新一代iPhone如何拯救苹果

    苹果公司预计将于9月9日发布最新款手机iPhone 6s（或iPhone 7），在过去一周经历股价震荡的投资者们理应松一口气。尽管首席执行官蒂姆•库克信誓旦旦地声称，中国的经济困境不会对这家科技巨头的销量造成负面影响，但就在几周前，苹果股价依然低于115美元，即便是在上周四股市强劲反弹之后依然如此，远低于52周以来的最高点134.54美元。

    至少，来自市场的某些惩罚似乎就是专门冲着苹果来的。投资者有许多理由为这家公司担心，比如中国智能手机厂商的低价竞争，Apple Music和Apple Pay的吸引力十分有限，等等。

    有鉴于此，投资者能否重拾信心，新款iPhone的表现至关重要。基于以下几个原因，它很可能会不负所望。

    这款手机拥有远超前几代产品的1200万像素摄像头、4K视频录制功能、更快的处理速度、更长的电池续航时间（据Tech Insider引用的多项调研显示，用户认为这一点极为重要）、类似Apple Watch和安卓手机的动态墙纸。这款手机能识别较差的Wi-Fi网络信号，并在这类环境中自动切换至蜂窝网络。这代手机的Wi-Fi通话功能还支持AT&T的网络，此前仅限于T-Mobile。

    不过该手机最重要的新特色还是压感触控（force touch），这项技术能让设备识别用户的轻度和重度触屏，并为它们分配不同的功能。它目前已经在Apple Watch和Macbook上实现了。一旦该技术应用于新款iPhone上，就可能成为一项王牌特色，使其在操作简便性和功能实用性方面远远甩开前几代产品。

    增强用户体验一直是苹果成功的不二法门，而新款机型和压感触控特色就能做到这一点。压感触控这项技术足够新颖，能让用户有动力替换现有机型，在苹果的重要市场中国，这是提高销量的一大因素。压感触控还能帮助苹果维持其在亚洲市场的地位，据说中国的竞争对手华为即将在智能手机上推出类似功能。

    另一个因素也可能成为苹果一大利好。诚然，在iPhone 6大获成功之后，苹果公司的业绩或许很难再上一层楼。不过，无线网络运营商提供的新设备分期付款计划也许会鼓励用户购买新iPhone。越来越多的AT&T和威瑞森的顾客都开始选择这类计划。这些计划不会把他们束缚在两年的合约中，可以让他们尽早升级手机。

    斯坦福•伯恩斯坦公司分析师托尼•萨克纳西预计，大约有1490万美国用户可以在今年年底前升级手机。而据《华尔街日报》所述，去年秋天iPhone 6发布时，这一数值是530万。

    最后，尽管苹果在全球智能手机销量上仍然不及三星，后者的销量在2015年第二季度有所下滑。研究公司高德纳的数据显示，苹果的市场占有率从去年的12.2%上升到14.6%，而三星从26.2%下降到21.5%。在中国，苹果的iPhone销量上季度大涨68%，达到1190万部。这充分证明，尽管中国市场充满挑战，苹果依然能够披荆斩棘，高歌猛进。高德纳研究总监安舒尔•古普塔表示：“苹果是一个大品牌，人们真的很认同它的地位。这也是一个让许多人梦寐以求的品牌，很多中国顾客都希望有朝一日能拥有一部iPhone。”

    不过这里也要提个醒。苹果的新产品总是被吹得天花乱坠，但这些预言并不是总能实现。最终发布的产品究竟有多好，以及有多少人愿意买单，还需拭目以待。此外，就想上个季度一样，分析师的预计也可能过高，华尔街最终可能以失望告终。

    尽管如此，由于投资者不断对苹果股价施压，新款iPhone的重要性不言而喻，我们可以肯定苹果会严肃对待这次特别的发布会。9月9日的确是令人期待的一天。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    Apple is expected to unveil its latest device, the iPhone 6s (or 7), on September 9 in what should be a sigh of relief for investors, who have had a tough ride this week. Despite CEO Tim Cook’s assurance that China’s economic difficulties should not adversely impact the tech giant’s sales, the company’s stock is still trading below its $115 a share level just a few weeks ago, even after the robust market rally on Thursday, and far below its 52-week high of $134.54 a share.

    At least some of the market punishment seems unique to Apple. Investors are worried about the company for many reasons, including competition from low-cost Chinese smartphone makers and only modest traction for Apple Music and Apple Pay.

    Which is why the new iPhone is crucial for Apple to restore investors’ confidence, and there’s a good chance it will for several reasons.

    The phone will have a 12 megapixel camera, a big increase from previous versions; 4k video recording; faster processing speed; longer battery life, which many users consider to be an extremely important feature, according to multiple studies cited by Tech Insider; animated wallpaper like the Apple Watch and Android phones; the ability to detect when a Wi-Fi network is weak and automatically switch to cellular; and Wi-Fi calling over AT&T, previously limited to T-Mobile.

    But what’s expected to be the most important new feature of all: force touch, a technology that enables a device to distinguish between light and strong taps by a user and assign different functions to them, as it currently does on the Apple Watch and MacBooks. Applied to the iPhone, this could potentially be the killer feature that solidly differentiates the new iPhone from its predecessors by enhancing ease-of-use and utility.

    An improvement to the user experience has always been at the heart of Apple’s success with new models and the force touch feature can provide this. Force touch is also new enough to encourage buyers to replace their existing phones, a major driver of sales in in China, one of Apple’s key markets. Force Touch should also help Apple maintain its position in the Asian market, where competitor Huawei is reportedly introducing a similar feature to its smartphones.

    Another factor working in Apple’s favor is that while the company may have a hard time outdoing its blockbuster sales for the iPhone 6, new equipment installment plans from wireless carriers might encourage adoption for the new iPhone by consumers. An increasing percentage of AT&T and Verizon customers have been opting for these plans, which don’t tie them down to two-year contracts and allow them to upgrade early.

    Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates that about 14.9 million U.S. customers will be eligible for upgrades at the end of this year, compared to 5.3 million last fall when the iPhone 6 launched, according to The Wall Street Journal.

    Finally, even though Apple continues to trail Samsung in terms of worldwide smartphone sales, which fell in the second quarter of 2015, Apple’s market share rose to 14.6% from 12.2% a year ago, while Samsung’s declined to 21.9% from 26.2%, according to research firm Gartner. In China, too, Apple’s iPhone sales grew by 68% last quarter to 11.9 million units, indicating that the company is making inroads in that market despite its challenges. “It’s a big brand and people really associate that with their status and it’s kind of an aspirational brand so many of the consumers in China expect to own an iPhone at some point of time,” says Gartner research director Anshul Gupta.

    Some words of caution here. Apple’s new product launches are always surrounded by hype and predictions that don’t always come true. It remains to be seen how good the final product will be and, of course, how many people will buy it. In addition, analyst expectations could be inflated, as they were last quarter, setting Apple up to disappoint Wall Street even with a great smartphone.

    Nonetheless, given the importance of the new iPhone as investors add pressure on Apple’s stock, it’s a safe bet that the company is going take this particular launch very seriously. Stay tuned for September 9th.