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伊朗的网络报复威胁美国企业,前NSA专家发出警告

Amanda Gerut
2026-03-03

美国企业领导者必须为持续的不确定性做好准备。

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一名头戴面纱的伊朗女子手持手机,屏幕上显示的是伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的肖像。图片来源:Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images

2月28日上午德黑兰遭袭之际,数百万伊朗民众的手机突然收到一条奇怪的推送通知。下载量超过500万次的祈祷应用程序BadeSaba Calendar遭到黑客入侵。根据网络情报公司Flashpoint的评估,该应用程序发布了“援军已到!”的提醒,并呼吁组建“人民军队”来保卫“伊朗兄弟”。3月1日,该应用程序又向伊斯兰革命卫队(Islamic Revolutionary Guard)的普通成员发送了“投降指令”,并向示威者提供了安全集结地点。

随后,政权拥护者迅速展开反击。

Flashpoint指出,3月1日随后发生了名为伊朗“伟大史诗”(Great Epic)的网络行动,这是迄今为止“最为激进”的一次攻击。该行动由名为“网络伊斯兰抵抗”(Cyber Islamic Resistance)的频道统筹,属于一个松散协作的网络行动组织。在该组织的框架下,多名网络攻击者曾经关闭约旦的加油站系统,对美国及以色列的军事供应商发起攻击,破坏数据,并效仿BadeSaba被黑事件发起心理战。

Flashpoint在最新通报中指出,未来48小时很可能出现“极度动荡”时期,届时黑客行动主义者及其代理组织将“率先升级行动,填补德黑兰中央指挥体系留下的权力真空”。Flashpoint威胁情报团队负责人、前美国国家安全局(NSA)专家凯瑟琳·雷恩斯表示,这些行动者据称正在利用Telegram和Reddit作为协调平台,发布所谓攻击截图以示“战果”,但相关信息的真实性往往需要数周甚至数月时间才能核实。

BadeSaba被黑事件为伊朗代理组织提供了一种可“反向应用”的操作范本,以类似手法对付西方企业及其他目标。雷恩斯指出,由于2月28日的打击行动几乎瓦解了伊朗的最高领导层,原本统筹德黑兰网络行动的指挥体系基本不复存在。

她告诉《财富》杂志:“伊朗领导层的权力真空,很可能导致更不可预测、更加分散的代理攻击。”

在实际操作层面,这意味着立场一致的黑客行动主义者和代理组织可能自行决定攻击目标,而无需获得中央授权。雷恩斯称,如果某个激进团体为了“表达立场”而决定攻击一家中型物流企业,其风险就将外溢到德黑兰、华盛顿或纽约以外的地区。

她警告道:“主动权掌握在Telegram群组里19岁黑客的手中,几乎没有任何监督或指挥。”

因此,人工智能安全公司Andesite联合创始人及首席执行官、前美国中央情报局(CIA)精锐“特别行动中心”(Special Activities Center)负责人布莱恩·卡博表示,美国企业领导者必须为持续的不确定性做好准备。他指出,多年来,伊朗无论作为政府还是作为抵抗力量,都展现出极强的韧性。鉴于伊朗正在轰炸邻国,人们应当预期,伊朗除了动用导弹与遍布全球的武装代理力量之外,还将继续释放其强大的网络攻击能力。

曾经担任两任美国中央情报局局长幕僚长的卡博说:“激进且富有创造性的抵抗,早已融入伊朗安全体系以及整个伊斯兰共和国的精神内核。对于企业领导者以及那些负责保护企业的高层决策者而言,他们必须做好长期应对这种局面的准备,并意识到冲突可能朝着不同方向演变,局势随时可能发生转折。”

卡博认为,美国与以色列的打击削弱了伊朗的常规军事能力,这反倒让网络攻击变成了伊朗手中更有吸引力的一张牌。这种手段部署成本低、难以溯源,却能以相对有限的投入制造巨大的心理与运营层面的冲击。例如,伊朗已经证明其能够模仿并升级由俄罗斯首创的一些网络攻击方式。

卡博表示:“伊朗伊斯兰共和国向来对其安全体系内的网络能力引以为傲。”这种自豪感不太可能因为高层领导遇袭身亡而消失,反而可能随着选择减少而得到进一步强化。

雷恩斯则指出,大多数企业的安全预案尚未准备好应对类似BadeSaba黑客事件。该事件在打击行动刚开始之际,向数百万名使用该应用程序记录每日宗教日程的伊朗穆斯林推送通知。

她解释道:“企业其实并未准备好应对我所说的‘虚无主义的心理战’。这种攻击的真正目标是员工的心理状态与信任感。”她认为这种行动与旨在窃取数据或瘫痪系统的传统网络攻击有所区别。

这种攻击在企业层面可能表现为:海湾地区的员工突然收到看似紧急的信息,可能是模仿其区域负责人或首席执行官的深度伪造语音,或是假借公司名义发布的撤离通知。然而,在当地新闻停摆、互联网连接极其有限的情况下,人们几乎没有能力核实这些信息的真伪。

雷恩斯指出,很少有企业制定预案,以应对事件发生后数小时内员工面临的现实处境;同时,风险建模往往基于国家行为与假定的“红线”,假设各方会避免全面战争。

她预测,对于本周即将召开会议的董事会与高管层而言,安全负责人必须回答的关键问题是,业务系统在离线状态下最长能持续多久,以免影响到企业营收与声誉。

她表示:“我们关注的已经不再是拦截率,而是更关心恢复时间。”

卡博称,如果他本周参加董事会会议,他迫切想要知道,基于当前的伊朗局势,企业是否处于更高风险之中?如果答案是肯定的,他就会进一步追问已经采取哪些措施减缓风险;如果答案是否定的,他将会提出更多问题。

他指出,管理层应当了解企业已经采取哪些措施来确保业务不受威胁,弄清楚企业如何与合作伙伴及其他方合作共享如何检测攻击,以及在此过程中如何利用人工智能技术。

卡博重申,这并非一场短期内即可化解的危机,其衍生的网络风险也不会立即消散。

卡博说:“这场冲突可能出现诸多转折,并朝着多个方向演变。我认为这不是可以在几天内就圆满解决的问题。这就要求我们持续保持警惕,加强网络防御、保护实体以及其他各类资产的安全。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

2月28日上午德黑兰遭袭之际,数百万伊朗民众的手机突然收到一条奇怪的推送通知。下载量超过500万次的祈祷应用程序BadeSaba Calendar遭到黑客入侵。根据网络情报公司Flashpoint的评估,该应用程序发布了“援军已到!”的提醒,并呼吁组建“人民军队”来保卫“伊朗兄弟”。3月1日,该应用程序又向伊斯兰革命卫队(Islamic Revolutionary Guard)的普通成员发送了“投降指令”,并向示威者提供了安全集结地点。

随后,政权拥护者迅速展开反击。

Flashpoint指出,3月1日随后发生了名为伊朗“伟大史诗”(Great Epic)的网络行动,这是迄今为止“最为激进”的一次攻击。该行动由名为“网络伊斯兰抵抗”(Cyber Islamic Resistance)的频道统筹,属于一个松散协作的网络行动组织。在该组织的框架下,多名网络攻击者曾经关闭约旦的加油站系统,对美国及以色列的军事供应商发起攻击,破坏数据,并效仿BadeSaba被黑事件发起心理战。

Flashpoint在最新通报中指出,未来48小时很可能出现“极度动荡”时期,届时黑客行动主义者及其代理组织将“率先升级行动,填补德黑兰中央指挥体系留下的权力真空”。Flashpoint威胁情报团队负责人、前美国国家安全局(NSA)专家凯瑟琳·雷恩斯表示,这些行动者据称正在利用Telegram和Reddit作为协调平台,发布所谓攻击截图以示“战果”,但相关信息的真实性往往需要数周甚至数月时间才能核实。

BadeSaba被黑事件为伊朗代理组织提供了一种可“反向应用”的操作范本,以类似手法对付西方企业及其他目标。雷恩斯指出,由于2月28日的打击行动几乎瓦解了伊朗的最高领导层,原本统筹德黑兰网络行动的指挥体系基本不复存在。

她告诉《财富》杂志:“伊朗领导层的权力真空,很可能导致更不可预测、更加分散的代理攻击。”

在实际操作层面,这意味着立场一致的黑客行动主义者和代理组织可能自行决定攻击目标,而无需获得中央授权。雷恩斯称,如果某个激进团体为了“表达立场”而决定攻击一家中型物流企业,其风险就将外溢到德黑兰、华盛顿或纽约以外的地区。

她警告道:“主动权掌握在Telegram群组里19岁黑客的手中,几乎没有任何监督或指挥。”

因此,人工智能安全公司Andesite联合创始人及首席执行官、前美国中央情报局(CIA)精锐“特别行动中心”(Special Activities Center)负责人布莱恩·卡博表示,美国企业领导者必须为持续的不确定性做好准备。他指出,多年来,伊朗无论作为政府还是作为抵抗力量,都展现出极强的韧性。鉴于伊朗正在轰炸邻国,人们应当预期,伊朗除了动用导弹与遍布全球的武装代理力量之外,还将继续释放其强大的网络攻击能力。

曾经担任两任美国中央情报局局长幕僚长的卡博说:“激进且富有创造性的抵抗,早已融入伊朗安全体系以及整个伊斯兰共和国的精神内核。对于企业领导者以及那些负责保护企业的高层决策者而言,他们必须做好长期应对这种局面的准备,并意识到冲突可能朝着不同方向演变,局势随时可能发生转折。”

卡博认为,美国与以色列的打击削弱了伊朗的常规军事能力,这反倒让网络攻击变成了伊朗手中更有吸引力的一张牌。这种手段部署成本低、难以溯源,却能以相对有限的投入制造巨大的心理与运营层面的冲击。例如,伊朗已经证明其能够模仿并升级由俄罗斯首创的一些网络攻击方式。

卡博表示:“伊朗伊斯兰共和国向来对其安全体系内的网络能力引以为傲。”这种自豪感不太可能因为高层领导遇袭身亡而消失,反而可能随着选择减少而得到进一步强化。

雷恩斯则指出,大多数企业的安全预案尚未准备好应对类似BadeSaba黑客事件。该事件在打击行动刚开始之际,向数百万名使用该应用程序记录每日宗教日程的伊朗穆斯林推送通知。

她解释道:“企业其实并未准备好应对我所说的‘虚无主义的心理战’。这种攻击的真正目标是员工的心理状态与信任感。”她认为这种行动与旨在窃取数据或瘫痪系统的传统网络攻击有所区别。

这种攻击在企业层面可能表现为:海湾地区的员工突然收到看似紧急的信息,可能是模仿其区域负责人或首席执行官的深度伪造语音,或是假借公司名义发布的撤离通知。然而,在当地新闻停摆、互联网连接极其有限的情况下,人们几乎没有能力核实这些信息的真伪。

雷恩斯指出,很少有企业制定预案,以应对事件发生后数小时内员工面临的现实处境;同时,风险建模往往基于国家行为与假定的“红线”,假设各方会避免全面战争。

她预测,对于本周即将召开会议的董事会与高管层而言,安全负责人必须回答的关键问题是,业务系统在离线状态下最长能持续多久,以免影响到企业营收与声誉。

她表示:“我们关注的已经不再是拦截率,而是更关心恢复时间。”

卡博称,如果他本周参加董事会会议,他迫切想要知道,基于当前的伊朗局势,企业是否处于更高风险之中?如果答案是肯定的,他就会进一步追问已经采取哪些措施减缓风险;如果答案是否定的,他将会提出更多问题。

他指出,管理层应当了解企业已经采取哪些措施来确保业务不受威胁,弄清楚企业如何与合作伙伴及其他方合作共享如何检测攻击,以及在此过程中如何利用人工智能技术。

卡博重申,这并非一场短期内即可化解的危机,其衍生的网络风险也不会立即消散。

卡博说:“这场冲突可能出现诸多转折,并朝着多个方向演变。我认为这不是可以在几天内就圆满解决的问题。这就要求我们持续保持警惕,加强网络防御、保护实体以及其他各类资产的安全。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

As strikes hit Tehran on February 28 morning, millions of Iranians got a strange push notification on their phones. The BadeSaba Calendar prayer app, which has more than 5 million downloads, had been compromised, and the app issued alerts saying, “Help has arrived!” and called for a “People’s Army” to defend their “Iranian brothers,” according to an assessment from cyber intel firm Flashpoint. On March 1, the app sent with surrender instructions for rank-and-file members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and safe locations for protesters to gather.

Then regime loyalists quickly struck back.

According to Flashpoint, what followed on March 1 was the “most aggressive” use so far of what’s known as Iran’s “Great Epic” cyber campaign, which is a loosely coordinated group of cyber operatives under a channel called the “Cyber Islamic Resistance.” Under the group’s umbrella, various cyber attackers have shut down gas stations in Jordan, and led attacks against U.S. and Israeli military providers to destroy data as well as conduct psychological operations mimicking the BadeSaba hack.

The next 48 hours are likely to be a period of “extreme volatility” where hacktivists and proxies “take the lead in escalation to fill the vacuum left by Tehran’s central command,” Flashpoint noted in an update. These actors are allegedly using Telegram and Reddit as a coordination hub, posting screenshots of alleged attacks as proof, although it takes weeks and sometimes months to verify accuracy, said Kathryn Raines, a former NSA expert who is now a threat intel team lead at Flashpoint.

The BadeSaba hack demonstrates the template that Iranian proxy groups could now try to deploy in reverse against Western companies and others. Plus, with Iranian leadership effectively decimated by February 28’s strikes, the command structure that oversaw Tehran’s cyber operations is essentially gone, said Raines.

“The Iranian leadership vacuum is likely going to lead to more unpredictable, decentralized proxy attacks,” she told Fortune.

In practice, that means aligned hacktivists and proxy groups are making their own targeting decisions, without approval from central authorities. So if a highly aggressive group decides to hit a mid-sized logistics firm because to make a statement, the risk cascades beyond Tehran, Washington, D.C., or New York, said Raines.

“It’s in the hands of a 19-year-old hacker in a Telegram room with really no oversight or direction,” she warned.

Accordingly, U.S. business leaders need to be prepared for continued uncertainty, said Brian Carbaugh, co-founder and CEO of AI-based security firm Andesite and former director of the CIA’s elite Special Activities Center (SAC). Iranians have consistently shown over the years that they are incredibly resilient as a government and resistance force. And given that the regime is bombarding its neighbors, people should expect Iran to continue unleashing their formidable offensive cyber capabilities in addition to other aspects of national power like their missiles and armed proxies around the world, he said.

“Aggressive and creative resistance is baked into the ethos of the Iranian security apparatus and across the Islamic Republic of Iran,” said Carbaugh, who previously served as chief of staff to two CIA directors. “For business leaders and those protecting businesses and making decisions at a very high level, they need to be prepared for this to continue on for some time and for the conflict to take a number of different courses of direction and swerve around the road.”

As U.S. and Israeli attacks degrade Iran’s conventional military capabilities, cyber attacks appear more attractive, said Carbaugh. It’s low-cost to deploy, difficult to attribute, and extremely capable of creating outsized psychological and operational disruption relative to the investment required. Iran has shown that it is capable of emulating and building on cyber attack methods first shown by Russia, for example.

“The Islamic Republic has always had great pride in cyber capabilities within the security services,” said Carbaugh. That pride isn’t likely to evaporate with the loss of senior leadership, and may intensify as other options narrow.

According to Raines, most corporate security plans aren’t ready for attacks like the BadeSaba hack, which pushed a notification to potentially millions of Muslims in Iran who use the app to track daily religious schedules at the moment the strikes were starting.

“Companies aren’t really prepared for what I’ll call nihilistic psychological operations that are really meant to target the mental state and trust of their workforce,” she explained, contrasting them with attacks designed to steal data and disable systems.

It could manifest in businesses like this: Staff in the Gulf region start getting what appear to be urgent messages, perhaps deepfake audio attributed to their regional leader or CEO, or communications purportedly from the company on evacuations. But with local news offline and scant internet service, people will have very little ability to fact check anything.

Few companies have plans in place for what employees’ reality will be in the hours that follow, while risk modeling is often based on state behavior and assumed “red lines” that prevent total war, Raines noted.

For boards and C-suites convening this upcoming week, key questions for security leaders will have to do with the maximum amount of time business functions can be offline before it hits revenue and reputation, she predicted.

“We’re less interested in the block rate, and more interested in recovery time,” said Raines.

Carbaugh said if he were on a board call this week, he would want to know if the business was at an elevated level of risk based on what’s happening in Iran. If the answer is yes, he would want to know what’s being done to mitigate. If the answer is no, he would ask even more questions.

Leaders should find out what steps have been taken to ensure businesses aren’t at risk, figure out how companies have engaged with partners and others to find out how they’re detecting attacks, and how AI is currently being used in doing so, Carbaugh said.

He reiterated that this isn’t a crisis with a near-term resolution, and it translates into cyber risk that won’t immediately dissipate.

“This conflict could take many twists and turns and move in a lot of different directions,” said Carbaugh. “I don’t think this is going to be one we’re going to tidily wrap up and move on from in a few days. This will require constant vigilance and protection of our cyber networks, physical security, and all other assets.”

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