虚拟现实技术真的是条大鱼吗？
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Facebook首席执行官马克•扎克伯格认为虚拟现实是“下一个平台”。为了证明自己所言非虚，Facebook近日以20亿美元天价收购了创业公司Oculus VR，在沉寂多年的虚拟现实界掀起惊涛骇浪。 Oculus位于加州门罗帕克市，此次收购无疑使这家公司成为三维数字虚拟技术领域的佼佼者。但喧嚣之后，我们不禁还是要问几个关键的问题：虚拟现实技术在Oculus公司21岁的首席执行官帕尔默•勒奇出生之前就已经诞生了，为什么一直发展到今天仍然没有成熟？从Facebook方面来看，扎克伯格对虚拟现实的格外高看是否正确？收购Oculus会成为他在收购方面的又一次滑铁卢吗？ 虚拟现实技术过去三十年停滞不前的主要原因有三个。时至今日，虚拟现实仍然是计算资源密集型技术，平常家用的PC机、手机和游戏机完全无法应对。所以，这项技术欠缺移动性。而且，这项技术本身发展也曾举步维艰，由于缺乏高分辨率显示技术和精确的头戴式追踪设备，虚拟现实技术难以创造栩栩如生的虚拟体验。 不过，近年来随着高性能微处理器的突破，移动宽带技术的爆炸式发展和移动传感技术的进步，虚拟现实技术正在大踏步前进。 斯坦福大学虚拟人类接触实验室（Virtual Human Interaction Lab）主任杰瑞米•拜伦森说：“就在两年前，虚拟现实技术还在以龟速前进。从技术角度而言，硬件设备的重量越来越轻，效果更逼真，造价更便宜。从软件角度而言，我们已跨过了转折点。” 那么，Oculus——或者规模比它大得多的竞争对手索尼（Sony）——为什么还不能确定什么时候推出可堪大用的虚拟现实平台？拜伦森称，部分原因在于性能和价格之间的权衡。 拜伦森说：“包括索尼和Oculus在内，几十家显示公司都在竞争，希望成为业界的标杆。”而扎克伯格收购Oculus的几周前曾与他碰面，他送了一本自己的大作《无限现实》给扎克伯格，这本书正是写给本科生和初学者的虚拟现实入门教材。拜伦森还补充说：“我认为虚拟现实有可能改变教育、预防医学，以及几乎所有能想到的领域。” 虚拟现实技术有无数应用——军事训练、医疗保健等等——但最直接的潜力在于价值千亿美元的游戏产业，玩家们十分乐意以新奇的方式体验游戏。 这也许是Facebook对Oculus感兴趣的最主要原因。作为一家社交网站，Facebook利用自己的平台在休闲游戏领域大获成功，同时还催生了数家大型游戏公司，星佳（Zynga）就是其中之一。难道扎克伯格认为虚拟现实是下一个大势所趋？ |
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg describes virtual reality as the "platform of tomorrow." To back that assertion up, his company in March bought the small firm Oculus VR for $2 billion, sparking a frenzy around VR that hasn't been seen in years. There's no arguing that the purchase puts the Menlo Park, Calif.-based company at the forefront of the technology, which digitally simulates a three-dimensional world. But several key questions remain despite the buzz over the deal: Why is it that, after being in development longer than Oculus's 21-year-old CEO Palmer Luckey has been alive, VR technology is still not ready for prime time? And on Facebook's (FB) part, is Zuckerberg even right in targeting VR as the next big technology to watch -- or is he just setting himself up for another disappointing purchase? There are three primary reasons for VR's arrested development over the past three decades. Until recently, virtual reality technology has always needed more computational power than was readily available on home PCs, mobile phones, and gaming consoles. For that same reason, it lacked mobility. And the technology itself has lagged somewhat, lacking sufficient resolution and head-tracking capabilities to create a truly convincing virtual experience. Technologists have largely overcome these obstacles in the last few years, thanks to faster microchips, an explosion in broadband infrastructure, and a proliferation in the use of sensors in mobile devices. "The technology has been moving at a crawl up until two years ago," says Jeremy Bailenson, director of Stanford University's Virtual Human Interaction Lab. "From a technological standpoint, the hardware is becoming lighter, more realistic, and cheaper. From a software standpoint, we have passed the tipping point." So why won't Oculus -- or Sony (SNE), its much larger competitor -- commit to a release date for a VR platform that is ready for prime time? The trade-off between performance and price may be partly to blame, Bailenson says. "There are dozens of display companies, including Sony and Oculus, who are racing to be the standard," he says. Bailenson says he met with Zuckerberg a few weeks before he bought Oculus and gave the billionaire a copy of his book Infinite Reality, a VR primer for undergraduates and novices. "I think VR has the potential to transform education, preventative medicine, and just about every domain imaginable," he adds. There are myriad applications for the technology -- military training, health care, etc. -- but the most immediate potential lies in the $100 billion video game industry, where consumers are welcoming of a novel, new way to experience titles. This is perhaps the strongest reason underscoring Facebook's interest in Oculus. The social company has seen great success in using its platform for simple gaming, and has given birth to several large companies -- Zynga (ZNGA) among them -- because of it. Does Zuckerberg think that VR is the next wave? |
