出货5700万台或6000万台iPhone,而是下面几个涉及到业务结构及公司战略的问题。

近日,苹果公司股票仅仅获得了“持有”评级,股价也下探到115美元的华尔街最低预测价格。这一评估来自BGC公司的分析师柯林•吉利斯对。他显然对苹果的股票走势不太看好。

事实上,还有很多分析师都在纠结于iPhone销量可能会下降,但柯林•吉利斯认为这种担忧是“过于咬牙切齿了”,他觉得这种担忧可能早就体现在了股价走势里。而他还有更重要的观点要抛出。

1月25日,他在给客户的信中写道:“苹果面临的大问题,并不是2016年第一季度能否出货5700万台或6000万台iPhone,而是下面几个问题。”

1.“苹果的视频流媒体内容战略在哪?”想想看吧,差不多一年以前,我们就听说苹果的流媒体电视服务要来了。在哪呢?

2.“在comScore应用排行榜的前十五名中,苹果只占了两个应用,而谷歌占了六个,苹果是否有兴趣改变这种现状?”苹果的这两个应用分别是“苹果音乐”和“苹果地图”,都是基础性应用。

3.“苹果打算如何提高苹果支付的使用量,让它产生更大的经济效益?”比如,苹果应该如何利用它所收集到的有关消费者购买行为数据?

4.“为什么苹果的iAd广告平台如此不景气?”鉴于此,苹果2016年1月已经宣布,将于2016年6月30日关掉iAd应用网络。

5.“苹果将手机定价模式转变为订购模式,其效果如何?”究竟会有多少消费者选择苹果的iPhone升级计划?

吉利斯表示,除非苹果产生“紧迫感”,积极朝着一家服务型公司转型,以构建显著的循环收益,否则,市场还将继续将它当作一家硬件公司。而这显然是件坏事。

由于上文提到的“咬牙切齿”的情绪,苹果股价1跃5日当天报收于99.44美元,低于历史最高点26%。

吉利斯在当天的邮件开头,还写下了几行辛辣的打油诗:

苹果股票

疲软不振

跑输大盘

自有缘故

(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

With a “hold” rating on the stock and lowest price target ($115) on Wall Street, BGC analyst Colin Gillis is hardly an Apple bull.

But he dismisses the obsession among fellow analysts about a possible decline in iPhone sales as “so much gnashing of teeth” and thinks their concerns may already be priced into the stock. That’s because he has bigger fish to fry.

“The big issue for Apple,” he wrote in a note to clients Monday, “is not whether Apple ships 57 or 60 million iPhones in the March quarter, it’s the following:

“Where is Apple’s video streaming content strategy?” [It’s been nearly a year since we first read that the arrival of Apple’s streaming TV service was imminent.]

“Does Apple have any interest in changing the fact they only have two apps ranked in the comScore top 15, and Google has six?” [The two apps that made the cut were Apple Music and Apple Maps.]

“How does Apple plan, if at all, to move up the stack in Apple Pay and capture more of the economics?” [i.e., take advantage of all the data it can collect about consumer buying habits.]

“Why did iAd fall so flat?” [Apple announced in January that it’s shutting down its iAp app network as of June 30.]

“How are efforts to turn the phone pricing into a subscription model?” [Exactly how many customers are opting for Apple’s iPhone Upgrade Program?]

Unless Apple develops a “sense of urgency” about transforming itself into a service company—one that builds up serious recurring revenues—the market, Gillis says, will continue to value it as a hardware company. Which is apparently a bad thing.

Apple’s share pricehas been chewed up by the aforementioned gnashing of teeth and at Monday’s close ($99.44) was trading 26% below its all time high.

Gillis tops Monday’s note with one of his tart haikus:

There is a reason,

Apple trades

at a discount,

to the broad market.

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