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商业 - 科技

分析称亚马逊平板电脑赔本赚吆喝

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月30日

与亚马逊相比,苹果在每台iPad上的毛利率高达30%甚至更高。

Kindle Fire 图片:亚马逊

    本周三,亚马逊(Amazon)正式发布平板电脑Kindle Fire。投资银行Piper Jaffray的基恩•明斯特在第一时间向客户发出报告称,Kindle Fire根本不是苹果(Apple)iPad的对手。不过,明斯特随后补充说,“它的竞争力确实出乎我们的意料。”

    明斯特认为Kindle Fire存在以下不足:

    • Kindle Fire的显示屏仅为7英寸,而iPad的为10英寸(两者之间的实际差距比数字显示出来的差距要大,7英寸屏的面积仅仅是iPad 10英寸屏的45%。)

    • Kindle Fire只有8GB存储空间,而iPad有16GB、32GB和64GB多种规格。

    • iPad有前后双摄像头并支持3G网络,这些功能Kindle Fire一项都不没有。

    明斯特表示,Kindle Fire的优势在于电影、音乐和网络浏览功能。他认为两家公司都在扬长避短。

    在我们看来,苹果致力于整合优秀的硬件和软件,利用供给方面的规模效应来提供售价达499美元的高端平板电脑。而亚马逊似乎意在提供拥有优质内容的产品,它将自己可供出售的海量内容资本与云服务产品相结合,以提供世界一流的移动数字产品。苹果在iPad硬件上的毛利率超过30%,但亚马逊可能每台Kindle Fire就要亏损50美元。最后,苹果的供应链、制造和分销能力使其与亚马逊相比更具竞争优势,后者可能会发现很难为圣诞销售旺季生产出上百万台Kindle Fire。

    明斯特预计苹果在平板电脑市场的份额将从现在的90%跌至2012年的60%,Android的市场份额将从目前的不到10%上升到30%左右。他认为Kindle Fire有望成为第一款推动Android平板市场份额增长的产品。

    明斯特此前预计苹果将在2012年售出5,000万台iPad 2,现在他仍坚持这一看法,尽管他认为这一数字可能有些“保守”。

    译者:项航

    The Kindle Fire that Amazon (AMZN) introduced Wednesday is not a true competitor of Apple's (AAPL) iPad, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster declared in a note to clients posted shortly afterward. But, he quickly added, "it is more competitive than we anticipated."

    On the Fire's minus side, he cites:

    • The Kindle Fire's 7" screen compared to the 10" iPad (a bigger difference than the numbers make it seem; a 7" screen is only 45% as large as the iPad's 10" screen.)

    • The Fire has 8GB of storage compared to the iPad at 16GB, 32GB, or 64GB.

    • The iPad has two cameras and a 3G option; the Kindle Fire has neither

    On the Fire's plus side he cites the Kindle's movie, music, and Web browsing capabilities.

    Both companies, he writes, are focusing on their core skills:

    In our view, Apple has focused on a combination of superior hardware and software, leveraging supply-side economies of scale to offer a premium tablet for $499. Alternatively, Amazon appears to be focusing on a product with superior content delivery; the company is leveraging its wide range of content assets available for sale in conjunction with its Cloud Services product for world class, mobile, digital delivery. Apple is also monetizing the hardware upfront with a 30%+ gross margin on the iPad, whereas Amazon is likely losing about $50 per Kindle Fire. Finally, Apple's supply chain, production and distribution capabilities provide a competitive advantage over Amazon, which may find it difficult to produce more than a few million Kindle Fires for the holiday season.

    Munster expects Apple's share of the tablet market to fall from 90% today to 60% in 2012, and for the Android share to rise from less than 10% to about 30%. The Kindle Fire, he says, likely to be one of the first Android tablet to drive those share gains.

    He had previously estimated that Apple would sell 50 million iPads in calendar 2012, and he's sticking with that number, although he believes it may be "conservative."

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