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商业 - 工业和采矿

矿业巨头嘉能可向大宗商品价格暴跌低头

Geoffrey Smith 2015年09月09日

因中国经济放缓,全球大宗商品价格暴跌,铜价已跌至六年来的最低点,瑞士矿业及大宗商品巨头嘉能可也撑不住了。它宣布将发行新股融资25亿美元,并转让数十亿美元资产,以及停产两座非洲铜矿。

    嘉能可本周一(9月7日)表示,为扭转股价下跌60%的颓势,该公司将通过发行新股融资25亿美元,而且至少在明年年中以前不会分红;同时,它将转让数十亿美元资产,并让亏损矿山暂时停产。此外,嘉能可还将在明年底前把债务削减约三分之一,从300亿美元降至200亿美元。

    不到一个月前,投资者指出嘉能可的最新举措不足以应付大宗商品价格急剧下跌的局面,随后该公司祭出新招。三周前公布中期业绩至今,嘉能可的股价已下跌30%。不过,本周一午后它在伦敦市场反弹7.3%,成为涨幅最高的个股。

    近年来,嘉能可公司高层一直能获得数十亿美元的分红;如今,他们将把其中约5.5亿美元资金重新注入该公司,用于认购新股,在高达25亿美元新股发行额中占22%。剩余新股将由花旗集团和摩根士丹利负责承销。

    同时,首席执行官伊万•格拉森伯格及其同僚至少必须放弃明年年中以前的分红。格拉森伯格表示,此举将为嘉能可节省24亿美元现金。

    受影响的不光是最高层。该公司设在刚果和赞比亚的两座铜矿将停产一年半,直到完成升级改造,从而将现金成本降低三分之一左右。

    铜价已跌至六年来的最低点,原因是外界下调了今后中国的经济增长预期。纽约期铜目前价格约为每磅2.35美元,与全球金融危机后每磅4.48美元的最高点相比几乎回落了一半。嘉能可拟停产的两座铜矿分属Katanga和Mopani矿业公司,目前的现金成本都超过每磅2.50美元。巴克莱分析师估算,按目前价格计算,到明年底,两座矿山停产将为嘉能可节省成本5.60亿美元。

    巴克莱在发给客户的报告中指出:“管理层采取了重大而且可行的措施。”

    嘉能可采取上述举措很大程度上是迫于国际评级机构的压力,后者一直威胁称,如果该公司不进一步采取措施来改善资产负债情况,就将其评级降至“垃圾级”边缘。鉴于负债沉重,嘉能可也许几乎已经无力再承担更多偿债义务。

    穆迪上个月表示,嘉能可需要付出更多努力,以便维持“Baa2”的长期债务评级;标普则将该公司“BBB”评级的展望从“稳定”下调至“负面”。

    嘉能可采取的措施让投资者感到高兴,他们认为减产有望使低迷的全球市场再次达到平衡,大宗商品价格以及部分跌幅较深的矿业股因而上扬。

    然而,作为大宗商品大蓝筹,嘉能可暂停分红对其他矿业股的影响有好有坏,原因是此举让人们更加担心,必和必拓以及力拓等分红表现一直很可靠的公司可能被迫采取类似行动。在大宗商品领域,外界对此事的解读最不利于石油公司,原因是没有迹象表明原油市场将重新实现供需平衡。英国石油和壳牌石油的股价均滑落至多年低点附近。(财富中文网)

    译者:Charlie

    校对:詹妮

    The company said Monday it will raise $2.5 billion in new equity, stop dividend payments until at least the middle of next year, sell billions of dollars’ worth of assets and suspend production at loss-making mines, in an effort to reverse a 60% drop in its share price. It will also cut net debt by around a third to $20 billion from $30 billion by the end of next year.

    The measures come less than a month after investors said Glencore’s latest try at adjusting to a world of sharply lower commodity prices wasn’t enough. Its shares had fallen 30% since unveiling its half-year results three weeks ago, but rebounded 7.3% by early afternoon in London Monday, making it the best performer in the London market.

    Glencore’s senior management, who have been able to take billions out of the company in dividends in recent years, will re-inject around $550 million of that money, subscribing to 22% of a proposed stock offering of up to $2.5 billion. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are underwriting the rest.

    At the same time, CEO Ivan Glasenberg and his cohorts will have to do without dividends at least until the middle of 2016–a move Glencore says will conserve $2.4 billion of cash.

    It won’t be just the top brass that suffers: Glencore will also stop operations at two copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia for 18 months, until it completes upgrades that will cut their cash costs by around a third.

    Copper prices have slumped to their lowest in six years as the world has revised down its estimates of future growth in China. New York copper futures currently trade around $2.35 a pound, barely half their post-crisis peak of $4.48/lb. The two African mines in question, Katanga and Mopani, have cash costs over $2.50/lb at present. Analysts at Barclays said shutting them would save $560 million by the end of next year, if prices stay where they are.

    “These are big and achievable steps by management,” Barclays said in a note to clients.

    To a large degree, Glencore’s actions were dictated by the international ratings agencies, who have been threatening to cut their rating to the verge of “junk” if it didn’t do more to shore up its balance sheet. Given the scale of Glencore’s debts, it could hardly afford a bigger bill to service them.

    Moody’s said last month the company needed to do more to support the Baa2 rating it had on Glencore’s long-term debt, while Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on its BBB rating to negative from stable.

    Glencore’s moves lifted both commodity prices and the share prices of some of the more battered miners, as investors cheered the prospect of supply being cut to rebalance weak global markets.

    But the sight of a major commodities blue-chip axing its dividend had a mixed effect on some companies in the peer group, amplifying fears that traditionally dependable dividend payers like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto plc could be forced to follow suit. The read-across was the worst for companies operating in the commodity where there’s no sign of the market coming back into balance: crude oil. Shares in both BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc fell to levels close to multi-year lows.

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