
著名投资人凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood )指出,随着美国经济从降息环境转向加息环境,可能将面临一轮“震荡”。
方舟投资首席执行官伍德近日表示,尽管美联储上周进行今年第二次降息,但她认为明年某个时候利率政策将转向上升。
伍德在接受CNBC采访时表示,届时“市场将会出现震荡”。尽管历史表明,加息未必会抑制推动市场增长的创新活动。
“即使在2017年利率上升时,市场表现也非常出色,”伍德说,“我想纠正人们的这种看法。但尽管如此,考虑到当今算法交易的运作方式,我们认为市场将面临一次现实检验。”
伍德表示,股市回调的可能性不会阻碍她的投资步伐,方舟投资将继续投资于机器人、人工智能、区块链和储能等创新领域。
她指出,医疗领域的多组学测序——一种利用多层生物数据诊断疾病的深度分析方法——是方舟投资中“最被低估和最不受重视”的创新领域。
总体而言,伍德对经济仍持乐观态度。尽管有人担心,在科技股估值大幅上涨(部分由人工智能热潮推动)的背景下,市场可能出现”泡沫”,但伍德认为人工智能并未引发泡沫。
她预计,即将到来的生产力繁荣将在今年晚些时候助推股市进一步上涨。
伍德表示:“我们认为美国经济——当然世界其他地区也会参与——将进入一轮生产力驱动的繁荣期,时机正好赶上我们的中期选举。”
美国经济的不确定性
有迹象表明,企业正利用人工智能以更少的人力实现更高的产出。亚马逊上周宣布,今年将裁减1.4万名办公室员工,同时进一步投资人工智能以“实现效率提升”。Salesforce今年早些时候也从客户支持部门裁撤了4000名员工。
然而,在当前不稳定因素下,未来几个月美国经济走势尚不明朗。特朗普政府虽在今年早些时候通过了《大而美法案》(伍德称该法案将推动创新),但其关税政策也反复无常。上周,在加拿大安大略省播放了一则以美国前总统罗纳德·里根为主角的反关税广告后,特朗普总统对贸易伙伴加拿大加征了10%的额外关税。
不过,伍德肯定了政府在监管与创新方面的做法,并表示其政策总体上有利于企业。
“他们非常专注于去监管化,大规模的去监管化。我们设立了加密货币与人工智能事务主管——这是前所未有的——并且他们专注于推行对企业友好的政策,吸引更多外国直接投资进入美国,尤其是在制造业领域。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
著名投资人凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood )指出,随着美国经济从降息环境转向加息环境,可能将面临一轮“震荡”。
方舟投资首席执行官伍德近日表示,尽管美联储上周进行今年第二次降息,但她认为明年某个时候利率政策将转向上升。
伍德在接受CNBC采访时表示,届时“市场将会出现震荡”。尽管历史表明,加息未必会抑制推动市场增长的创新活动。
“即使在2017年利率上升时,市场表现也非常出色,”伍德说,“我想纠正人们的这种看法。但尽管如此,考虑到当今算法交易的运作方式,我们认为市场将面临一次现实检验。”
伍德表示,股市回调的可能性不会阻碍她的投资步伐,方舟投资将继续投资于机器人、人工智能、区块链和储能等创新领域。
她指出,医疗领域的多组学测序——一种利用多层生物数据诊断疾病的深度分析方法——是方舟投资中“最被低估和最不受重视”的创新领域。
总体而言,伍德对经济仍持乐观态度。尽管有人担心,在科技股估值大幅上涨(部分由人工智能热潮推动)的背景下,市场可能出现”泡沫”,但伍德认为人工智能并未引发泡沫。
她预计,即将到来的生产力繁荣将在今年晚些时候助推股市进一步上涨。
伍德表示:“我们认为美国经济——当然世界其他地区也会参与——将进入一轮生产力驱动的繁荣期,时机正好赶上我们的中期选举。”
美国经济的不确定性
有迹象表明,企业正利用人工智能以更少的人力实现更高的产出。亚马逊上周宣布,今年将裁减1.4万名办公室员工,同时进一步投资人工智能以“实现效率提升”。Salesforce今年早些时候也从客户支持部门裁撤了4000名员工。
然而,在当前不稳定因素下,未来几个月美国经济走势尚不明朗。特朗普政府虽在今年早些时候通过了《大而美法案》(伍德称该法案将推动创新),但其关税政策也反复无常。上周,在加拿大安大略省播放了一则以美国前总统罗纳德·里根为主角的反关税广告后,特朗普总统对贸易伙伴加拿大加征了10%的额外关税。
不过,伍德肯定了政府在监管与创新方面的做法,并表示其政策总体上有利于企业。
“他们非常专注于去监管化,大规模的去监管化。我们设立了加密货币与人工智能事务主管——这是前所未有的——并且他们专注于推行对企业友好的政策,吸引更多外国直接投资进入美国,尤其是在制造业领域。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
Investor Cathie Wood said the U.S. economy may be in for a “shudder” as it adjusts from an environment of decreasing interest rates to one where interest rates are rising.
Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest (方舟投资), said sometime in the next year there will be a shift toward rising interest rates, even as the Fed is widely predicted this week to cut rates for the second time this year.
When this happens, “there will be a shudder,” Wood told CNBC, even though history shows higher interest rates aren't necessarily correlated with lower innovation, which fuels market gains.
“Even in 2017 when interest rates went up, we had phenomenal performance,” said Wood. “I want to disabuse people of that notion. But nonetheless, the way algorithms work these days, we think that there will be a reality check.”
Wood said she is not deterred by the possibility of a stock market pullback, and ARK Invest is continuing to invest in innovation plays around robotics, AI, blockchain, and energy storage.
Multi-omic sequencing in the health care space—a deep analytical approach using multiple layers of biological data to diagnose diseases—is “the most underestimated and underappreciated” area of innovation ARK is investing in, she said.
Overall, Wood is still bullish on the economy. While some fear a “bubble” on the horizon thanks to the massive increase in tech stock valuations, in part led by the AI boom, Wood said AI is not causing a bubble.
She bets that a coming productivity boom will help push the stock market up even further later this year.
“We think that the economy, the U.S.—and the rest of the world, of course, will participate—is going to move into a productivity-driven boom, just in time for our midterm election,” Wood said.
Economic Uncertainty
There are some signs that corporations are using AI to get more out of fewer workers. Amazon said this week it would cut 14,000 office workers this year as it invests further in AI to “realize efficiency gains.” Salesforce also laid off 4,000 workers from its customer-support division earlier this year.
Still, it's unclear how the economy will fare in the coming months amid instability. The Trump administration, despite passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this year, which Wood said will fuel innovation, has also whipsawed on tariffs. Last week, President Trump levied an additional 10% tariff on trading partner Canada after the province of Ontario aired an anti-tariff ad that featured former President Ronald Reagan.
Wood, though, credits the administration with its approach to regulation and innovation and said its policies could help business overall.
“They're very focused on deregulation, massive deregulation. We have a crypto and AI czar—never have had that before—and they're focused on business-friendly policies, inviting more foreign direct investment into the United States, especially in the manufacturing realm.”