中国6月份银行新增贷款放量增长驱散经济放缓愁云

    中国经济放缓现在看起来似乎已经成了一件很遥远的往事，因为此前于周二发布的数据显示，中国6月份银行贷款出现了大幅增长。

    中国各家银行（它们的贷款很大程度上受政府政策影响）6月份新发放了1.08万亿元（1,740亿美元）贷款，较5月份增长了20%还多，大大高于9,550亿元的普遍预期。此外，一些更宽泛的反映经济体系中流动性的指标增速也远远快于预期。

    自从上一次经济危机以来，中国经济一直是全球经济增长最大的单一动力引擎。但由于中国正在努力革新经济模式，把重点更多地放到增加国内消费上来，同时对倚重投资出口行业的资源进行重新分配，中国经济增长势头最近几个月有些挣扎。今年一季度，中国经济增长率创下了两年来的最低水平。

    但是，中国总理李克强坚信，中国将实现今年经济增长7.5%的目标。而且，在中国政府网站周二发表的一份声明中，他重申了这个积极乐观的信息。

    与此同时，日本银行（Bank of Japan）也发布了相对看涨的日本经济前景。尽管日本银行小幅缩减了（截至2015年3月）当前财政年度的增长预期，从之前的1.1%下调到了1%，但这家银行的行长黑田东彦在一次新闻发布会上表示，日本经济需要借助更多经济刺激才能打赢长达20年的通缩抗击战的几率现在已经接近于零。

    “我不认为消费者通货膨胀率会跌到1%之下,”路透（Reuters）援引黑田东彦的话报道称。“价格上涨趋势正在扩大，而且预计还会继续扩大，使得消费者通货膨胀率向2%靠近。”

    这些前景看涨的好消息共同推动了亚洲股市周二的上涨行情。其中，日经225指数上涨0.6%，而香港和上海的基准指数分别上涨了0.5%和0.2%。

    但欧洲传来的好消息不多，因为德国经济的领先指标已经连续7个月下降。欧洲经济研究中心（ZEW）发布的德国7月份经济前景指数从5月份的29.4下降到了27.1，将将高于长期平均值24.7。ZEW评估德国当前经济状况的指数也从-27.7下降到了-31.5。

    ZEW负责人克莱门斯•福斯特表示，德国经济曾经历了生产和零售的双重“短暂下滑”。但他表示，中长期前景仍旧“积极乐观”。

    消息传来，德国DAX指数应声大幅下挫，截至周二美国东部时间0600下跌了0.4%。（财富中文网）

    China’s economic slowdown seemed more than ever a thing of the past, after data released Tuesday showed a sharp rise in bank lending in June.

    China’s banks–whose lending is heavily influenced by government policy, extended 1.08 trillion yuan ($174 billion) in new loans in the month, up over 20% from May and well above consensus forecast of CNY955 billion. Broader measures of liquidity in the economy also expanded far faster than expected.

    China’s economy, which has been the biggest single engine of growth for the world economy since the crisis, has faltered in recent months as the country struggles to reinvent its economic model, focusing more on raising domestic consumption and diverting resources away from investment-heavy export industries. Its growth rate in the first quarter was the slowest in two years.

    However, Premier Li Keqiang has insisted the country will meet its target of 7.5% growth this year andrepeated his upbeat message in a statement on the government’s website Tuesday.

    The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, also issued a relatively bullish update of its outlook for the economy. Although it shaved its growth forecast for the current financial year (ending in March 2015) to 1% from 1.1%, governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated at a press conference that the chance of the economy needing further stimulus to win its two-decade battle with deflation is now close to zero.

    “I don’t think there is a possibility that consumer inflation will fall below 1%,” Reuters quoted Kuroda as saying. “Price rises are broadening and are expected to continue broadening, allowing for consumer inflation to diverge towards 2%.”

    The combination of bright news drove Asian stock markets higher Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rising 0.6%, while the benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai rose by 0.5% and 0.2%.

    There was less good news out of Europe, however, as a leading indicator for the German economy fell for the seventh month in a row. The ZEW research institute’s index of expectations for the economy fell to 27.1 from 29.4 in May, barely above its long-term average of 24.7. ZEW’s index assessing current conditions in Germany also fell to -31.5 from -27.7.

    ZEW head Clemens Fuest said the economy had suffered a “dip” in both production and in retail, but said the medium-term outlook “remains positive.”

    The German DAX index fell sharply in reaction to the news and was 0.4% lower by 0600 EDT.