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商业 - 金融

沪港通缓慢启动

Scott Cendrowski 2014年11月21日

中国大陆股市与外界之间的大门已经打开,尽管媒体上炒得一片火热,但至今为止实际交易并不算活跃。

    上周,沪港通高调落地。这终结了中国长期以来一个残酷的不公平现象:中国大陆的投资者无法购买像百度、阿里巴巴和腾讯(三者合称为“BAT”)等中国一流企业的股票。

    中国对出境资金的严格限制,使得个人投资者(或其共同基金经理)无法购买在纽约上市的阿里巴巴等海外股票。同理,直到上周,外国资产管理公司除非通过极为繁琐的许可程序,否则也无法购买中国大陆的股票。

    许多中国企业都选择在香港上市。腾讯、中国移动以及联想集团都属于此前在港上市、新近允许大陆投资者投资的企业。不过,在上周三,中国投资者对于投资中国一流企业似乎兴趣不大。

    沪港通这项中国股市的重大改革开锣前三天,资金主要是北上,由香港国际投资者投入中国大陆股市。上周三结束时,北上资金总量达到每日限额的20%,而南下资金总量,即大陆投资者投入香港股市的资金,仅为每日限额的2.5%。上周一和周二,南下资金量也明显处于低位。

    如今看来,那些预测南下和北上资金流都将汹涌的人士,是过于乐观了。截止上周三,腾讯已经连续三日下跌,自上周一以来在香港股市下跌了5.5%。此前,腾讯股价连日上涨,部分是因为市场预期该股会受到大陆投资者的青睐。同样,由于预期的资金流入并未出现,联想和中国移动的股票也遭到抛售。

    没有出现预期的上涨,其原因可以归结为万事开头难。比如,目前尚不完全清楚,香港和上海的税制差异将如何调和,尽管中国政府上周宣布,将暂时免除部分资本所得税。此外,中国投资者必须费劲的啃完新法规,而且许多在香港上市的公司,同时也有在上海上市。

    另外,还有一个可能的原因是,中国经济可能无法再实现股市早就习以为常的高速增长。

    但是,使人人都有机会投资一流的中国上市公司,不论其是在中国大陆还是香港上市,都是一个令人兴奋的变化。而且,正如记者阳歌(Doug Young)在其关注中国股票的博客中所写,“如果沪港通获得成功,阿里巴巴和百度等在纽约上市的公司,甚至可能考虑在香港进行二次上市。”

    届时,或许中国投资者可以同美国电视台评论员以及华尔街人士一样,对于阿里巴巴股价的每日波动喋喋不休。(财富中文网)

    译者:Hunter

    审:李翔

    The new stock market link between Shanghai and Hong Kong that opened this week to big fanfare corrected what has long been a cruel unfairness in China: that shares of its best companies, such as Baidu Inc, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings (known as the collective BAT) can’t be bought by Chinese mainland investors.

    China’s strict outbound money rules prevent mom and pop investors (or their mutual fund managers) from buying overseas stocks such as Alibaba, which is listed in New York. By the same token, foreign asset managers couldn’t, until this week, buy mainland Chinese stocks except through a hugely cumbersome permissioning process.

    Hong Kong is a popular listing for many Chinese companies, where Tencent, China Mobile, and Lenovo Group are among those listed there and newly eligible for mainland investors. But by Wednesday, the Chinese showed little interest in owning their national champions.

    The money flows through the first three days of China’s meaningful stock market reform mostly went northbound from Hong Kong’s international investors into mainland China. At the end of Wednesday, northbound investments represented 20% of the daily cap on flows; southbound flows, from mainland investors to Hong Kong, were just 2.5% of the daily cap. Similar low levels of southbound money were evident on Monday and Tuesday.

    All those anticipating a flood of money in both directions were left looking a bit Pollyannish. Tencent capped its third straight day of losses today, falling 5.5% in Hong Kong since Monday after rising for days, partly in anticipation of the link to mainland investors; Lenovo and China Mobile similarly sold off when anticipated money flows never came.

    The explanations for the rise that never came might boil down to teething troubles. It’s still not entirely clear, for instance, how the differing tax regimes in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be reconciled–despite Beijing’s announcement last week that it would temporarily exempt some taxation of capital gains. Also, Chinese investors have to wade through new regulations and many of the Hong Kong stocks are listed in Shanghai too.

    It might also have something to do with the fact that China’s economy may no longer be able to deliver the kind of growth that equity markets have long taken for granted.

    But allowing everyone a chance to own the best of China’s listed companies, be they in mainland China or Hong Kong, is an exciting change and “a successful connection could even prompt existing New York-listed companies like Alibaba and Baidu to consider secondary listings in Hong Kong,” wrote Doug Young on his blog following Chinese stocks.

    Maybe then, Chinese investors could join the American TV talking heads and Wall Streeters obsessing over BABA’s daily swings.

    I'd like to get you on a through train to Hong Kong...but not too desperately.

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