中俄博弈：天然气交易大单凸显主动权向中国转移

    另外需要注意的一点是，中俄两国在这笔交易中并不是处在平等的地位上。过去十年间，包括此次天然气供应协议在内，俄罗斯曾经三次在有需要的时候与中国达成数十亿美元的能源交易。2005年，中国国家开发银行（China Development Bank）与中国进出口银行（Export-Import Bank of China）成为俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）的最后贷款人，为这家俄罗斯国有石油公司提供60亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款，帮助它收购俄罗斯私有石油公司尤科斯（Yukos）的主要生产资产。

    四年后，中国国家开发银行向俄罗斯石油公司和俄罗斯国有管道运营商俄罗斯石油运输公司（Transneft）提供了250亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款。当时正值全球金融危机，石油价格暴跌，信贷紧缩，这两家俄罗斯公司都陷入困境。这几笔交易不仅加深了两国的能源关系，同时也意味着在这种关系中，主动权正在从俄罗斯向中国转移。

    不论到底哪一方做出了更多让步，在国内和国际舞台上，中国两国都把自己描绘成获胜者。这次的天然气交易预示着中俄两国的能源关系开始充分发挥潜力。2013年，俄罗斯是中国第四大原油供应国，未来将成为它南方邻邦重要的天然气进口来源。从长期来看，这份协议将分别给俄罗斯和中国带来更可靠的供应与需求保障。而从短期而言，天然气协议的主要好处表现在政治方面。俄罗斯可以获得中国这个强有力的盟友，而中国也获得了又一次机会，彰显出它在世界舞台日益扩大的经济与政治影响力。

    本文作者邓丽嘉是布鲁金斯学会约翰•L•桑顿中国研究中心研究员。她一直致力于研究中国公司的海外扩张、中国的能源和外交政策以及中国政府与企业的关系，之前曾在美国中央情报局担任能源分析师。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a $6 billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.

    Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth $25 billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.

    Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.

    Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.