
唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税政策令全美商界领袖胆战心惊,但却有几家零售业巨头的首席执行官在这场风暴中显得相对镇定。
上个月,特朗普威胁对墨西哥、加拿大和中国全面加征关税。尽管北美邻国暂时获得两次豁免,但朝令夕改的政策制定方式仍引起了市场恐慌,尤其是在特朗普拒绝排除这些政策可能在今年晚些时候引发经济衰退的可能性之后。
一些商界领袖已对新增关税发出严厉警告,福特(Ford)首席执行官吉姆·法利甚至断言此举将“对美国工业造成前所未见的打击”。但多位零售业的首席执行官在近期的财报电话会议上,对贸易战前景却表现得相当乐观,理由是其已经实现了供应链多元化,且拥有应对关税的历史经验。
沃尔玛(Walmart Inc)首席执行官董明伦上个月表示:“关税是我们多年来一直在应对的课题,未来我们也将继续面对这个问题。”家得宝(Home Depot)首席执行官泰德·德克尔呼应了这一观点,称“我们经历过类似局面,我相信我们拥有最优秀的团队,足以应对任何可能广泛影响整个行业的关税环境”。塔吉特(Target)首席执行官布莱恩·康奈尔上周同样表现得相当冷静,他向投资者表示该公司“以往曾成功应对关税挑战”。
在特朗普首个任期内,许多零售商就不得不进行关税谈判。而且过去十年间,他们持续推进供应链多元化,不断扩大采购来源国范围。以服装为主营业务的零售商尤其如此,例如Abercrombie & Fitch和Gap两家公司在近期的财报电话会议中都强调其全球多元化采购布局。彭博社的分析显示,2017年,中国制造服装占美国进口服装总量的34%,到2023年,该比例已降至20%,产能转移至越南、孟加拉国等地。
但这并不意味着所有零售企业都高枕无忧。百思买(Best Buy)首席执行官科里·巴里指出,虽然该公司直接进口商品仅占销售额的约2%,其余销售额均来自电子产品供应商,但关税可能引发的连锁反应,最终会转嫁至消费者。巴里表示:“预计各品类供应商都会将部分关税成本转嫁给零售商,美国消费者极可能面临涨价。”百思买预估2025年关税可能使可比销售额下降约1%。
克罗格(Kroger)等食品杂货企业的高管预计,生菜等生鲜食品可能涨价,冬季从气候较温暖的墨西哥进口的其他日常必需品价格也会上涨。沃尔玛、塔吉特等大型零售商的生鲜业务也面临同样的情况。康奈尔表示,若关税生效,消费者将很快感受到新鲜果蔬等商品在“数日内”价格上涨。
无论近期关税政策如何演变,特朗普的最新举措正促使众多美国企业持续分散海外供应商布局。孩之宝(Hasbro)首席执行官克里斯·科克斯向华尔街分析师透露,该公司计划“在未来两年内将中国产玩具和游戏产品在美国市场的占比从50%降至40%以下”。
尽管美国零售业巨头的首席执行官们表现镇定,但周一股市的抛售潮预示着贸易战可能将美国经济拖入衰退。美国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)估算,现行关税每年可能导致美国消费者的购买力削减460亿至780亿美元。零售业高管们,即便在关税战中身经百战的从业者,都对此保持高度警觉。
塔吉特首席财务官吉姆·李坦言:“我们无法预知的是,关税在整个经济体系中的连锁反应,将如何影响整体消费需求的变化。” (财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税政策令全美商界领袖胆战心惊,但却有几家零售业巨头的首席执行官在这场风暴中显得相对镇定。
上个月,特朗普威胁对墨西哥、加拿大和中国全面加征关税。尽管北美邻国暂时获得两次豁免,但朝令夕改的政策制定方式仍引起了市场恐慌,尤其是在特朗普拒绝排除这些政策可能在今年晚些时候引发经济衰退的可能性之后。
一些商界领袖已对新增关税发出严厉警告,福特(Ford)首席执行官吉姆·法利甚至断言此举将“对美国工业造成前所未见的打击”。但多位零售业的首席执行官在近期的财报电话会议上,对贸易战前景却表现得相当乐观,理由是其已经实现了供应链多元化,且拥有应对关税的历史经验。
沃尔玛(Walmart Inc)首席执行官董明伦上个月表示:“关税是我们多年来一直在应对的课题,未来我们也将继续面对这个问题。”家得宝(Home Depot)首席执行官泰德·德克尔呼应了这一观点,称“我们经历过类似局面,我相信我们拥有最优秀的团队,足以应对任何可能广泛影响整个行业的关税环境”。塔吉特(Target)首席执行官布莱恩·康奈尔上周同样表现得相当冷静,他向投资者表示该公司“以往曾成功应对关税挑战”。
在特朗普首个任期内,许多零售商就不得不进行关税谈判。而且过去十年间,他们持续推进供应链多元化,不断扩大采购来源国范围。以服装为主营业务的零售商尤其如此,例如Abercrombie & Fitch和Gap两家公司在近期的财报电话会议中都强调其全球多元化采购布局。彭博社的分析显示,2017年,中国制造服装占美国进口服装总量的34%,到2023年,该比例已降至20%,产能转移至越南、孟加拉国等地。
但这并不意味着所有零售企业都高枕无忧。百思买(Best Buy)首席执行官科里·巴里指出,虽然该公司直接进口商品仅占销售额的约2%,其余销售额均来自电子产品供应商,但关税可能引发的连锁反应,最终会转嫁至消费者。巴里表示:“预计各品类供应商都会将部分关税成本转嫁给零售商,美国消费者极可能面临涨价。”百思买预估2025年关税可能使可比销售额下降约1%。
克罗格(Kroger)等食品杂货企业的高管预计,生菜等生鲜食品可能涨价,冬季从气候较温暖的墨西哥进口的其他日常必需品价格也会上涨。沃尔玛、塔吉特等大型零售商的生鲜业务也面临同样的情况。康奈尔表示,若关税生效,消费者将很快感受到新鲜果蔬等商品在“数日内”价格上涨。
无论近期关税政策如何演变,特朗普的最新举措正促使众多美国企业持续分散海外供应商布局。孩之宝(Hasbro)首席执行官克里斯·科克斯向华尔街分析师透露,该公司计划“在未来两年内将中国产玩具和游戏产品在美国市场的占比从50%降至40%以下”。
尽管美国零售业巨头的首席执行官们表现镇定,但周一股市的抛售潮预示着贸易战可能将美国经济拖入衰退。美国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)估算,现行关税每年可能导致美国消费者的购买力削减460亿至780亿美元。零售业高管们,即便在关税战中身经百战的从业者,都对此保持高度警觉。
塔吉特首席财务官吉姆·李坦言:“我们无法预知的是,关税在整个经济体系中的连锁反应,将如何影响整体消费需求的变化。” (财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
As President Donald Trump’s tariff policies strike fear in the hearts of business leaders across the U.S., a handful of major retail CEOs are sounding relatively calm about the whole ordeal.
Last month, Trump threatened to impose across-the-board levies on Mexico, Canada and China. Although those North American partners have received two reprieves, the on-again-off-again policymaking is spooking the markets, especially after the president refused to rule out the possibility of those policies creating a recession later this year.
Some business leaders have issued dire warnings about the new tariffs, with Ford CEO Jim Farley going as far as to say they will “blow a hole in the U.S. industry that we have never seen.” But several retail CEOs have been downright sanguine about the prospect of a trade war on recent earnings calls, citing their diversified supply chains, and previous experience weathering tariffs.
“Tariffs are something we’ve managed for many years, and we’ll just continue to manage that,” said Walmart Inc CEO Doug McMillon last month. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker echoed that sentiment, saying “we’ve been through that before, and I think we have the best team to manage through any tariff environment which would impact the industry broadly.” Target chief Brian Cornell was equally even keeled last week, telling investors that the company has “managed through tariffs in the past.”
Many retailers were forced to negotiate tariffs during Trump’s first term. And they have also spent the past decade diversifying their supply chains, and expanding the number of countries from which they buy their merchandise. That’s particularly true for clothing-focused retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap, both of whom touted diversified geographical sourcing on recent earnings calls. Apparel made in China represented 34% of clothing imported to the U.S. in 2017, according to a Bloomberg analysis. By 2023, that number was down to 20%, as countries moved their production to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.
But that’s not to say that all retail companies are feeling calm. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said that while the company only directly imports 2% or so of what it sells, the rest coming from electronics vendors, the tariffs could cause a ripple effect that would ultimately hit consumers. “We expect our vendors across our entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers highly likely,” Barry said. Best Buy estimates the tariffs could hit comparable sales in 2025 to the tune of 1%.
Grocery executives at Kroger ] also expect fresh food like lettuce to get more expensive, along with other staples that U.S. companies import from warmer Mexican climates during the winter. That applies to the burgeoning grocery businesses of big box retailers like Walmart and Target as well. Cornell said that if tariffs go into effect, consumers would see price hikes on items like fresh fruit and vegetables “within days.”
No matter what happens with tariffs in the near future, Trump’s latest moves are prompting a number of U.S. companies to keep diversifying their overseas suppliers base. Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks told Wall Street analysts that the company was “on a path to move from 50% of our U.S. toy and game volume originating from China to under 40% over the next two years.”
And despite the unruffled demeanor of America’s top retail CEOs, Wall Street’s selloff on Monday suggests that trade wars could sink the economy into a recession. The National Retail Federation has estimated American consumers’ spending power could fall by between $46 billion and $78 billion every year they are in place. And that does indeed have retail executives, even veterans of the tariff wars, watching closely.
“What we don’t know is the potential consumer demand that’s across the board based on how tariffs ripple across the economy,” said Target finance chief Jim Lee.