马克•安德森：2015年可能发生的科技和商业大事件

    没人能像马克•安德森那样精准地洞见未来。他对经济与科技交叉领域的预言一直受到硅谷密切关注。他既能放眼全球，预判即将横空出世的“下一个大事件”和热点地区，又能够洞察哪些热门产品和国家行将过气。由安德森领衔的“战略新闻服务”公司（Strategic News Service），是一家专为行业领袖和风险投资家服务的通讯出版商。该公司宣称拥有众多大牌读者，比如戴尔公司首席执行官迈克尔•戴尔、特斯拉公司首席执行官埃伦•穆斯克和微软创始人比尔•盖茨。最近，在旧金山的一个聚会上，马克•安德森就2015年的科技走势发表了他的预言。主要观点如下：

    技术预言：

    • 像比特币这样的数字货币将层出不穷，同时也会走入绝境。货币总是需要一个国家的经济实力和军事力量作保障才能赢得人们的信任。

    • “网络中立性”，即互联网服务供应商和政府应平等对待所有数据这一理念，将继续存活。

    • 模式识别将成为大数据的真正目标。将有大批新工具和芯片被开发出来，让人们收集数据，识别此前无法洞察的趋势，从而引发一场计算革命。

    • 在多家公司近期接连遭受黑客攻击后，网络安全将会成为首席执行官们关注的头等大事。由于缺乏保护的网络系统可能造成的损失，远远超过打造一个安全网络所需的成本，各大公司将不再削减一紧再紧的安全开支，转而加大投资。

    • 虚拟现实领域将仍由娱乐业主导。尽管Facebook公司斥资20亿美元收购了Oculus公司，但能让人们沉浸于3D世界的头戴式装备离日常生活仍远。

    • 亚马逊公司前景不妙。由于在电子书定价问题上与Hachette出版集团争执不下，再加上前途未卜的无人机服务和遭遇惨败的Fire手机业务，这家电商巨头很可能遭受巨额亏损。

    • 联网家电（比如一台可以让你发微博的冰箱）将进入市场，但依然不会成为主流。人们真正想要的不过是低廉的能源成本，一大堆电视屏幕和一个遥控器。在许多人看来，让一些不会说话的设备相互交流太复杂，似乎没有传统家电那么可靠。

    • 苹果公司的数字支付服务Apple Pay将大获成功，在市场上确立领导地位。

    • 计算机加密将依然是主流趋势。

    • 个人保健、健身和生活方式设备将会融合，市场上将会涌现大量手表和健身腕带。智能服装（设想一下：和互联网相连、能监测血流量的袜子）由于其价格和可靠性问题，仍将属于小众产品。

    No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:

    Tech predictions:

    • Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust.

    • Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive.

    • Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing.

    • Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones.

    • Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets.

    • Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way.

    • Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things.

    • Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market.

    • Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend.

    • Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency.