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苏铭天:人工智能的“奥本海默时刻”已经错过

Allie Garfinkle
2025-11-03

苏铭天指出,科技公司及其领军人物(如埃隆·马斯克)如今拥有巨大的财富与影响力,以至于各国政府难以对其施加真正有力的监管。

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苏铭天爵士出席在利雅得举行的2025年《财富》全球论坛。图片来源:Fortune

尽管人工智能监管已成为各国政府与科技界高层热议的话题,但“管好它”的时机或许已经错过。

上周在利雅得举行的2025年《财富》全球论坛上,S4 Capital创始人兼执行董事长苏铭天爵士表示:“未来的监管只能依靠行业自律。许多人将人工智能的风险与核武器相提并论,然而木已成舟,我们已经错失人工智能管控的‘奥本海默时刻’。”

作为广告巨头WPP的创始人,苏铭天指出,科技公司及其领军人物(如埃隆·马斯克)如今拥有巨大的财富与影响力,以至于各国政府难以对其施加真正有力的监管。

苏铭天对现场观众表示:“苹果(Apple)市值已达4万亿美元,而马斯克的最新薪酬计划更是以特斯拉(Tesla)市值达到10万亿美元为目标。我深信马斯克或特斯拉终将实现这一目标。总有一天,市场上会出现一家市值达10万亿美元的公司。换个角度看,除了中美两国,10万亿美元的体量几乎相当于世界第三大经济体。这些公司堪比‘主权实体’,而政府对它们的掌控力已经变得有限。”

从某种意义上说,苏铭天的预言正在应验。近日,英伟达(Nvidia)成为史上首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普透露与英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋会面后,该芯片巨头的股价应声上涨。

苏铭天还预测,未来“虚拟人物”或“合成形象”的应用将迅速普及,尤其在广告领域。

他表示:“据我们判断,在未来两三年内,这类应用将变得司空见惯。原因很简单——经济效益。广告业正面临颠覆性变革,制作成本可削减高达80%至90%。在降低创意成本的同时,为媒体投放腾出更多预算,将在未来变得愈发重要。”(财富中文网)

译者:郝秀

审校:汪皓

尽管人工智能监管已成为各国政府与科技界高层热议的话题,但“管好它”的时机或许已经错过。

上周在利雅得举行的2025年《财富》全球论坛上,S4 Capital创始人兼执行董事长苏铭天爵士表示:“未来的监管只能依靠行业自律。许多人将人工智能的风险与核武器相提并论,然而木已成舟,我们已经错失人工智能管控的‘奥本海默时刻’。”

作为广告巨头WPP的创始人,苏铭天指出,科技公司及其领军人物(如埃隆·马斯克)如今拥有巨大的财富与影响力,以至于各国政府难以对其施加真正有力的监管。

苏铭天对现场观众表示:“苹果(Apple)市值已达4万亿美元,而马斯克的最新薪酬计划更是以特斯拉(Tesla)市值达到10万亿美元为目标。我深信马斯克或特斯拉终将实现这一目标。总有一天,市场上会出现一家市值达10万亿美元的公司。换个角度看,除了中美两国,10万亿美元的体量几乎相当于世界第三大经济体。这些公司堪比‘主权实体’,而政府对它们的掌控力已经变得有限。”

从某种意义上说,苏铭天的预言正在应验。近日,英伟达(Nvidia)成为史上首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普透露与英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋会面后,该芯片巨头的股价应声上涨。

苏铭天还预测,未来“虚拟人物”或“合成形象”的应用将迅速普及,尤其在广告领域。

他表示:“据我们判断,在未来两三年内,这类应用将变得司空见惯。原因很简单——经济效益。广告业正面临颠覆性变革,制作成本可削减高达80%至90%。在降低创意成本的同时,为媒体投放腾出更多预算,将在未来变得愈发重要。”(财富中文网)

译者:郝秀

审校:汪皓

Regulating AI may be a prevalent topic at the highest levels of government and tech, but the moment to get it right may have already passed.

“Regulation is going to have to be self-regulation,” said Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and executive chairman of S4 Capital, this week at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh. “The cat is out of the bag. We’ve missed the Oppenheimer moment. Many people compare it to the control of nuclear weapons.”

Sorrell—famed as the founder of advertising giant WPP—went on to explain that tech companies and individual figures like Elon Musk are simply too rich and influential for governments to meaningfully bring down a regulatory hammer.

“Apple’s at $4 trillion, and Musk’s compensation in his latest plan is geared to a $10 trillion valuation,” Sorrell told the audience. “I have no doubt that Musk or Tesla will get to that valuation. At some point, we’ll have a $10 trillion company. To put that into perspective, other than the United States and China, a $10 trillion company would effectively be the third-biggest [economy in the world]. They’re nation-states. The ability of governments to control them, I think, has become limited.”

In some sense, we’re already halfway to Sorrell’s prediction: This week, Nvidia became the first $5 trillion company in history. The chipmaking behemoth’s shares shot up in the aftermath of comments from President Donald Trump about meeting with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

Looking ahead, Sorrell also foresees that, especially in advertising, we’re soon set to see audiences lean into and accept “the use of synthetic people … imaginary people in advertising.”

“Our view is that over the next two to three years that will become commonplace,” he said. “The reason is economics. We’re talking about a huge disruption. You’re talking about reductions of as much as 80% to 90% of production costs, out the window, and taking create costs down—whilst media costs and creating more money for media investment will become more and more important.”

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